These bear particular emphasis:
(And just in case for those who are curious: RUSI is a UK think tank founded in 1831 by the Duke of Wellington.)
Posted on 06/19/2022 10:59:48 PM PDT by Ultra Sonic 007
The war in Ukraine has proven that the age of industrial warfare is still here. The massive consumption of equipment, vehicles and ammunition requires a large-scale industrial base for resupply – quantity still has a quality of its own. The mass scale combat has pitted 250,000 Ukrainian soldiers, together with 450,000 recently mobilised citizen soldiers against about 200,000 Russian and separatist troops. The effort to arm, feed and supply these armies is a monumental task. Ammunition resupply is particularly onerous. For Ukraine, compounding this task are Russian deep fires capabilities, which target Ukrainian military industry and transportation networks throughout the depth of the country. The Russian army has also suffered from Ukrainian cross-border attacks and acts of sabotage, but at a smaller scale. The rate of ammunition and equipment consumption in Ukraine can only be sustained by a large-scale industrial base.
This reality should be a concrete warning to Western countries, who have scaled down military industrial capacity and sacrificed scale and effectiveness for efficiency. This strategy relies on flawed assumptions about the future of war, and has been influenced by both the bureaucratic culture in Western governments and the legacy of low-intensity conflicts. Currently, the West may not have the industrial capacity to fight a large-scale war. If the US government is planning to once again become the arsenal of democracy, then the existing capabilities of the US military-industrial base and the core assumptions that have driven its development need to be re-examined.
There is no exact ammunition consumption data available for the Russia–Ukraine conflict. Neither government publishes data, but an estimate of Russian ammunition consumption can be calculated using the official fire missions data provided by the Russian Ministry of Defense during its daily briefing.
Although these numbers mix tactical rockets with conventional, hard-shell artillery, it is not unreasonable to assume that a third of these missions were fired by rocket troops because they form a third of a motorised rifle brigade’s artillery force, with two other battalions being tube artillery. This suggests 390 daily missions fired by tube artillery. Each tube artillery strike is conducted by a battery of six guns total. However, combat and maintenance breakdowns are likely to reduce this number to four. With four guns per battery and four rounds per gun, the tube artillery fires about 6,240 rounds per day. We can estimate an additional 15% wastage for rounds that were set on the ground but abandoned when the battery moved in a hurry, rounds destroyed by Ukrainian strikes on ammunition dumps, or rounds fired but not reported to higher command levels. This number comes up to 7,176 artillery rounds a day. It should be noted that the Russian Ministry of Defense only reports fire missions by forces of the Russian Federation. These do not include formations from the Donetsk and Luhansk separatist republics, which are treated as different countries. The numbers are not perfect, but even if they are off by 50%, it still does not change the overall logistics challenge.
The winner in a prolonged war between two near-peer powers is still based on which side has the strongest industrial base. A country must either have the manufacturing capacity to build massive quantities of ammunition or have other manufacturing industries that can be rapidly converted to ammunition production. Unfortunately, the West no longer seems to have either.
Presently, the US is decreasing its artillery ammunition stockpiles. In 2020, artillery ammunition purchases decreased by 36% to $425 million. In 2022, the plan is to reduce expenditure on 155mm artillery rounds to $174 million. This is equivalent to 75,357 M795 basic ‘dumb’ rounds for regular artillery, 1,400 XM1113 rounds for the M777, and 1,046 XM1113 rounds for Extended Round Artillery Cannons. Finally, there are $75 million dedicated for Excalibur precision-guided munitions that costs $176K per round, thus totaling 426 rounds. In short, US annual artillery production would at best only last for 10 days to two weeks of combat in Ukraine. If the initial estimate of Russian shells fired is over by 50%, it would only extend the artillery supplied for three weeks.
The US is not the only country facing this challenge. In a recent war game involving US, UK and French forces, UK forces exhausted national stockpiles of critical ammunition after eight days.
Unfortunately, this is not only the case with artillery. Anti-tank Javelins and air-defence Stingers are in the same boat. The US shipped 7,000 Javelin missiles to Ukraine – roughly one-third of its stockpile – with more shipments to come. Lockheed Martin produces about 2,100 missiles a year, though this number might ramp up to 4,000 in a few years. Ukraine claims to use 500 Javelin missiles every day.
The expenditure of cruise missiles and theatre ballistic missiles is just as massive. The Russians have fired between 1,100 and 2,100 missiles. The US currently purchases 110 PRISM, 500 JASSM and 60 Tomahawk cruise missiles annually, meaning that in three months of combat, Russia has burned through four times the US annual missile production. The Russian rate of production can only be estimated. Russia started missile production in 2015 in limited initial runs, and even in 2016 the production runs were estimated at 47 missiles. This means that it had only five to six years of full-scale production.
If competition between autocracies and democracies has really entered a military phase, then the arsenal of democracy must radically improve its approach to the production of materiel in wartime
The initial stockpile in February 2022 is unknown, but considering expenditures and the requirement to hold substantial stockpiles back in case of war with NATO, it is unlikely that the Russians are worried. In fact, they seem to have enough to expend operational-level cruise missiles on tactical targets. The assumption that there are 4,000 cruise and ballistic missiles in the Russian inventory is not unreasonable. This production will probably increase despite Western sanctions. In April, ODK Saturn, which makes Kalibr missile motors, announced an additional 500 job openings. This suggests that even in this field, the West only has parity with Russia.
