Posted on 06/29/2022 4:05:48 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
On Fox News last Friday and this past Monday, I've been offering the analysis that it's too soon to say with certainty how the Dobbs decision from the Supreme Court – and the resulting overturning of Roe v. Wade – will impact the upcoming elections. I've noted that we saw a spike in interest and acrimony in early May after the draft opinion leaked, then intense interest in the issue subsided as other events unfolded and economic fundamentals reasserted themselves in the minds of the public. I suggested that we very well might see a similar trajectory play out now that the ruling has been issued.
A few new polls show Democrats getting a generic ballot bump, with one showing Democratic enthusiasm shooting up to nearly match Republican intensity. Will that data be reflected elsewhere, and are they lasting phenomena?
Perhaps, or perhaps not, but The New York Times is sounding the alarm that voter behavior that might be expected after an election-shaking earthquake "does not appear to be materializing":
The Supreme Court decision ending the constitutional right to abortion was expected to motivate voters. Turnout in several states hosting primaries on Tuesday, however, appeared to be typically sluggish — at least so far. All of those states have various forms of early voting, meaning that many ballots may have been cast before the court struck down the landmark Roe v. Wade case on Friday. In Illinois, election officials said that they expected average turnout — which is about 27 percent for the midterm primaries.
A hotly contested Republican primary for governor and several intraparty matchups for the House could help lift the totals...As of the start of the week, unaffiliated voters had returned more early ballots in Republican primaries than Democratic ones, a reversal from 2020 and 2018, election officials said.
This information, coupled with the recent AP report about more than one million voters switching from Democratic to Republican registrations this cycle nationwide, still points in the direction of a red wave (size and scope TBD).
Pollwatcher :
In all likelihood, Biden lost the last of the swing voters last fall. Since then, the subsequent drops have probably been among Democrats.
Biden remains in a deep hole, gas prices and inflation are still raging, and Americans are profoundly unsettled about their economic situation. Many expect a recession is coming. Those are the driving forces in this election. On the issue of abortion, a fresh Monmouth poll presents some interesting results.
Unsurprisingly, most Americans oppose reversing Roe v. Wade, but support for legal abortion drops substantially after the first trimester. The poll asks the question quite strangely, but even within the weird framing, more voters say the rights of an "unborn fetus" outweigh the mother's rights starting in the middle trimester. This result is also part of the contradictory mess that so often characterizes abortion polling:
Now that Roe has been overturned, just under half (46%) of the public would like Congress to pass a law allowing abortion nationwide, while 44% prefer to leave abortion law up to the states. Just 7% want a national ban. Most Democrats (80%) want a national law allowing abortion and most Republicans (69%) want to leave abortion law to the states. These results are basically unchanged from May. Nearly 6 in 10 Americans (57%) say they would be bothered a lot if abortion was banned nationwide and just under half (46%) would be bothered a lot if certain states banned abortion.
Six-in-ten Americans are against overturning Roe, yet a majority – 52 percent – now say abortion laws should now be left up to states, or that the practice should be banned nationally (both of which are anti-Roe positions). Fifty-seven percent would be "bothered a lot" if a nationwide abortion ban were imposed (that is unlikely to pass, even if Republicans controlled all of Washington, though a much more popular and internationally-mainstream second trimester ban could be conceivable), but less than half say the same about state-level bans.
Two other notes of interest from the Monmouth numbers: A majority of Americans say they're at least somewhat concerned that the Court will also go after other rights, like same-sex marriage. I think that's unlikely, for reasons explained here.
Once (if) people start to realize SSM and birth control aren't going anywhere, will some of the current upset recede? And compare this result to how invested people are on economic hardship issues right now:
The poll also asked about the direct impact of Roe being overturned. Only 3 in 10 Americans say individual states being able to ban or restrict abortion would personally impact them or their family – 13% say it would impact them a great deal and 17% say some.
On the other hand, half (50%) feel they will not be impacted at all and another 18% do not expect much impact.
On the aforementioned global norms piece, some people have recently been discovering facts that many pro-lifers have been mentioning for years, but what few in the activist press ever highlight or even acknowledge - Europe has more restrictive abortion laws than most of the U.S. did up until this week.
As a pro-lifer, I'm not going to pretend that the Dobbs decision and subsequent ripple effects will mostly redound to the benefit of Republicans, or to the underlying cause. There will be overreach, backlash, and setbacks. But one thing that the GOP and the pro-life movement have going for them is the abject radicalism of the pro-abortion Democrats, who go far beyond "pro-choice" in their policies and rhetoric. Their own "pro-choice" caucus is now disavowing the word "choice," for goodness sake. They are demanding abortion through the moment of birth, for any reason, on-demand, funded by tax dollars, with no conscience exceptions for healthcare workers.
Short of CCP-style compulsory abortions, it's hard to imagine a platform that's more ghoulish and radical. That's where Democrats have decided to land (that's not an exaggeration, as literally all but two Democrats in all of Congress voted in support of such legislation), and it's a very assailable position. This sort of thing will also not sit well with a great number of Americans who may even consider themselves moderately pro-choice.
