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Is a recession coming in the next 12 to 18 months?
The hill ^ | 05/11/2022 | VIVEKANAND JAYAKUMAR

Posted on 05/11/2022 9:48:57 AM PDT by ChicagoConservative27

Economist Ezra Solomon once observed that the “only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” Historically, economists have had a terrible track record when it comes to making growth forecasts.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) during the 2007-2016 period had a tendency to persistently overestimate future GDP growth. After correcting for this tendency in the recent past, Fed officials found themselves making a new set of costly forecasting errors during the past year. They persistently underestimated inflation.

(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: coming; months; next; recession; stagflation
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To: ChicagoConservative27

When people have to pay $6 for a pound of ground beef and $5 for a gallon of gas, the economy has to slow down.


41 posted on 05/11/2022 11:05:25 AM PDT by lurk (u)
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To: ChicagoConservative27

With inflation cutting back on everyone’s spending abilities I would say it is already here. Tick tock tick tock.


42 posted on 05/11/2022 11:20:19 AM PDT by Parley Baer
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To: ChicagoConservative27

Yes, a recession is coming. Is needed. That’s how inflation is reduced, by reducing demand.


43 posted on 05/11/2022 11:47:30 AM PDT by babble-on
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To: cableguymn

Reagan


44 posted on 05/11/2022 11:52:58 AM PDT by griswold3 (When chaos serves the State, the State will encourage chaos.)
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To: ChicagoConservative27

+1


45 posted on 05/11/2022 12:47:24 PM PDT by sauropod ("We put all our politicians in prison as soon as they are elected. Don’t you?" Why? "It saves time.”)
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To: rexthecat

It’s recession if your neighbor is out of work. It’s a depression when you lose your job.


46 posted on 05/11/2022 1:03:29 PM PDT by Vermont Lt
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To: cableguymn

It’s a saying that goes back a lot longer than Rush.


47 posted on 05/11/2022 1:04:02 PM PDT by Vermont Lt
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To: cableguymn

Ronald Reagan.

Look up the quote.

Unfortunately it pertains today, just like back in Jimmah Certer’s day.

5.56mm


48 posted on 05/11/2022 1:06:41 PM PDT by M Kehoe (Quid Pro Joe and the Ho need to go.)
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To: ChicagoConservative27

Old saying—economists have successfully predicted twelve of the last three recessions. This one, though, seems like a no brainer.


49 posted on 05/11/2022 1:29:56 PM PDT by hinckley buzzard ( Resist the narrative.)
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To: gopno1

IDK who you think “they” is, but if it’s the fed, they are about out of gas. In the 70s it was stagnation and inflation. The cure was painful for awhile, but Reagan had the leadership skill to “hold the course” and it worked. The biden regime has no such legitimacy or character. There is no “course” to hold, with this bunch of banjo hitters.


50 posted on 05/11/2022 1:34:03 PM PDT by hinckley buzzard ( Resist the narrative.)
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To: Toddsterpatriot

That was it. In my defense I was 9 years old when Reagan won.


51 posted on 05/11/2022 3:19:42 PM PDT by cableguymn
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To: Robert A Cook PE

Yep.


52 posted on 05/12/2022 6:43:52 AM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually" (Hendrix) )
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To: MrRelevant

——waiting so long to act..-——

Is it waiting if he lacks the raw political power to do anything? He has no legislative branch tool. All Biden has is executive orders which are struck down before they can take effect.

Worse, he is losing in the courts for Republican state law suits finally making it to the top and decided against progressive aims.

He has from nowhere a strong political foe in the person of Elon Musk challenging his actions with words and then buying Twitter and exhibiting actual deeds. Musk did not take lightly the slap in the face of not being invited to the presidential meeting with EV manufacturers all of whom attended were UAW employers.

The only thing he can really do is use federal funds to reward those entities that turned out to vote.


53 posted on 05/12/2022 6:57:18 AM PDT by bert ( (KW?E. NP. N.C. +12) Promoting Afro Heritage diversity will destroy the democrats)
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To: bert

Im not sure how much political clout it wouldve taken to pressure the Fed to raise rates a year ago...but near zero rates are addictive to the left...they cannot help themselves....like crack....right to rock bottom, then they realize-we need to do something...too late.


54 posted on 05/12/2022 8:35:55 AM PDT by MrRelevant
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