Fertilizers inflation presages a global food supply crisis

https://www.ft.com ^ | 3/27/2022

[RomanSoldier19]

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We know that the war in Ukraine has led to sharp increases in prices for both food and fuel. This in turn has sparked concern that we may see a repeat of the famine and food riots that took place in 22 countries in the years following the global financial crisis, caused by a perfect storm of rising commodities prices.

While US wheat farmers should be in a good position to help buffer some of the pain from agricultural disruptions in Ukraine and Russia, they are worried about inflation of another sort — in fertiliser.

The war is part of that problem, too. Russia was until recently the second largest foreign exporter of fertiliser to the US, providing 10 per cent of the total supply. But it is not the only reason prices are rising.

[Mariner]

BOTH Oil and wheat have doubled in the last 122 months.

Both are likely to double again.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/wheat

So has lumber

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber

Russia is in the top 3 exporters of the above commodities.

[Mariner]

12 months

[blueunicorn6]

It’s spread out all over the globe.

Russia doesn’t have a monopoly on it.

[PeterPrinciple]

It’s spread out all over the globe.

Russia doesn’t have a monopoly on it.

---

Perceptions is more important than reality, sad to say.

[catnipman]

full article link:

https://archive.ph/mTWRK

[taterjay]

Like Slow Joe is gonna let us make more of anything.

So, I think most us farmers bought fertilizer on the way up in the late fall early winter. We paid more and may have cut back a little to justify, but you gotta have it. My realization is what will happen this fall if it does not go down. Or will it be like gasoline at 4 and then we will think it is cheap at 3??. And there is also a rail strike in Canada where we get fertilizer supplies.

The point is that fertilizer has tripled to quadrupled. Yes, beans, corn and wheat have gained which is helpful, but what about beef and grass and hay??? Beef has not gained at the farm level. I guess we will have to take the Bill Gates route and go all SYNTHETIC beef. Yuk!

So, like anything, we can adjust for one year I suppose. But when you see SloJo or Kamalahahahaha for the forseeable future it does cause indigestion for the farmer or small business person.

[bantam]

My buddy who farms said the Midwest farms go almost 100% non manue fertilizer, and that’s where the bulk of all grains come from. The northeast/east coast farms are a drop in the bucket production wise to the Midwest
His fertilizer was $400/ton last year, this yr $1000/ton