And don't forget that in her zeal for abortion, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has refused to even tepidly condemn or discourage any of this . Disgusting:
Multiple pro-life pregnancy centers were attacked over the weekend following the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade Friday. The FBI and local police are investigating a Saturday morning attack on a Colorado pregnancy care center as possible arson, police say. A fire broke out at Life Choices in Longmont at the Denver area center around 3:17 a.m. Saturday morning.The front door was broken and the property was vandalized with several pro-abortion messages spray painted in black paint. “If abortions aren’t safe neither are you,” one read. “Bans off our bodies,” another read. A day before the attack, the far-left organization Colorado Liberation and Autonomy (COLA) posted a link to a map of pro-life pregnancy care centers created by two University of Georgia professors. The map refers to the centers as “fake women’s health centers.” COLA posted the link with a graphic that said, “Your local pregnancy care center tonight” and “mask up, stay dangerous.”
A The front door was broken and the property was vandalized with several pro-abortion messages spray painted in black paint. “If abortions aren’t safe neither are you,” one read. “Bans off our bodies,” another read. A day before the attack, the far-left organization Colorado Liberation and Autonomy (COLA) posted a link to a map of pro-life pregnancy care centers created by two University of Georgia professors. The map refers to the centers as “fake women’s health centers.” COLA posted the link with a graphic that said, “Your local pregnancy care center tonight” and “mask up, stay dangerous.”
A Virginia pregnancy center was vandalized Friday night, according to police. Multiple windows were shattered and pro-abortion slogans spray painted on the property. “Jane’s Revenge,” the name of a radical abortion group that has threatened violence against pro-life centers, was spray painted outside the doors of the center.
This will repulse many people. Americans dislike extremism, which is why court-packing remains broadly opposed, even in surveys that show majority disapproval of the Dobbs decision, and sinking approval of SCOTUS in general. I'll leave you with this:
Dobbs 40/49 approval in this poll.
Biden 39/57 approval rating, per RCP average.
This despite a widespread misinformation campaign about the meaning of Roe reversal & an all-hands-on-deck abortion activism push from 'news' media.
Republicans actually grow a point higher in the YouGov generic ballot since Roe overturned 🤷♂️
Generic Ballot (National)
Rep 45% Dem 40%
6/25-6/28 by YouGov (B+) 776 LV
Fascist DemocRATS suck.
Sluggish with goat meat...
We know Democrats can cheat. We know the GOP won't stop them. In the Fall elections, the Democrats may "miraculously" retain control of the House and Senate. And the media will shrug and say "We told you that those Democrat voters were super energized ..."
It's all a joke.
What are they supposed to vote for? Roe v Wade was overturned. It is over. No more US sponsored abortion. They’re going to fight that? How?
Btw I wonder if massive cheating on a presidential scale that everyone knows about suppresses voter turnout among Dems
It’s like when just after my friend’s grandmother had a stroke ending up in the hospital she was hallucinating. She saw, among other things, my friend’s sisters, her other granddaughters in the room claiming they were helping her. When my friend asked her sisters if they were going to go visit the grandmother in the hospital they said, no. Why do we need to. She thinks we’re there.
The abortion ruling is already baked in, most everyone thought the early release was how the final decision would go.
Our only hope is the roughly 55-60% or so in polls who want unrestricted abortions will not turn out to vote. What may help are states now guaranteeing baby murder as a women’s health right-——while good states outlaw it.
This means some boiling anger will cool down and get to be room temperature by November. Not wildly energized by women with purple hair and LGBTQ flags starting fires at counseling offices.
Virulent feminazis of any genders to simple Roe supporters have always been motivated to vote, so there is no bump. There are no new supporters. Just a fatigued middle America that wishes that the hysterical would just STFU already.
Normal sane people recognize that late term abortions , of babies that are older than preemies that make the newspaper, just can’t be acceptable.
The hedge is that no one wants to talk about “when life begins?” But just like obscenity, they can recognize baby murder when they see it.
And prochoice pro abortion protesters shouting “blood on your hands” could not have it more backward.
No boost in voters. None.
Michigan ads for Whitmer and others say "upholding women's right to choose"----not choose what. As the highly esteemed President Biden (/S) told them: they have to elect all Dems in all the states to get the abortion rights back.
True, if state after state is like CA,NY and other leftist havens, the worst would happen.
God forbid.
My wife has received an appeal for cash from Nancy every single day for over a week; started before the ruling was announced.
Don't ask me why; Mrs. Jeffersondem is more anti-Nancy than me if that is possible.
I'm guessing Land's End catalog must have loaned their list to Nancy. We used to by stuff from them years ago before they showed out.
Killing unborn babies and endangering my ho lifestyle is so much more important than $6 gasoline and 11% inflation!
Precisely! The Dems are preparing for the general by “fortifying “ the election like in 2020. They were not ‘prepared’ in 2016 and Boy were they shocked It won’t happen again.
Probably better to track how much ballot-quality printer paper is being sold.
All of the polling I’ve seen since Roe was decided is that it is much more of a GOTV motivator for pro-life people than pro-abortion people.
Women of child bearing age do not have the fire in the belly for this fight.
The kids are mad, as ordered - but they don’t know how to vote unless it’s an Instagram poll. :)
That's not surprising in context at all. It's the position of the Constitution. It's not a Federal matter--which is why a big chunk of the country was outraged by Roe to begin with.
In the decision itself, a majority of the Justices themselves opposed a national ban.
That anger was so palpable....not....
Just contrived and short lived...
Any Republican woman who switched to the Democrats over this issue, wasn’t worth the time and effort anyway.
I say good riddance.
We’ll lose some 18-35 year old females, but the Karl Rove strategy of pandering to that demographic, just “went out the window.”
This actually helps Trump in the 2024 Republican Primary.
His opponents would want that demographic to defeat Trump, but now they’re registering as Democrats.
Anti Trump Republicans are “suckers & losers.”(The future will also show they’re also stupid brick heads)
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