Trump-Backed 'Stop the Steal' Candidates Get Walloped in Georgia GOP Primaries

Townhall ^ | 05/25/2022 | Guy Benson

[SeekAndFind]

What many political observers initially expected to be a titanic clash between Georgia's incumbent Republican governor and the former president of the United States turned out to be a lopsided fight. Brian Kemp thumped Donald Trump's hand-picked challenger in the GOP primary, advancing to a gubernatorial re-match with Democrat Stacey Abrams in November. Abrams starts the general election campaign in a defensive crouch, engaged in damage control over her "worst state" self-inflicted blunder – while spinning incoherently about how "increased turnout has nothing to do with suppression," as her "Jim Crow 2.0" demagoguery goes up in smoke. Her opponent is the man who beat her four years ago, in a much more favorable Democratic environment. The fact that she's been spreading conspiratorial lies about that loss ever since doesn't change the reality she's gotten famous and rich by denying. Before looking too far ahead, let's assess the significance of Kemp's primary romp, along with a few additional notes from last night:

(1) Trump is still top dog... Many analysts are writing and talking about what a blow this is to Trump's influence. It's certainly a high-profile loss, and a stinging one at that. Trump wanted to defeat Kemp badly, as revenge for Kemp's correct and honorable refusal to help the former president try to steal Georgia's electoral votes in 2020. That Trump's proxy, David Perdue, got crushed is a healthy sign for the republic, as I see it. But Trump critics and skeptics shouldn't kid themselves. He's racked up some significant wins in other statewide races, between JD Vance in Ohio, and potentially Dr. Oz in Pennsylvania. There have been setbacks (Idaho and Nebraska governor, for instance) as well, but the notion that Trump's power within the party is clearly on the wane still strikes me as overstated wishful thinking. As things stand, Trump would enter the 2024 GOP presidential primary as a heavy frontrunner.

(2) ...But Trump's not invincible. It's more than possible to overstate the meaning of Kemp's victory, but it shouldn't be understated either. Trump threw everything at him. Perdue's entry into the race was marked by a Trump "complete and total" endorsement ad. The former president's operation and allies spent time and big money on the race. Trump meddled aggressively, including an in-person rally. This wasn't some throwaway blessing. It was personal. Kemp was exceptionally disciplined; he never lashed out at Trump, conveying a "hey, I've got no quarrel here" message to rank-and-file Republican voters in the Peach State. He couldn't avoid Trump's wrath, but he avoided stoking theirs. Focusing instead on notching conservative wins as governor, Kemp trained his fire on Stacey Abrams, "woke corporations," and other adversaries who unite center-right Georgians in opposition. Kemp accumulated useful enemies, in other words, and has established a track record of defeating them, too. This Politico deep dive into Kemp's campaign illustrates how the incumbent's operation was focused, ruthless, and successful. A passage: 

When Brian Kemp’s top donors huddled with the Georgia governor and his lieutenants at Atlanta’s Capital City Club earlier this year, they had reason to worry that his political career was about to come to an end...the Kemp team reassured the nearly 200 well-heeled contributors in attendance they had a plan...By the time Perdue launched his campaign in December, he found that Kemp had used the levers of his office to rally the support of state power players and pass legislation that assuaged pro-Trump voters. Kemp had won the backing of many of Perdue’s former longtime advisers, making it difficult for Perdue to build a political operation. And the governor had spent months aggressively courting the former senator’s biggest donors, leaving Perdue financially devastated and demolishing his plans to establish a big-spending super PAC.

...Last June, Kemp phoned Steve Hufstetler, a Georgia real estate developer and major GOP contributor, and asked if the two could meet at Hufstetler’s office. At first glance, Hufstetler was the type of donor who could conceivably fund a Perdue primary effort: He had given six-figures to Trump’s reelection effort, had served on Perdue’s Senate campaign finance committee and had been concerned about Kemp’s handling of the 2020 election. After the election, he had conducted an informal survey of Kemp supporters he knew and found they no longer backed the governor. But Kemp worked to sway Hufstetler during the 90-minute meeting, delivering what the developer later recounted to POLITICO as a “lengthy and data-driven explanation” about why he did not intervene in the vote count. Hufstetler walked away convinced — and eventually donated more than $100,000 to back the governor. The courtship illustrates how aggressively Kemp moved to deprive Perdue of money, effectively shutting down his fundraising reservoir.

