Tall order for Murkowski to top 50% out of four
You’re banking on that
Apparently you need to re-read my post. It’s Tshibaka, not Murkowski, who I say needs to get to 50%.
Otherwise you are absolutely right — it IS a tall order.
*IF* the percentages from the primary hold up (and we better all pray that they don’t):
Even if Tshibaka (at 40% on the first ballot) picks up ALL of Kelley’s second-choice votes that puts her at 42 or 43% — nowhere near the required 50%.
Then when the Democrat is eliminated, Tshibaka will have to pick up the MAJORITY of votes which went to the liberal Democrat (yeah, that sounds real plausible) rather than Murkowski.
Therefore, what Kelly needs to do in the next 2 1/2 months is to find a way to get significantly more than just 40% of first-choice votes. Getting to 50% (pipe dream) would be fantastic, but she better get to at least 45% to have a real chance in the Rigged Choice Voting portion of the contest.