The first key assumption about future of combat is that precision-guided weapons will reduce overall ammunition consumption by requiring only one round to destroy the target. The war in Ukraine is challenging this assumption. Many ‘dumb’ indirect fire systems are achieving a great deal of precision without precision guidance, and still the overall ammunition consumption is massive. Part of the issue is that the digitisation of global maps, combined with a massive proliferation of drones, allows geolocation and targeting with increased precision, with video evidence demonstrating the ability to score first strike hits by indirect fires.
The second crucial assumption is that industry can be turned on and off at will. This mode of thinking was imported from the business sector and has spread through US government culture. In the civilian sector, customers can increase or decrease their orders. The producer may be hurt by a drop in orders but rarely is that drop catastrophic because usually there are multiple consumers and losses can be spread among consumers. Unfortunately, this does not work for military purchases. There is only one customer in the US for artillery shells – the military. Once the orders drop off, the manufacturer must close production lines to cut costs to stay in business. Small businesses may close entirely. Generating new capacity is very challenging, especially as there is so little manufacturing capacity left to draw skilled workers from. This is especially challenging because many older armament production systems are labour intensive to the point where they are practically built by hand, and it takes a long time to train a new workforce. The supply chain issues are also problematic because subcomponents may be produced by a subcontractor who either goes out of business, with loss of orders or retools for other customers or who relies on parts from overseas, possibly from a hostile country.
China’s near monopoly on rare earth materials is an obvious challenge here. Stinger missile production will not be completed until 2026, in part due to component shortages. US reports on the defence industrial base have made it clear that ramping up production in war-time may be challenging, if not impossible, due to supply chain issues and a lack of trained personnel due to the degradation of the US manufacturing base.
Finally, there is an assumption about overall ammunition consumption rates. The US government has always lowballed this number. From the Vietnam era to today, small arms plants have shrunk from five to just one. This was glaring at the height of the Iraq war, when US started to run low on small arms ammunition, causing the US government to buy British and Israeli ammunition during the initial stage of the war. At one point, the US had to dip into Vietnam and even Second World War-era ammo stockpiles of .50 calibre ammunition to feed the war effort. This was largely the result of incorrect assumptions about how effective US troops would be. Indeed, the Government Accountability Office estimated that it took 250,000 rounds to kill one insurgent. Luckily for the US, its gun culture ensured that small arms ammunition industry has a civilian component in the US. This is not the case with other types of ammunition, as shown earlier with Javelin and Stinger missiles. Without access to government methodology, it is impossible to understand why US government estimates were off, but there is a risk that the same errors were made with other types of munitions.
The war in Ukraine demonstrates that war between peer or near-peer adversaries demands the existence of a technically advanced, mass scale, industrial-age production capability. The Russian onslaught consumes ammunition at rates that massively exceed US forecasts and ammunition production. For the US to act as the arsenal of democracy in defence of Ukraine, there must be a major look at the manner and the scale at which the US organises its industrial base. This situation is especially critical because behind the Russian invasion stands the world’s manufacturing capital – China. As the US begins to expend more and more of its stockpiles to keep Ukraine in the war, China has yet to provide any meaningful military assistance to Russia. The West must assume that China will not allow Russia to be defeated, especially due to a lack of ammunition. If competition between autocracies and democracies has really entered a military phase, then the arsenal of democracy must first radically improve its approach to the production of materiel in wartime.
The views expressed in this Commentary are the author’s, and do not represent those of RUSI or any other institution.
These bear particular emphasis:
(And just in case for those who are curious: RUSI is a UK think tank founded in 1831 by the Duke of Wellington.)
All mental masturbation. The “west” can destroy Russia with a few executive orders from the chomo in chief destroying the “Green” BS. Announce unrestrained petroleum and natgas harvesting on “western” soil and announce refinery approvals and Russia is ended overnight.
Would we be able to fight a conventional war against Russia and China? Not unless we win quickly. China has become the arsenal of dictatorship with the help of free traitors
But don't like that the author was so unwilling to estimate Russian stockpiles - even going so far as to imply that the high rate of consumption (of missiles) must necessarily mean that they have massive stockpiles.
But an otherwise well-written article! Sobering!
Regards,
The Pentagon went behind Trump's back when he ordered the withdrawal of troops from Syria, refusing to do so.
That's but one example of the sort of institutional rot that renders your comment an exercise in wishful thinking.
After all, the current governing class in Washington, despite the rise in energy prices, has only DOUBLED DOWN on their Green agenda. Executive orders to unleash our petroleum industry won't mean jack if the underlings refuse to implement them.
Read any of my posts and I have always said “Trump’s biggest mistake was trusting anything with the Bush clan stank.”
Regards.
