Posted on 03/30/2022 10:10:13 AM PDT by Kevmo
Toward the end of the video, before questions, he shows the map. If you don’t want to go through the whole thing basically everything to the east of the Dnieper river voted for the Russophile candidates, to the west the vote was for the Europhile.
The main takeaway is Ukraine is a very divided country, politically and ethnically. Diversity is not a strength in this instance.
I stopped watching once the questions started, the video is just too long.
69% of Ukrainians want to join NATO, according to a June 2017 poll by the Democratic Initiatives Foundation
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-nato-idUSKBN19V12V
I’m just pointing out what the Budapest Memorandum says and doesn’t say, and provided a link to the memo. Russia violated the agreement, not the US. Clearly, Putin is the bad guy here. He violated his agreement, invaded a sovereign nation, is murdering their people and destroying their cities, and will likely steal their resources and leave behind a humanitarian disaster if he isn’t stopped. There are moral and geopolitical arguments to be made for defending Ukraine against Russia, and who should/shouldn’t do it.
And that’s what the problem in the Donbass region was, at least according to the video. Basically ethnic Russians fighting ethnic Ukrainians. The government that gained power in 2014 demoted the Russian language as one of the official languages. IDK but the ethnic Russians were probably part of the 31% who didn’t want NATO.
Seems like this type of ethnic tension, especially if the minority perceives itself as being suppressed, is the root of a lot of conflicts. The Balkan Wars of the 1990’s are a great example.
You acknowledge that he violated the agreement.
Ireland signed that agreement, and would be well within their rights to send Irish soldiers to push back Russian soldiers to the borders in that agreement.
No big deal.
Britain signed it also. No big deal for them, right? But... THEY have nukes. So now allofasudden it’s a risking situation of nukes versus nukes. Not so big a deal because it’s just a bunch of idiot Europeans.
WE ALSO signed the agreement. But pantywaist appeasers allofasudden wanna start finding ways that we aren’t morally obligated to “respect the borders”.
We can easily say “Russia claims to have not violated the agreement by a ‘special military exercise’, so that’s what WE are doing, our own ‘special military exercise’ that really DOES respect those borders.”
This is an existential war for the Ukes. They HONORED that agreement which the Rukes have violated twice. So they would be well within their rights to pursue nukes, just like we did when we were in our existential war. Who are we to scold them for doing it, especially since we are betraying them?
Keeping this thing CONVENTIONAL rather than pushing the Ukes into a Nuke Corner is the right thing to do.
I really doubt this was about ethnic tension. It was about OIL. We didn’t hear shiite about ethnic tensions in Dumbass Donbass until after oil & gas were discovered.
Oil was discovered while it was Ukraine, so it should be Ukrainian oil & gas. If those ethnic whatevers wanna have their own ethnic republic, let them make enough waves to have a referendum without any Russian interference, but they shouldn’t get one drop of oil nor one liter of natural gas, because we all know this is about energy, not enthicity.
Yes the energy is a huge part of the equation with one of the largest gas fields in Europe located there and in Crimea. It was a major factor but there were others, mainly the proximity of NATO troops to Moscow. Whether true or not, Russia clearly believes that NATO is a threat and they have been saying so for many years. That’s why non-membership in NATO or other military alliances is one of their conditions:
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4050584/posts
When I worked at State, during the invasion of Crimea, we belived Russia was balking at the pipeline fees which made war with Ukraine more possible. We already had two breakaway provinces in Ukraine and fully expected Putin to advance to the River midway across that nation.
In future years we will hear about those fees Ukraine demanded as payment all this time for Russian Oil.... Bookmark this.
It was a major factor but there were others, mainly the proximity of NATO troops to Moscow.
***Estonia was in proximity to Moscow, why didn’t Vlad the Imploder invade them? Because they were part of NATO, that’s why. Bullies don’t pick on those who have protection.
Also, Estonia doesn’t have such yuge oil & gas reserves. Russia didn’t say much about Ukraine, even just plain ABANDONED their nukes there, when they were disintegrated. 3-4 years after that disintegration they sign the Budapest Memorandum. The Ukes HONOR that agreement, then oil is discovered and now allofasudden Vlad has a problem with supposed NATO sites being 200 miles closer to Moscow than they were before. What a pile of bullshit. This is about oil.
Got some kind of link? Because your writing is a tad incoherent.
What war?
According to the video, if you watch it, when the Baltic states were added Russia was in a very weak situation militarily and economically. I am not a foreign policy expert just telling you what was in the video so you won’t have to spend 90 minutes watching it.
Well, sure, strength vs. weakness is part of the set of issues over there.
At the time they signed it they left a ton of extremely dangerous strength on the ground but the relatively weak Ukes didn’t wanna have anything to do with that nuke strength of bein’ capable of killing hundreds of millions of people. I kinda admire that weakness vs. strength thing in that context.
At the time we all signed that agreement, America was strong, Russia weak, Ukraine weak. It made sense to sign it for all 3. Fast forward 3 decades, no it did not make sense for Ukraine to sign it because they have been invaded twice in violation of that agreement and keeping those nukes woulda voided off that whole problem both times.
In 2012 when oil & gas were discovered there were very very very [do ya get that ‘very’ thing yet?] very few ethnic incidents over Dumnbass Donbass or the other supposedly ethnic regions.
