Are we sure how that will pan out? There is a lot of Democrat area still out and if Pelota gets to 40% she may be able to win.
I can’t imagine that, Begich voters are loyal Republicans.
Predictit had Palin at 81 cents
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7806/Who-will-win-the-2022-Alaska-at-large-special-election