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Murkowski advances in Alaska Senate race
The (s)Hill ^ | 8/17/2022 | by Julia Manchester

Posted on 08/17/2022 4:39:28 AM PDT by Lazamataz

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) was projected to advance from the state’s Republican Senate primary, setting her up to compete in November’s midterm general election.

The Associated Press made the call at 1:41 p.m. ET.

The incumbent senator was widely expected to advance from the all-party primary in which the top four vote-getters advanced to the general election.

The primary was seen as a test for former President Trump’s endorsement. Trump backed Murkowski’s primary challenger Kelly Tschibaka in the wake of Murkowski’s vote to convict him in his second impeachment trial.

Tschibaka was also projected to advance early Wednesday morning.

(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Alaska
KEYWORDS: alaska; associatedpress; juliamanchester; kellytschibaka; lisamurkowski; murkowski; thehill; theshill
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To: campaignPete R-CT

I never said he was a RINO or a moderate, not even close to saying that.

Begich was a good candidate and would have made a fine representative, which is all the more reason why his voters (a large number of whom probably already hated Palin to begin with) REALLY resent her fairly late entry into the race.

And and such, the Begich voters may have spitefully left Palin off their ballot or even voted for the Rat as their #2 choice.

In something effectively like a 1-on-1 race (with 2 irrelevant candidates rounding out the ballot), Begich would have easily stomped the liberal Democrat and even Rigged Choice Voting would not have saved her.

But now we have the potential for a real mess, and the same applies to the rematch for a full term in November.


81 posted on 08/17/2022 9:24:04 AM PDT by PermaRag (We have SO many targets, and -- for now -- the means to see they get what they deserve.)
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To: Lazamataz

Freepers don’t understand how this works in Alaska

The top four vote getters advance to general election 11-8

Then the weird counting starts again

If nobody then gets 50% plus one vote but you have to rank all four

They then throw out last place and count again using voters second choice as their “vote”

If still nobody wins majority in then a three way count

They count last time between final two

Where winner is clearly defined via ranking down to only two

It stinks to me and clearly favors moderates and is open to party shifts which is why murkowski pushed for it to become law

Alaska GOPe out outnumber Dems 2.5 to one

60% is unaffiliated but break GOPe

Hence 11-8 will likely be Murkowski and Tshkaki(sic)

And Murkowski should lose handily given in potus elections dems haven’t won since 1964 so few dems to votes to offset

And polls have Tshibaki way ahead in the lead up

A number of dems ranked Murkowski first as asked and solicited because they know a dem can’t win and they prefer her

But in the general with just her and trumper she will lose

Not enough dems to offset 20 to 30 points behind in polling

And the Alaska GOPe censured her and promoted this alternative to beat her

Ranked choice is a problem it’s too complicated first off

Closed primaries and runoffs is the best way


82 posted on 08/17/2022 9:29:42 AM PDT by wardaddy (Lawyers guns and money……I lived it…. Now I'm old…. I have wonderful children)
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To: campaignPete R-CT
"It’s not clear whom the Sweeney voters will go for."

Sweeney is a Murkowski puppet, inserted into the House race to help the Democrat and to specifically hurt Palin who is likely to finish 2nd again (on the first ballot) just like yesterday. With no chance of finishing in the top 2 (or even top 3), Sweeney is running as a strategic ploy so that her voters will list the Democrat as their #2 choice.

In Rigged Choice Voting the #2 selections of the 3rd and 4th place finishers are of critical importance.

Sweeney to run in general election after special election bid rejected by courts

83 posted on 08/17/2022 9:31:16 AM PDT by PermaRag (We have SO many targets, and -- for now -- the means to see they get what they deserve.)
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To: wardaddy
"Freepers don’t understand how this works in Alaska

But in the general with just her [Murkowski] and trumper she will lose"

No.

The top FOUR -- not just the top TWO -- advance to November, where Murkowski will obviously reap all of the second-choice votes from the Democrat once Rigged Choice Voting kicks in after no candidate gets 50% on the first ballot.

And that will very likely be enough to put her over the top.

What Kelly needs to do in November is somehow get to 50% of first-choice votes so that RCV doesn't matter.

84 posted on 08/17/2022 9:36:36 AM PDT by PermaRag (We have SO many targets, and -- for now -- the means to see they get what they deserve.)
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To: Dr. Franklin

“Another way of looking at these results is that in an open primary 58% voted against the Hag based on early returns. I expect the rural vote, which is apparently not yet in, will go even more heavily against her. It now a matter of projecting how many Dems who supported the Dem candidate Chesbro will vote for the Hag in November. The other top four Republican, Kelley, should do the right thing and drop out.”

This! Spot on. Predictit, helpful even if it is too small to be an efficient market (e.g., even modestly deep pockets can surely move the dial), has shown her dropping recently, including a fall from 71% chance of winning to 67% in just the past several days.

At these odds I would surely bet against Murkowski. (She’ll likely see substantial attrition in these oddes in the next week or two.) At even odds I would bet against her but not bet my house.


85 posted on 08/17/2022 9:44:52 AM PDT by drellberg
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To: cpdiii

‘ This is basically the incumbent protection act.’
Yes.


