Is a recession coming in the next 12 to 18 months?

The hill ^ | 05/11/2022 | VIVEKANAND JAYAKUMAR

[ChicagoConservative27]

Economist Ezra Solomon once observed that the “only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” Historically, economists have had a terrible track record when it comes to making growth forecasts.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) during the 2007-2016 period had a tendency to persistently overestimate future GDP growth. After correcting for this tendency in the recent past, Fed officials found themselves making a new set of costly forecasting errors during the past year. They persistently underestimated inflation.

[gibsonguy]

Sounds right so rats and the AD’s have rigged it.

[gibsonguy]

Sounds right so rats and the AD’s have rigged it.

[DownInFlames]

We’ll know the end of June. If GDP is in the negative, then yes we’re in a recession. By definition 2 conservative quarters of negative growth is a recession.

[Toddsterpatriot]

Reagan.

“And recovery is when Jimmy Carter loses his.”

[TexasGunLover]

stop excessive Government Spending

No one has ever done that, not even Trump or Reagan. Until someone does, and more than just a small 10% cut, none of the rest matters.

95% of non-military Federal Government spending is the minimum that needs to be permanently cut.

[Robert A Cook PE]

This entire article is foolish! We’ve just recorded ONE ENTIRE QUARTER of negative GDP “growth”. We are NOW starting Biden’s recession. Not 6 months or 12 months from now.

12 months from now, we will be 18 months into Biden’s recession.

[Deo volente]

Markets are turning south in a hurry. There was some green earlier today, and now down, down, down. But of course, the volatility is such that we might be up 400 points this afternoon. Little makes sense anymore.

All I know is that my personal misery index is UP. Thanks, Brandon!

[Roman_War_Criminal]

It started late last year dudes.

Biden and demonicrats own this recession.

[stanne]

Are they kidding?

It’s been here

[ratzoe]

It is already here. The only reason they want to say 12-18 months is so that they can blame on the Republicans winning in November.

^That

[MtnClimber]

CNBC Apr 28, 2022Gross domestic product in the U.S. declined at a 1.4% pace in the first quarter, below analyst expectations of a 1% gain.

The first quarter 2022 was negative. If the second quarter reports at the end of August are negative we will be in OFFICIAL recession territory.

[devane617]

Recession is already underway. It’s gonna be a nasty one this time. I’m remembering my folks talk about the 30’s and how hard life was—we’re headed back there.

[devane617]

Housing issues about to tumble worse than 2008 time frame.

[CodeJockey]

Never in my wildest hallucinations would I have though that in America, something as critical a baby formula would be in short supply. We’re becoming a third world country.

[Antoninus]

How stupid are these people? We had negative growth last quarter. If this quarter shows negative growth as well--then we're already in a recession.

My guess is that they'll announce in September that we had 0.6% growth in 2Q2022, just to say we're not in a recession, then correct it down to -2.8% in late November.

[Antoninus]

We’re becoming a third world country.

Complete with the obviously rigged elections.

[DAC21]

Stupid question. One negative GDP quarter down, one to go. Recession by the standard it has been determined in the past. Oh!, I forgot the Commies are in charge they will change the definition.

[CodeJockey]

Wasn’t Joe’s releasing petroleum from the US reserves suppose to lower fuel prices? And still the media does not ask that question.

[Paladin2]

Inflation causes the GDP to rise.

I don’t think they deflate the GDP numbers for inflation, so they won’t find a recessions that is actually occurring through that relatively simple measure.

[srmanuel]

both Trump and Reagan, along with Clinton had growing economies and Federal Reserve that wasn’t engaged in QE and in Reagan’s case a Fed Chairman that was committed to stop inflation.

Last week the Fed raised interest rates 50 basis points, Paul Voelker once raised interest rates 500 basis points.