In 2014 Vlad invaded, having stirred up trouble in those regions where the oil & gas were. Russia was strong again, Ukraine still weak and more importantly, America had some weird anti-American weakling jackass as prez.
In 2016 America did not have a weakling anti-America as prez, and sure enough, Vlad flowed like water along the line of least resistance, didn’t cause trouble over there. Ukes were weak.
In 2021 America once again had a weakling jackass as prez and Vlad invades again.
Yes, strength-vs-weakness analysis has much to reveal about what is going on over there. But it really still is about oil because if the land was worthless, Vlad woulda ignored it.
But Russian Nukes, ships, submarines, fighters and bombers, and thousands of troops in Kaliningrad is A-OK. Russian nukes inside Europe, threatening all of the surrounding European countries? Maybe we should demand Kaliningrad be demilitarized since it's not just adjacent, but "within our borders" and not contiguous with any Russian territory.
Right now, Putin has nuclear weapons in the Baltics (Kaliningrad). Russia is the ONLY country with nuclear weapons in the Baltics. Imagine for a moment the hysterical fit Putin would throw if NATO announced it was stationing nuclear missiles in Estonia or Latvia? Russia has threatened to station nuclear weapons in Crimea, and suggested they have already done so in reaction to our Aegis Ashore system in Poland (a defensive anti-missile system). If Russia takes Ukraine, is there any doubt they will station nuclear weapons there, as well as air and ground forces that will threaten NATO? Russia talks about NATO, Nazis, corruption and "existential threats", but it's all about the gas, oil and geopolitical influence. Energy, control and power. IMHO, obviously.
The problem with “agreements” by the USA is they carry no force of law as does a treaty. We learned this in 6th grade. The diplomats should have been aware of this in their negotiations. Guarantee a neutral Ukraine in exchange for security assurances and nukes.
If it were a treaty this whole situation would not happen. And these things are exactly what is being negotiated between the two now. Only now a lot of people are dead. And yes it would be much preferable that a skillet negotiator were President. Maybe someone whose initials are DJT.
The problem with “agreements” by the USA is they carry no force of law as does a treaty.
***Oh, sure they do. If we wanted to we could send whatever forces we want into that region. The Gulf of Tonkin was on much thinner grounds.
We learned this in 6th grade.
***Then the 6th graders are about to learn another set of lessons, perhaps. It would be the lessons that people who face a suitcase nuke in a Russian city suffer because their
@$$#0/e leader chose to OBVIOUSLY violate an agreement in their name.
The diplomats should have been aware of this in their negotiations.
***Do you suppose the diplomats are aware of the Uke nuke program right now? Ever wonder why the Ukes sent a missile into Russian territory, hmmmmmm?
https://nypost.com/2022/03/29/ukraine-missile-may-have-hit-military-camp-inside-russia/
Guarantee a neutral Ukraine in exchange for security assurances and nukes.
***Those assurances are worth less than their weight in toilet paper. We are pushing the Ukes into a nuke corner by not showing “respect” for their borders.
If it were a treaty this whole situation would not happen.
***When Vlad is backgrounded by a nuke plume above his favorite Ruke city, we’ll get back to you on this pantywaist appeasement approach.
And these things are exactly what is being negotiated between the two now.
***You may be right. Having the ability to send just one missile onto Russian territory could be enough to back off the Russians permanently. Where do YOU think the nuke demo should go off inside Russia, assuming there’s only maybe 5 or 6 suitcase nukes?
Only now a lot of people are dead.
***We are pushing the Ukes in their existential war into a nuke corner, where a helluva lot more people could be dead.
And yes it would be much preferable that a skillet negotiator were President.
***Skilled, I take it. When we did have a skilled negotiator, there were NO incidents with Vlad the Imploder. Imagine that.
Maybe someone whose initials are DJT.
***We’ll never get the libtards to own up to that.
It doesn’t seem reasonable or possible for Russia to occupy western Ukraine. They are going for independent ethnic Russian areas (some of which have petroleum and gas) in the east; that was one of their initial demands. Looking at the map every place Russia has boots on the ground is in the east.
The reality of Russian nukes and ships in Kaliningrad does not mean the Russians are not paranoid. There has been talk of this since the days of the Tea Party, and probably much earlier than that:
https://teapartyamerica.blogspot.com/2011/11/russian-paranoia.html
Paranoia may or may not have a logical basis, but it is important to realize it exists.
.
“Do you suppose the diplomats are aware of the Uke nuke program right now? Ever wonder why the Ukes sent a missile into Russian territory, hmmmmmm?”
This story was really strange. The initial Twitter post came from an organization which mapped military operations in Ukraine. The maps showed areas in Russia hit.
Here is my comment to the post https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/4050684/posts:
What’s really weird is if you go to the website listed at the top of the thread it shows where the explosions occurred.
Then go to Google Maps, look up the location, click on the name and then translate Russian into English. It is a chicken farm. Maybe munitions were hidden there.
Maybe a chicken pecked too hard on one of the primers?
And yes, I agree that Ukraine is being pushed into this situation. Posts made over the last three days on FR show that Turks are hopeful the negotiations they are mediating will lead to a peace agreement. Then some western source, often the US, keeps throwing cold water on the process.
Maybe a chicken pecked too hard on one of the primers?
***DYYOMANK! Damn You, You Owe Me A New Keyboard!
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