Looks like those missiles are packing a little extra punch anyways.
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Posted on 06/20/2022 8:46:26 PM PDT by Kazan
Two events in the last few days–Lithuania’s decision to prevent the transit of Russian supplies for Kalinigrad and the Ukrainian missile attack on a Russian oil platform in the Black Sea–may be the tipping point for Russia in shifting to a War strategy rather than continue with the Special Military Operation. Let me explain.
The Special Military Operation, besides the stated goals of demilitarizing and denazifying Ukraine, consisted of restricted rules of engagement. Russia did not destroy all communication infrastructure and networks. The internet remained operational in most parts of Ukraine. Cell phone towers and power grids were not targeted and destroyed. The lights stayed on in the cities and towns, including Lviv and Kiev. Civilian fuel depots and oil refinery plants were left largely unmolested.
Ukrainian government buildings, including the Ministry of Defense, have not been reduced to rubble. They still stand and daily business continues. The civilian transportation grid is still operating. Some rail travel has been disrupted in order to stop the movement of NATO military supplies to the eastern part of Ukraine, but trains continue to roll, albeit diesel fueled beasts.
Notwithstanding western propaganda that Russian “orcs” are raping, pillaging and wantonly killing civilians, the truth is otherwise. Russia has not targeted purely civilian areas (unlike Ukraine, which is shelling the city of Donetsk where there is no Russian military activity) and has pressed Ukraine to open safe escape routes for civilians caught in a combat zone. Ukraine has blocked many of these relief efforts.
The defining feature of the Special Military Operation is the size of the Russian military force deployed to Ukraine–only an estimated 250,000 Russian troops going up against a Ukrainian army and territorial defense force of 600,000. Conventional wisdom among military strategists is that an attacking army should have a 3 to 1 advantage if it hopes to succeed:
The 3-1 rule of land combat is a military aphorism rooted in operations research that states that an attacking force should have a 3 to 1 advantage over a defending force in order to succeed. The reason the attacking force must be so large of course, is to account for losses that can occur when assaulting a fortified position. A smaller attacking force often assumes much greater risk by not having enough soldiers to create and exploit a breach; likewise, choice of terrain, cover, level of preparedness, area denial, distance to resupply, distance to reinforcements, and home field advantage (morale) is usually on the side of the defender.
Russia turned the conventional wisdom on its head. Despite being outnumber almost three to one by Ukraine, which was fighting a defensive battle from fortified positions, Russia quickly obtained air supremacy and crippled Ukraine’s ability to provide close air support to besieged units. Ukrainian fixed wing and rotary wing aircraft have not played a significant offensive role in the Ukrainian operations.
Russia also relied on the militias in the Luhansk and Donetsk Republics and let them carry the brunt of the battle in recapturing territory held by the Ukrainian army. It appears that Russia played the role of supporting commander while the military forces of Luhansk and Donetsk were the supported commanders. In other words, Russia provided artillery, armor, air support and missiles to back up the military operations of the Donbas republics. Russia also provided troop reinforcement as needed. Despite western claims that Russia has suffered catastrophic losses, there is no evidence on social media in Russia to back up that claim. Vladimir Putin does not have the power to prevent bereaved parents and spouses from mourning sons lost on the battlefield.
The carnage the Ukrainian forces are experiencing on the ground will pale in comparison if Russia decides to take the gloves off and conduct a full scale war on Ukraine as the supported commander. You will no longer see photo ops with western politicians and celebrities strolling the streets of Kiev. Russia has a variety of options–it can destroy Ukraine’s electrical network or shutdown the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant–the largest plant in Europe. Russia also could kill Ukraine’s access to oil and take out refineries. And Russia can begin targeting Ukraine’s government infrastructure.
I hope it does not come to this, but Vladimir Putin has made it clear that this is an existential fight for Russia and the west, by its words and actions, have reinforced that belief. One German journalist has awakened to the danger:
German TV is admitting what’s become increasingly obvious: the West is in denial that Russia has all but won its military conflict with Ukraine.
“I am afraid we are now faced with a situation where we now have to face an uncomfortable truth,” said journalist Wolfram Weimer last week. “And that is that Russia has won this war.”
https://twitter.com/VanessaBeeley/status/1538140883425583104/video/1
“Now, our chancellor is working with this language template: ‘Russia must not win this war. Ukraine must win,’” Weimer continued.
“I’m just wondering where this is headed politically, because in fact Russia has practically conquered the Donbas in just a matter of a few days. The area gains are huge, they are about as big as Holland and Belgium put together. The land connection to Crimea is there. That means, how is Russia supposed to lose this war now?”
Weimer went on to say that Ukraine “does not have the strength” to militarily fight Russia despite receiving billions of dollars of weapons and assistance from the West, and that Russia is “also winning the international game of sanctions.”