They had a plan, and boy did they execute it. Kemp was smartly gracious to Perdue in his victory speech Tuesday night, but he also reveled a bit in the extent of his dominance: 

>@GovKemp trumpets the triumph of his allies over far-right challengers backed by Trump. “It looks like Team Kemp is chopping a lot of wood tonight.” #gapol pic.twitter.com/W5HM7OhQ3S— Greg Bluestein (@bluestein) May 25, 2022

And this is a good line, with an eye to the general, especially if it's married with reminders of Abrams' optics problem on COVID restrictions: 

Brian Kemp notes in his victory speech that Stacey Abrams criticized him for opening Georgia too soon during the pandemic. And he warns that, if she wins, the state will perennially be one covid variant away from more lockdowns. But he promises to never impose covid restrictions.— James Hohmann (@jameshohmann) May 25, 2022

(3) A "wow" margin. Late in the race, a fading and dyspeptic Perdue said that he still didn't believe the polls pointing to a blowout. "I guaran-damn-tee you we are not down 30 points," he said. He was right, just not in the way he meant. As of this morning, with well over 90 percent of the vote in, he trailed by roughly 50 points. A total shellacking. It's not just that Kemp ran a high quality campaign, though he did. Trump's endless, misplaced grievance act is wearing thin among even many 2016 and 2020 Trump voters. Not necessarily hardcore base members, but some of his supporters who are more invested in GOP wins and Democratic losses than personal loyalty dramas. This sentiment may run especially strong in Georgia, where Trump's claims depressed Republican turnout and thus handed two Senate seats – and therefore US Senate control – to the Democrats last year: 

Georgia underscores one of Trump’s big problems if/when he runs again. He, of course, won’t be able to let go of the 2020 nonsense, and nobody wants to hear his whining about it anymore.— Brendan Buck (@BrendanBuck) May 25, 2022

"Nobody" is too strong, but there's truth to this. A large, large number of right-leaning voters are still very much MAGA/America First enthusiasts. But quite a few of them are evidently not interested in an endless backwards-looking fight about 2020: 

Just about every “stop the steal” Republican is getting rejected by Republicans in Georgia tonight. The message is voters want to move forward, not settle Trump’s grievances for him.— Erick Erickson (@EWErickson) May 25, 2022

(4) A few other ink blots. Trump's guy didn't just lose the gubernatorial contest in Georgia. His pick for attorney general also got absolutely blown away by the incumbent, and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger – whom Trump personally pressured to "find" 2020 presidential votes, and who became a target of "stop the steal" ire – won re-nomination with an outright majority, avoiding a runoff. His Trump-backed challenger out-performed Perdue, but not by enough. Two institutions-defending Republicans held the line and recaptured their party's respective nominations.  hat's significant, and heartening, in my book.

Meanwhile, in Alabama, Rep. Mo Brooks came back from the dead to force a runoff in that state's GOP Senate contest (though he came in a distant second place). He did so not because of a Trump endorsement, but after he lost one. The former president didn't like Brooks' weak polling position a number of weeks ago, fearing that his horse would finish in an embarrassing and distant third place. In an effort to sidestep that political black eye, he withdrew his formerly "complete and total" endorsement of Brooks, under the ludicrous claim that Brooks – a fire-breathing right-wing "stop the steal" compatriot – had gone "woke." Brooks continued to promote himself as the MAGA candidate in the race, albeit after Trump's very public breakup with him. That's when he surged. That comeback, for which Trump cannot possibly take dubious, Mastriano-style credit, is noteworthy. Again, this doesn't mean that Trump's hold on the GOP is fading, or irreversibly diminished. Many, many Republicans covet Trump's imprimatur. But it doesn't signal nothing, either.

