Posted on 06/10/2022 7:32:22 PM PDT by elpadre
NEW YORK – US imports from China rose to an all-time record after seasonal adjustment in April, despite the Shanghai lockdown and other Covid-related blockages in the Chinese economy.
That isn’t what you read in Bloomberg News, whose 30 economists and 100 full-time economics reporters apparently haven’t learned the difference between seasonally adjusted and unadjusted data.
Unadjusted, the data show a typical bouncing-ball pattern over a 12-month cycle. It is meaningless to make month-to-month comparisons without taking into account the pronounced seasonality of trade patterns.
The chart above reflects seasonal adjustment performed on the Eviews econometrics platform using the TRAMO algorithm, the approach employed by most central banks.
Wrote Bloomberg June 7: “The US trade deficit shrunk in April by the most on record in dollar terms, reflecting a drop in the value of imports amid Covid lockdowns in China while exports climbed. Imports dropped in April as factory activity in China fell to the lowest level since February 2020 amid strict lockdowns to curb the spread of Covid-19. While manufacturing in the country has improved somewhat since, the measures are still straining already-tenuous global supply chains, especially when coupled with Russia’s war in Ukraine. The deficit with China decreased in April by $8.5 billion, the most in seven years. Imports dropped $10.1 billion, also the most since 2015.”
The important story is the diametric opposite of Bloomberg’s report: Despite the Covid lockdown, China’s economy continued to export more than ever to the United States. What we observe in the data is the resilience, not the fragility, of the Chinese economy, and the ever-growing dependence of the United States on Chinese manufacturing.
(Excerpt) Read more at asiatimes.com ...
excerpted:
“..It is noteworthy that before the Trump tariffs went into effect, China’s own reporting of its exports to the US was consistently lower than US reporting of its imports from China, probably because Chinese exports underreport export earnings in order to squirrel away funds in overseas accounts. After the Trump tariffs went into effect in August 2019, however, China’s export numbers exceeded US import nu...”
BUILD BACK BEIJING!
Chinese exports to the US will be dropping off very soon. People will not be spending as much on unnecessary things.
I grew up learning to avoid buying “Japanese junk”.
Hopefully many will learn to avoid buying Chinese crap.
“Hopefully many will learn to avoid buying Chinese crap”.
Don’t worry; if they don’t have any money, they’ll avoid it.
They’ll buy cheaper phones and go with cheaper plans from places like Consumer Cellular.
The withdrawal is going to be ugly.
“You think people will stop buying iPhone’s?
I know plenty of folks who’d cheerfully starve than not have their iPhones”.
I know the same types.
What will they do if they have no cell service for long periods of time?
I know I’d go through withdrawal without my cell and laptop.
That’s why I have many books.
We are also buying more Russian oil than ever before through intermediaries, who mark it up and flag it differently.
All that Chinese garbage will be sitting on shelves gathering dust while people spend most of their income on food and gas. The Biden inflation is destroying the economy.
You got it. People are moving into SURVIVAL MODE.
I seriously believe a large section of the world’s media, including importantly America’s, are in large part supportive of, compensated by, and actively have spun trade news wildly, in support of China. For real.
Have been, for decades.
In my humble opinion.
I am the same way.
I did not care for a long time, then I started to care a great deal.
Now it seems to me we may be starting to level out, I may be content for a while after my next upgrade.
Maybe.
Where is your computer made ? Cellphone ? Many parts of your car are made in China these days . Etc...
From these charts it seems Trump did make a dent on China’s huge trade differential.
Then the people that told you to avoid “Japanese junk” turned right around and sold you cheapened, shoddily made American garbage (particularly cars) and killed industries through low product quality, which the American industries farmed out to China, because hey, the customers are idiots who just buy on name alone, right?
We might not be in this mess if we’d bought Japanese instead. :P
That said, most of what China makes is garbage.
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