Posted on 03/15/2022 12:04:19 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
In an interview with Reuters, Dmitry Peskov, Russian President Vladimir Putin's spokesman for decades, made a startling offer. Moscow could end the Ukraine war immediately, said Peskov, if four conditions were met.
Ukraine should cease all military action, recognize Crimea as part of Russia, accept the independence of the Luhansk and Donetsk separatist enclaves, and enact a constitutional commitment to "neutrality," which would prevent Ukraine from ever joining NATO.
Were this to be done, said Peskov, the war "will stop in a moment."
As this would restore the situation in Ukraine to the "status quo ante" that existed before Putin ordered the invasion, Peskov's offer seemed not to be believable.
Yet, according to The New York Times, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky "seemed surprisingly open to the idea."
Zelensky "said he had 'cooled down' on joining NATO, saying it was clear the western alliance 'is not prepared to accept Ukraine.'"
As for Luhansk, Donetsk and Crimea, said Zelensky, "We can discuss and find a compromise on how these territories will live on."
Monday, Ukraine and Russia held a fourth session of peace talks, and expressions of optimism were heard from both sides.
Ukrainian negotiator Mykhailo Podolyak volunteered that Russia is beginning to talk constructively. "I think that we will achieve some results literally in a matter of days."
Yet, Russia's strategic goals, manifest in its unfolding military action, seem to go far beyond the moderate demands of Peskov.
Three weeks into this war, what do Russia's goals appear to be?
First, besiege and bring down the Kyiv government of Zelensky and replace it with a Russian client regime.
Second, divide Ukraine along the lines of the Dnieper River, which bisects the country north to south, and create an East Ukraine as a pro-Russian state.
Third, seize and occupy the entire coast of the Sea of Azov, turn it into a Russian lake, and capture all of the Ukrainian Black Sea coast from the Donbas to Mariupol, Crimea, Kherson, Odessa and Transnistria, the last a slice of seceded Moldovan land Moscow now controls.
This would leave a landlocked rump state of west Ukraine, which would be a buffer between NATO nations Romania, Hungary, Slovakia and Poland -- and Russia-backed East Ukraine.
The Wall Street Journal said Monday that Russia's realization of these goals would be tantamount to victory in Putin's war:
"A Ukraine divided in two, with Russia in control of the east, and a rump, Western Ukraine cut off from the coast might look like a victory to Mr. Putin -- especially if sanctions are removed in some cease-fire agreement."
With this kind of peace in hand, Putin could then warn the NATO nations that if they attacked East Ukraine directly, or indirectly by arming insurgents, they would face "consequences you have never seen."
As no NATO nation risked war to save Georgia from Russia in 2008, or to save Ukraine from the Crimean and Donbas amputations of 2014, it is not likely NATO would risk war with Russia, and a potential third world war, if Russia declared a truce once it got full control of eastern Ukraine.
Where would that leave the West?
The Americans and British would likely treat Putin as a pariah and never meet with him again. But would President Emmanuel Macron of France and Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany cut off all communication with Russia, when they have been making daily phone calls to Putin and regular visits to Moscow, even as Putin's war of aggression was raging?
If Russia and Ukraine reached a ceasefire and a truce, would the EU and NATO nations of Europe not swiftly stand down themselves, rather than keep the Ukrainian resistance fighting?
If Kyiv falls to a Russian strategy of encirclement and strangulation, capitulation and conquest, how long would it be before EU nations seek an end to Russia's isolation and a new era of detente?
Or would the continued existence of a regime headed by Putin mean permanent hostility?
Three years after Nikita Khrushchev sent Soviet tanks into Budapest to crush the Hungarian Revolution of 1956, the Soviet premier was riding up Pennsylvania Avenue in an open convertible with Dwight Eisenhower to spend the night at Blair House before a 12-day tour as the guest of the president of the United States.
As of now, the winner of this Russia-Ukraine war appears to be China.
