Nate Silver Redistricting Analysis: Democrats poised to INCREASE their House majority in November

Fivethirtyeight ^ | April 13, 2022 | Fivethirtyeight Elections Analysis by Nate Silver

[nwrep]

Going strongly counter to the prevailing narrative, Nate Silver predicts that the Democrats will INCREASE their House majority in November.

Key findings:

Although Republicans went into the redistricting cycle with control over drawing more districts, it is actually Democrats who have gained ground from the process.

So far, redistricting has created 10 more Democratic-leaning seats nationally, six fewer Republican-leaning seats and five fewer highly competitive seats.

After accounting for incumbency, however, Democrats’ gains should be smaller: Democrats will likely flip between one and four seats in 2022 due to redistricting. In addition, Republicans have helped their own cause by converting light-red districts into safer seats in states like Texas.

Bottom line - Silver predicts against the grain that the Dems will actually WIN the November House elections.

If so, it will be a huge shock for all.

[DesertRhino]

We all talk about voter fraud, but never manage to notice that this same fraudulent system has also put the main GOPe leaders in their positions too.

Think about it.

[unixfox]

Just keep drinking the bong water Nate.

[Jim Noble]

Let’s say I wanted to run for Congress in NH-1 as a MAGA candidate (I don’t, but go with it for a second).

First of all, the party has already got their guy. I’ve been told I need AT LEAST $750,000 and maybe more to play this game.

Second of all, when THEY win, we are supposed to support them. When WE win, they go right to the Democrat.

The incumbent is a vanilla gay guy (Will & Grace) engaged to his boyfriend who gets diversity points and who stands for nothing and is therefore invulnerable on policy grounds.

So, my prediction?

The GOPe will win most primary races. Their strategy - see nothing, say nothing, Biden bad - is a loser. In the critical Obama x 2, then Trump CDs in the midwest, the only thing people hate worse than Democrats is Republicans.

So, as I said, you can’t beat something with nothing, and nothing is what the GOPe is.

Things break right, R+10 and Speaker McCarthy. Things go bad, D+15.

[Jim Noble]

just targeting a black neighborhood does not mean they will mostly vote for the Dim, as it used to be

Of course it does.

[StAnDeliver]

"So, as I said, you can’t beat something with nothing, and nothing is what the GOPe is."

When your enemy is printing bad money that is worth less than the day before in an election year, you get the f out of his way.

Look I don't like either prick -- Bald Pate Nate or McCarthy. But the margin is something Freepers could enhance, with some MAGA candidates in close races, if we could get back here to organizational posts and moneybam posts and breaking ugly news on the Democrats.

[1Old Pro]

And when he’s proven totally wrong with a GOP landslide, he’ll hide away for a few weeks and come back with full credibility.

[Alas Babylon!]

My prediction for the 2022 Elections

All the Eyores on Free Republic will absolutely pontificate on "Oh Me, oh my, woe is me! dems cheat, dems will win, GOP has no chance..."

Ad Nauseum until November 9th.

[dljordan]

“Silver seems to assume however, that Dems are going to keep all their current seats and add some with redistricting. “

Good, we want them to assume that.

[Mr. Blond]

You’re not voting your way out of this.

[yesthatjallen]

Do you believe the 2020 election was stolen?

If you do believe the 2020 election was stolen what measures have been taken to ensure the integrity of the next election?

If you believe the 2020 election was stolen and little or nothing has been done to ensure the integrity of the next election, why would anyone believe the results of the next election will be legitimate?

[Trailerpark Badass]

Designated Loser

[poconopundit]

Great. Thanks.

Knowing you’ve studied this election in depth, it gives me great confidence, we will turn out winners. But your prediction is not the greatest of victory margins.

[StAnDeliver]

"And when he’s proven totally wrong with a GOP landslide, he’ll hide away for a few weeks and come back with full credibility."

This.

It's like F@g Rump's clickbait yesterday: "Ooooh, swish, everyone is just tho' over the Donald."

Do we post blog posts or Instagram updates from RuPaul? Fwank is exactly the same depraved bullshit. Bluntz should be banned from FreeRepublic.com.

[packrat35]

I bet that my prediction is closer than Nate’s. R +32 in the House & +4 in the Senate.

[colorado tanker]

Has Nate been to Colorado lately? He must be smoking some really good stuff.

[StAnDeliver]

"Do you believe the 2020 election was stolen?"

For you to even ask that question proves you are unserious or just stupid.

Here's your sign.

[sopo]

That sounds right, it has to be based on some kind of turnout model

[generally]

Just my opinion, but.....

I believe Silver made accurate predictions in the past because the election fraudsters gave him advance information on how the elections would be fixed.

It’s like buying/selling stock with inside information, only more accurate.

[minnesota_bound]

Is Nate on drugs?

[Republican Wildcat]

“Has Nate Silver been correct in previous predictions? Is he a liberal shill? What’s his track record?”

He was correct in 2012 - probably in large part because of Hurricane Sandy as polls were shifting away from his analysis until that happened.

Since then, hit or miss...but his 2012 prediction gave him “credibility” - he was way off in 2016.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S8jlymRjiO8

https://youtu.be/Dc7AHfk6AcM?t=1190