86 posted on 08/17/2022 9:51:52 AM PDT by Track9 (You are far too inquisitive not to be seduced…)
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To: woweeitsme

She is a Democrat


87 posted on 08/17/2022 10:01:42 AM PDT by Fledermaus (With Trans Republicans like McCarthy and McConnell do we really want them to win Congress in 2022?)
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To: Col Frank Slade

A really good question. What is wrong with Alaska?


88 posted on 08/17/2022 10:06:23 AM PDT by Sequoyah101 (Politicians are only marginally good at one thing, being politicians. Otherwise they are fools.)
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To: PermaRag

You may be right!

( ... but you’re not)


89 posted on 08/17/2022 11:31:55 AM PDT by campaignPete R-CT (I owe, I owe, it's off to work I go ...)
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To: Iron Munro

And stealer of piknik baskets.😏


90 posted on 08/17/2022 11:46:06 AM PDT by BiteYourSelf ( Earth first we'll strip mine the other planets later.)
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To: PermaRag

Tall order for Murkowski to top 50% out of four

You’re banking on that


91 posted on 08/17/2022 11:52:03 AM PDT by wardaddy (Lawyers guns and money……I lived it…. Now I'm old…. I have wonderful children)
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To: wardaddy

Apparently you need to re-read my post. It’s Tshibaka, not Murkowski, who I say needs to get to 50%.

Otherwise you are absolutely right — it IS a tall order.

*IF* the percentages from the primary hold up (and we better all pray that they don’t):

Even if Tshibaka (at 40% on the first ballot) picks up ALL of Kelley’s second-choice votes that puts her at 42 or 43% — nowhere near the required 50%.

Then when the Democrat is eliminated, Tshibaka will have to pick up the MAJORITY of votes which went to the liberal Democrat (yeah, that sounds real plausible) rather than Murkowski.

Therefore, what Kelly needs to do in the next 2 1/2 months is to find a way to get significantly more than just 40% of first-choice votes. Getting to 50% (pipe dream) would be fantastic, but she better get to at least 45% to have a real chance in the Rigged Choice Voting portion of the contest.


92 posted on 08/17/2022 12:15:31 PM PDT by PermaRag (We have SO many targets, and -- for now -- the means to see they get what they deserve.)
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To: woweeitsme
So that means this seat will turn over to a Democrat? As much as I dislike Murkowski, I don’t want that to happen.

When someone deliberately stabs you in the back, you are better off getting rid of them regardless of the other consequences.

93 posted on 08/17/2022 12:23:09 PM PDT by DiogenesLamp ("of parents owing allegiance to no other sovereignty.")
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To: Dr. Franklin

Don’t count on that!
A lot of the rural vote will include Alaskan “gimmiedats”.


94 posted on 08/17/2022 12:26:39 PM PDT by Reily
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To: campaignPete R-CT; AuH2ORepublican; fieldmarshaldj; Galactic Overlord-In-Chief; TexasGurl24; LS

Looks like it will be Palin, she’s maintained a lead of a few points over Begich.

The democrat in the special election (70% reporting)

38%

The democrat in the primary for November

35.2%

Sweeney (”R”) 3.7%

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

As for the Senate, Murkowski and the rat combine for 50%....

I HATE this electoral system. God knows what it will do for the state legislature.


95 posted on 08/17/2022 5:01:55 PM PDT by Impy ("We didn't steal the election, we swear!!!" - Sincerely, The Election Thieves )
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To: campaignPete R-CT

But it just may be a luuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuunatic you’re looking for.

Some people just love to doom.

Yeah, I probably would have voted Begich #1. I’d vote for the Taliban or a Chicom over a democrat, at least they’re honest.


96 posted on 08/17/2022 5:06:55 PM PDT by Impy ("We didn't steal the election, we swear!!!" - Sincerely, The Election Thieves )
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To: campaignPete R-CT

1)I swear this shit system was invented just to save her.

2) I heard they will not even finish counting till the end of the month so probably a little later than that.

3)One would hope democrat idiots have trouble with it as well.


97 posted on 08/17/2022 5:08:58 PM PDT by Impy ("We didn't steal the election, we swear!!!" - Sincerely, The Election Thieves )
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To: Impy

“I swear this shit system was invented just to save her.”

I heard someone on Real America’s Voice say that it was Murkowski or her attorney that put this system/scheme on the ballot. It was, as you say, “invented just to save her”.


98 posted on 08/17/2022 5:14:02 PM PDT by MayflowerMadam (Sometimes when you get to where you're supposed to be, it's too soon.)
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To: Impy

Are we sure how that will pan out? There is a lot of Democrat area still out and if Pelota gets to 40% she may be able to win.


99 posted on 08/17/2022 5:43:51 PM PDT by TexasGurl24
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To: TexasGurl24

I can’t imagine that, Begich voters are loyal Republicans.

Predictit had Palin at 81 cents

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7806/Who-will-win-the-2022-Alaska-at-large-special-election


100 posted on 08/17/2022 5:51:25 PM PDT by Impy ("We didn't steal the election, we swear!!!" - Sincerely, The Election Thieves )
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