(5) Notes from the Lone Star State. Tuesday was a very dark day in Texas history, for obvious and gut-wrenching reasons. The elections moved forward, of course. Among other outcomes, in a key border district, a more moderate Democrat (the only House Dem to oppose the party's radical abortion bill) may have narrowly fought off a Squad-style challenge, barely prevailing in a runoff, pending final results. It should be a competitive seat in November. And with the state attorney general's easy re-nomination, might the multi-generational Bush political dynasty be finished? 

The last Bush family defeat in a Texas primary before tonight: pic.twitter.com/wTFtBcM8Sv— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) May 25, 2022

[Robert DeLong]

Law Enforcement Raids Nonprofits In ‘2000 Mules’ Ballot Trafficking Investigation – “Like Tweety Birds, They Sang”

[Observator]

I read that article. It's misleading- they lead with "Law Enforcement Raid/Witnesses Cooperating".

As you work through the fluff, it turns out that statement is just hearsay, with a bolded disclaimer at the bottom: There has been no official law enforcement press release at the time of this publication.

I do agree with you - if something like this really happens - it would be significant. And it would be reported by all news organizations. A couple of people making statements about what they heard with no official source-not so much.

[Candor7]

Too bad for Georgia,swamp wins big and whatch Abrams kerf Kemp in the worst way. Kemp wll not squeak by Abrams this time.

[calenel]

retch, wretch

[calenel]

“At least 1/5 of those races had an incumbent running unopposed.”

How many were unopposed because they backed Trump?

[Hostage]

Your research is deficient to say the least. You show no efforts, no data references, no related reports or commentary. You present zero analysis.

The Democrats that crossed over became Republicans for the primary. The increase in registered Republicans from 2008 to 2010was far above expected. Democrat commentary such as found on DU are replete with claims of crossing over to vote for McCain who voted and pushed illegal amnesty against Hayworth who was 100% against illegal immigration.

https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2503154/posts

https://seeingredaz.wordpress.com/2010/01/28/mark-levin-on-j-d-vs-mccain-this-is-a-race-between-a-conservative-vs-a-phony%E2%80%9D/

Weiers, a former House speaker, called the complaint “cynical” and said people have a right to run under whatever political banner they choose. “If somebody wants to do it,” he said of the last-minute registration change, “there’s nothing illegal about it. There’s nothing immoral.”
https://www.tucsonweekly.com/TheRange/archives/2010/08/31/az-democratic-party-republicans-recruiting-sham-green-candidates

[Robert DeLong]

I do agree with you - if something like this really happens - it would be significant. And it would be reported by all news organizations. A couple of people making statements about what they heard with no official source-not so much.

You mean like all the coverage they are giving the Sussmann case?

Listen, there has been a coordinated effort between Republicans & Democrats to commit this election theft, and the press is working with them to aide & abet these traitors to this nation.

So many anomalies occurred in this election, and if you honestly believe that Joe Biden captured more legitimate votes than Barack Obama, "The Messiah", that 18 of the 19 bellweather counties got it wrong after being correct for a span of 39 years straight, of which Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016, for a 64 year span, then I guess nothing will convince you.

It is statistically impossible that Biden won in a fair & free election. You also have to ignore the late night shenanigans where 5 or 6 swings states stopped counting, only they didn't, and large leads evaporated for Trump during that period.

Are you just playing the Devil's Advocate here, or are you truly not convinced that Trump won? 🙂

[Observator]

Your research is deficient to say the least. You show no efforts, no data references, no related reports or commentary. You present zero analysis.

Active Democrats registered in AZ 2008: 889,415
Active Republicans 2008: 1,029,450
https://apps.azsos.gov/election/voterreg/2008-01-10.pdf

Active Democrats registerd in AZ in 2010: 1,002,937
Active Republicans in 2010: 1,131,802
https://apps.azsos.gov/election/voterreg/2010-10-22.pdf

It's there in black&white. The trend you are describing simply didn't exist.

