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Yes, Special Elections Really Are Signaling A Better-Than-Expected Midterm For Democrats
fivethirtyeight ^ | 08/24/2022 | Nathaniel Rakich

Posted on 08/25/2022 8:59:52 AM PDT by ChicagoConservative27

In your typical midterm election with an unpopular Democratic president, you’d expect Republicans to be flying high. But the evidence is mounting that the national political environment right now actually leans toward Democrats.

On Tuesday, Democrat Pat Ryan defeated Republican Marc Molinaro in a special election for New York’s swingy 19th Congressional District by 2 percentage points, 51 percent to 49 percent.1 At the same time, Republican Joe Sempolinski defeated Democrat Max Della Pia by a closer-than-expected margin of 7 points in the special election for New York’s solid-red 23rd District. On their own, these elections could be dismissed as flukes, chalked up to local factors or particularly strong or weak candidates. But given how these two elections are part of a larger pattern of good results for Democrats over the last two months, they suddenly look a lot more like signal than noise.

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: New York; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: 23rddistrict; 538; alreadyposted; corruptnyc; democrats; elections; electionz; electionzzz; elekchunz; fakenews; fivethirtyeight; midterm; nathanielrakich; signaling; stolenelection; stopthesteal; whypostthisgarbage
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Wrong again stupid
1 posted on 08/25/2022 8:59:52 AM PDT by ChicagoConservative27
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To: ChicagoConservative27

I guess they forgot about Liz’s 37% shellacking.


2 posted on 08/25/2022 9:01:19 AM PDT by Ge0ffrey
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To: ChicagoConservative27

Whatever happens in NY means absolutely nothing


3 posted on 08/25/2022 9:01:20 AM PDT by Eccl 10:2 (Prov 3:5 --- "Trust in the Lord with all your heart, and lean not on your own understanding")
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To: ChicagoConservative27

How many unattributable mail-in ballots were received in any of these elections?


4 posted on 08/25/2022 9:02:41 AM PDT by qaz123
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To: ChicagoConservative27

Like Delta Tau Chi’s midterm grades. Hope springs eternal.


5 posted on 08/25/2022 9:02:51 AM PDT by SpaceBar
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To: ChicagoConservative27

They keep pointing to NY 19 with no clue of what happened or no care for what happened.

But let them continue in their misbelief.


6 posted on 08/25/2022 9:05:25 AM PDT by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
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To: ChicagoConservative27

These folks are rarely right about an election, but they are also probably plugged into the Dem machine. I don’t doubt that there will be some shenanigans going on with this election. These polls/prognostications are laying the groundwork for the Dems retaining Congress via hook and/or crook.


7 posted on 08/25/2022 9:06:58 AM PDT by woweeitsme
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To: qaz123

I remember a time when branDUHn had nearly ZERO chance of winning. Now we know why they didn’t bother to campaign much. Because they knew the outcome. More votes than obxxx? Uh, okay....... Don’t underestimate their abilities. 🙅


8 posted on 08/25/2022 9:07:10 AM PDT by rktman (Destroy America from within? Check! WTH? Enlisted USN 1967 to end up with this? 😕)
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To: ChicagoConservative27

Sheesh the rats get one semi-surprise special election win in NY so now they are keeping both houses.


9 posted on 08/25/2022 9:07:23 AM PDT by gibsonguy
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To: ChicagoConservative27

They better give John Fetterman his bong back.


10 posted on 08/25/2022 9:07:39 AM PDT by Nextrush (FREEDOM IS EVERBODY'S BUSINESS-REMEMBER PASTOR NIEMOLLER)
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To: ChicagoConservative27

Anyone who votes DemoRat deserves every ounce of the rotten putrid consequences from it. It is said that people choose their way into hell. Must be something to that.


11 posted on 08/25/2022 9:07:39 AM PDT by tflabo (Truth or tyranny )
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Comment #12 Removed by Moderator

To: ChicagoConservative27

There is extremely low turnout for elections to fill open congressional seats for only a few months until the general election, when the seats will be up for election again.


13 posted on 08/25/2022 9:07:57 AM PDT by Bubba_Leroy (Dementia Joe is Not My President.)
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To: ChicagoConservative27

Wait! You must consider the mindset of the typical ‘Progressive’. They will suffer gladly for their agenda even if their policies are destructive. They only hope it hurts their ‘enemy’ (Republicans) more than it hurts them.
No job? Utilities unaffordable? Food shortages? Well, at least I can get an abortion.
As for us, my German mother said, ‘success is the best revenge’.


14 posted on 08/25/2022 9:08:13 AM PDT by griswold3 (When chaos serves the State, the State will encourage chaos.)
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To: ChicagoConservative27

(breathlessly) Did you know that every single election in the USA will go to the Democrats in 2022?


15 posted on 08/25/2022 9:08:39 AM PDT by Lazamataz (The firearms I own today, are the firearms I will die with. How I die will be up to them.)
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To: ChicagoConservative27

Well, then they won’t need all those illegal votes, ballot harvesting, and USPS dump drivers now.


16 posted on 08/25/2022 9:09:15 AM PDT by TribalPrincess2U (D.I.S.T.R.A.C.T.I.O.N.S.)
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To: ChicagoConservative27

You gotta hand it to the left, even In massive defeat, they still try to sound positive. At this point,,all they can do is keep on ankle biting.


17 posted on 08/25/2022 9:09:31 AM PDT by Bob434 (question)
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To: ChicagoConservative27

Yep, all based on one race. New York’s 19th District.


18 posted on 08/25/2022 9:11:04 AM PDT by Parley Baer (WI)
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To: ChicagoConservative27

Indeed wishful hoping causes it.


19 posted on 08/25/2022 9:11:39 AM PDT by Vaduz ( )
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To: ChicagoConservative27

If I were the dems, I wouldn’t even bother campaigning. It is in the bag for them. Happy Days are here again!!!


20 posted on 08/25/2022 9:27:31 AM PDT by FlipWilson
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