We are living in historic times. The world that was created in the aftermath of World War II was extinguished on February 24, 2022. The United States is no longer in a position to dictate the outcome in Ukraine and Europe. That power now resides with Vladimir Putin.
Zelensky and Putin are two peas in a pod.
A pair of madmen who keep looking for a way to win a war which they should be looking for a way to end.
Article brings up a good point, which is that Putin might be getting tired of this crap and simply finish the job, and quickly.
Russia has systematically destroyed the civilian infrastructure in Eastern Ukraine, including electricity, communications, water, gasoline, even hospitals. Every time Ukrainians have announced the creation of new hospitals, missiles have hit them shortly thereafter. Most Eastern cities no longer have basic infrastructure.
In the West, Russia has lobbed missiles at civilian targets and infrastructure, claiming "tanks were there", even when reporters were on the scene to document damage with absolutely no tanks or other military targets destroyed.
Ukrainians in the East can still communicate--or at least some of them--thanks to satellite internet and phone systems.
Russian did indeed attempt to launch large scale cyberattacks, which apparently had help from the Chinese, but they failed because Russian claims of having the capability to turn off the lights, anywhere at anytime, was simply a bunch of BS.
That is also the reason why we have not faced any largescale blackouts or refinery disruptions in the West, because they simply lacked the capability to do it. Apparently they blew their chance with that pipeline ransomware attack some months before the actual war.
Sure, because at nearly 40,000 dead Russians (on the low end!), and an inability to take Luhansk despite 115 days of non-stop warfare, Russia might finally get SUPER serious.
“Sure, because at nearly 40,000 dead Russians (on the low end!), and an inability to take Luhansk despite 115 days of non-stop warfare, Russia might finally get SUPER serious.”
And what CRACKS ME UP is that you do know the truth there...
Anyway, have a good evening!
Interesting comments. Thanks.
The world is being run by clowns who are playing games with the future of humanity.
Sure, the only way to know objective reality is to read Russian Ministry of Defense and Iranian news sources for how things are going in Ukraine.
Don't believe your lying eyes about how Russians are doing in Ukraine! No sir. Those cities taken "weeks ago" per Russian news, they are the victim of western CGI technology making it look like Russians are still dying there today. In fact, Russia conquered Ukraine in 3 days and are already taking over Poland, but western media is hiding it from the masses!
Anyway, have a good evening!
You've got to hit and run since you have a lot of homework to do to prepare to transform yourself into a Chinese Communist shill in preparation for a possible invasion of Taiwan! Good luck on that.
Dirty RuZZian.
Zelensky does not sound like a leader with victory within his reach. His pleas sound like a drowning man desperate for someone to throw him a life ring.
Russia lost a million people defending Stalingrad against the Nazi’s and lost 100,000 men taking Berlin but THEY DID TAKE BERLIN.
The truth will be known soon enough but Zelensky does not appear to be planning a victory parade.
> Zelensky and Putin are two peas in a pod. <
Some truth there. Zelensky is no good. And Putin is no good. But it was Putin who ordered tanks to cross an international border. So he gets the lion’s share of the blame in my book.
As you noted, everyone involved should be looking for a way to end this war. My suggestion is this. Give far east Ukraine to Russia. It’s gone anyway. But wait. There is no free lunch. Make Russia pay for those provinces. Transfer a large amount of Russian gold to Kiev.
Then everyone involved can declare a win.
Looks like those missiles are packing a little extra punch anyways.
.
fake
NV
6/16/22
Ukraine suffering up to 1,000 casualties per day in Donbas, MP says
Johnson is right, this is a historic moment and our geopolitical earth is shifting. The one super power hegemony days are ending and multi-polarity is being speeded up by this military conflict.
I don’t expect Putin to put the pedal to the medal though. It would be out of character for him and doesn’t appear to be necessary.
Understandably Zelensky is in a panic. Unlike many of his poorly informed supporters on Free Republic, he realizes the gig is almost up. He has run out of weapons, ammunition, fuel, and manpower and every day is just another relentless “turkey shoot” for the poor Ukrainian troops. Nothing on the horizon can change that.
His NATO backers are “ruing the day” they met him...:-) Their economies, remaining armory (and their confidence in being able to stay in power) are plummeting and they are desperately looking for an exit which up to now Zelensky has been unwilling to provide.
The real interesting question here, though, is who says Russia is going to provide one right now even if Zelesky does cave.
Once Zelensky reneged on the preliminary Istanbul agreement and then committed the Bucca false flag Russia changed their initial plans which were to de-militarize; de-nazi; demand autonomy for Donbass and neutrality for Ukraine and then depart.
Russia decided they could never trust Zelensky to uphold any agreement he signed and so they went to Plan B...to stay in Ukraine and incorporate the Russia speaking areas into Russia.
So how far do they want to go? And what arrangements would have to be made as to who controls the rump state that is left?
We live in interesting times.
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