[little jeremiah]

The Jolt: Data shows thousands of Democrats voting in GOP primary

https://www.ajc.com/politics/politics-blog/the-jolt-data-shows-thousands-of-democrats-voting-in-gop-primary/GIKGG65EWZEF7J2JO2DJBCIA2I/

Are a significant number of Georgia Democrats part of the surge of voters casting ballots in GOP primaries? Early data suggests that could be the case.

AJC election guru Mark Niesse crunched the numbers and determined about 7% of Georgia voters who have cast GOP ballots so far previously pulled a Democratic ballot two years ago. That’s about 16,000 voters of the roughly 237,000 who voted in the Republican primary.

Since Georgia is an open primary state – meaning voters can choose whichever party’s ballot they want – crossing party lines to cast a primary vote is not a new phenomenon. But it could factor in tight races on May 24.

Some Democrats might vote strategically to help nominate a Republican they see as more vulnerable in November. Others may like Republican candidates or want to punish David Perdue and other candidates backed by former President Donald Trump.

[snip, more at link]

[sport]

My thought also. But it is what the people want. So maybe they will get it. I learned in toe 2020election that most people do not want prosperity. If the did, President Trump would be in the White House instead of Lying Joe Biden.

[Hostage]

You need to look at the primary data for 2008 and 2010 and compare rows for Democrats and Republicans.

You will notice a large increase in 2010 Republican registrations.

People that know me on FR know I have a doctorate in statistics and data science preceded by millions of 1080 dollars in military engineering training.

I will suffer this for the benefit of those lurking wishing to know about weakness in our election systems, in this case the primary election where states allow crossover registrations without deadline and crossover voting.

Given that you’ve focused on the wrong data, your performance here is zero. I’ve worked with the best in the world, you can take it to the bank that your loose cobbling together of irrelevant data has brought shame to FR, which in years past had some very notable members, but are now overwhelmed with swarms of mediocre internet graffiti scammers.

But you can try again

[Observator]

Given that you’ve focused on the wrong data, your performance here is zero. I’ve worked with the best in the world, you can take it to the bank that your loose cobbling together of irrelevant data has brought shame to FR, which in years past had some very notable members, but are now overwhelmed with swarms of mediocre internet graffiti scammers.

LOL - I'll take you at your word that you're a data scientist, but there's no doubting your expertise with the snark hammer. I love it!

You tell me I'm looking at the wrong thing - but I'm quoting and linking directly to Arizona .gov published voter registration from 2008 and 2010, as you specified I should in your previous post. Why is that invalid?

Can you post a link to an official government record that demonstrates this massive exodus from D->R because I'm just not seeing it. But I'll be happy to check out whatever you send, and I'll be the first to admit I'm wrong.

[Hostage]

You need to get rid of the punk attitude and follow through with delivering analysis results.

I’m giving you time here. You won’t get that anywhere else that’s worth it, not at your level.

[bankwalker]

It’s a noob

[Drew68]

How many Democrats crossed over to vote for RINOs? I’ll bet a good number of them.

Why would Democrats cross over to support the person who beat Stacy Abrams during a blue-wave election?

[FLT-bird]

because they know many Right leaning voters will not support him.

Same reason they crossed over to vote for Ratburger.

[Drew68]

Guy Benson missed the biggest point of all….. most Georgians do not dislike kemp

This. Kemp is a solid conservative who has been a great governor, --nearly DeSantis great.

Trump made the race personal. It had nothing to do with Kemp's policies as governor.

Hopefully he coasts easily to re-election.

Stacy Abrams will be an absolute disaster not only for Georgia, but for the United States. A gubernatorial victory would give her the momentum needed to pursue a presidential run.

[Drew68]

because they know many Right leaning voters will not support him.

I think you're going to be disappointed on Election Day.

[FLT-bird]

Then you’ll see the Republican party in Georgia continue to not do anything even when they are in office and you’ll see Georgia continue to drift leftward.

[Nifster]

No where near DeSantis great