After disposable income in Russia increasing 7 fold between 2000 and 2014... Russia got stung by Western Sanctions in 2014 which caused their economy to shrink in 2015. After that Putin and Co. worked on hardening their economy against similar actions in the future. They now have one of the most self sufficient economies in the world. So far every “sanction” imposed has hurt the West more than Russia.
You are correct that the best thing that could be done to hurt Russia would be to increase oil and gas production and refining capacity. But it is doubtful that even that would be any thing more than an inconvenience to them. They export, food, energy, and fertilizer. They have a larger land mass and more natural resources than every other country in the world. You fantasizing that we are currently capable of destroying Russia with a “few executive orders” is the one who is engaging in “mental masturbation”.
How much truth is there to the impression given by this article that the US will have a hard time cranking up production, and that Russia has unlimited supplies of missiles and ability to produce lots more quickly. I find it a bit hard to believe that Russia can be all that efficient, even when it comes to projectile production. The fact that the Russian state media has been sabre rattling about nukes, reclaiming Lithuania, and punishing Sweden and Finland suggests to me that they are eager to get it over in a hurry. Could they be a lot more lacking in missile and other depth than they would have use believe with their belicosity?
When David (Russia) is battling Goliath (the West), it is NOT enough for David to succeed (for a time) in "hurting" (in absolute numbers) Goliath more than David is being hurt (in absolute numbers).
Goliath can be acting rationally if he is willing to accept massive pain (in absolute numbers) if, in the long haul, it means that David will be depleted first.
When the Soviets were marching westwards to Berlin, they were - in abs. numbers - actually losing more than the Nazis. But the Nazis were smaller in size (military strength) than the Soviets, so the Nazis eventually crumbled.
The same principle applies today in the Russo-Ukrainian War.
That is why Ukraine will win, as long as they don't lose their nerve and surrender prematurely.
Like the "Star Wars" initiative of Ronald Reagan in the 1980s: All we have to do is outspend the Russians.
If Bill Gates and I engage in a contest to see who can burn money longer, and Gates agrees to burn one $100 bill for every $1 bill I burn - Bill Gates wins.
Regards,
How are those videos relevant to the main article?
Russia has unlimited supplies of missiles and ability to produce lots more quickly
—
Modern missiles require high end chips - the ones Russia produces are not up to the standards of a decade ago. The ones they need are embargoed. Mainland Chinese chips are joke.
Case in point: the artillery drone, Orlon-10, responsible for most of the artillery successes in Ukraine was recently down graded for lack of chips to make new ones:
The circuit board used for navigation was not dependent on GPS making it resistant to some anti-UAV guns. The Orlon-10 flew using optical ground information. However, Orcs cannot make new boards and so they replaced the old board with a primitive GPS based circuit board. Now it is susceptible to GPS attacks. Its better for Orc Artillery, but easier to shoot down
Obviously annual purchases of ammo by the military needs to be increased and stockpiles need to be increased significantly. Ditto production capacity.
NATO as a whole needs to conduct a strategic survey of what it would need in the case of a major land war, what it has on hand and what it has the capacity to manufacture currently.
Shortfalls need to be identified. Then they need to be remedied. NATO countries must whenever possible develop the capacity to meet their needs for all critical military resources first, FROM WITHIN THE ALLIANCE. For example, this means no Chinese components in weapons systems. If it becomes necessary to subsidize domestic production of key components for weapons, then so be it.
If key materials or components cannot be obtained from within the alliance then the next best option is to determine what outside sources these may be obtained from. The very first option needs to be from allied countries such as Australia, Japan, Israel, etc. NATO should only go to neutral 3rd parties if it absolutely must and if it is impossible to source those strategic resources from within the alliance or from allied countries. In which case whatever the resource is, NATO countries need to build up massive stockpiles of it. That includes for instance, oil.
Yes. The West would be in a vastly stronger position militarily and economically if it would stop sacrificing to Gaia.
Notice, nobody else in the world feels any need to slit their own throats by sacrificing to Gaia.
The underlings at the 3 letter agencies must be fired. EN MASSE.
That means THOUSANDS. By the way, 3 letter agencies includes the DOD. The second Trump administration needs to look at everybody in the military O5 and up and every one of them who is identified as a Leftist needs to be fired. Get reports from the troops. Comb through their social media posts. See if they’ve pushed any “Equity, Diversity and Inclusion” crap. Fire everybody who has - immediately. Abolish any such positions in the US military. No more trannies. Fire them immediately. No more “pride” crap. Fire anybody who pushed that too.
>>>The “west” can destroy Russia with a few executive orders<<
You are delusional.
Most of the 3-letter agencies simply need to be axed outright.
I guess people from Russia have no idea how the protections of the US Civil Service rules/laws work. They do not discriminate against Conservatives, Liberals, or Gays. It is interesting to see how a series of comments can degenerate from apparently reasonable to really bizzare and in the process reveal the true character of the writer.
When propagandists frame Russia and the ChiComs as enemies as part of their theater for us little people, remember that the West has every warning about problems - whether with the ChiCom puppet North Korea or the Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008.
We’re not prepared for war because our leadership (both parties) is in bed with their leaders - and the nationalist president who called that out was removed from office by fraud in the 2020 election.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.