Given the severity of U.S. sanctions and the ostracism of Russia from the West, China is the only partner nation and economy to which Moscow can turn to recoup its losses.
If this war continues to unfold in a manner that is slow, painful and ugly, China and Russia are likely to establish far better relations with each other than either has with the United States.
But how is China, which is engaged in cultural genocide against its Uyghur minority of 10 million, a racial and ethnic persecution featuring reeducation camps, rapes, forced abortions and sterilizations, a morally superior regime to Putin's?
And Biden is supposedly going to Europe
1938 and Munich come to mind.
Looks like Ukraine is being told to surrender.
Sounds like a good segment of “Conservative Inc” is channeling their inner appeaser these days.
This reminds me of the 1930s British Establishment who thought they could “do business with Hitler”
A negotiated settlement. Stop punishing the people.
The Ukraine has three demands:
How about you pick up sticks
move your troops out and
pull your head out of your ass.
Whatever it is, Washington will get the final say.
If negotiated properly this could stop Putin’s march and safeguard many countries. If that happens Russia can be pulled into the fold of sane nations - as with Japan and Germany after World War II. Tell Putin, “here’s the path to peace, sanity, and having a wealthy country”...
Yeah, it’s a dream but it’d be better having Russia with us or neutral - if we have to take on Iran/China....
Pat’s ready to give the entire Eastern half of Ukraine to Putin, but today there is very little desire among the population there to be a part of Putin’s Russia except for in the Crimea and among the fanatic separatists who control the guns in DPR and LPR.
My guess is that Putin is not going to get serious about a settlement until he makes one final go at taking Kyiv and killing Zelensky and perhaps also a failed attempt to take Odessa and link up to Transnistria.
After they give up their nukes.
Putin isn’t going to get anything east of the Dnieper without a fight. Buchanan is dreaming if he thinks Zelenskyy would accept it, and Russia seems unable or unwilling even to force a successful siege of Kiev.
“As this would restore the situation in Ukraine to the “status quo ante” that existed before Putin ordered the invasion”
That was the reality on the ground before the first shot was fired...excepting the political formalities of such.
“Looks like Ukraine is being told to surrender.”
There was never any choice.
The nut ball posts from that have dominated this thread from those who have completely bought into the MSM narrative are more amusing than scary. Hey idiots, no one wants to start WWIII over protecting the current corrupt regime installed in Ukraine. Biden, Pelosi, Romney and et. al. have “sons” who were paid off big time and they have now honored their obligation with tough talk. Although Biden in a dementia caused moment of honesty is the one who gave the green light to Putin by saying that we wouldn’t do anything if it was just a “minor incursion”.
Wake up you pack of good for nothing arm chair generals. This thing is going to be over soon for the good of everyone except the die hard war hawks who want nothing more than for this thing to blow up and cause the entire world to go into chaos. You have bought into the propaganda and its more than a little embarrassing to the rest of us.
Putin himself called for demilitarization and denazification.
Putin might want Ukraine to have German-type anti-Nazi laws.
Handing alleged “Nazis” over to Russia for trial is probably not in the cards.
Demilitarization would need to be limited to types of weapons and depend on location. The Russians should clarify what they expect.
Neutrality is probably a must.
Each side should specify the territory it wants (Russia) and is willing to relinquish (Ukraine).
The EU negotiator for Brexit (picked by Macron I believe) seemed to be a tough negotiator.
Perhaps his services could be useful.
Take a look at a picture of Putin.
He is perfectly comfortable handing out death.
Chamberlain was welcomed home after Munich by cheering crowds lining British streets.
It was Hitler who blew the Munich deal by taking over all of Czechoslovakia.
Nobody is that stupid.
“Demilitarization would need to be limited to types of weapons and depend on location. The Russians should clarify what they expect.”
The problem is what credibility does Russia have? If Ukraine disarms what is to stop Putin trying to invade for a third time?
They had a neutrality agreement signed in 1994 for Ukraine to give up its nukes. Russia violated it.
Ukraine needs to either be in NATO, or it needs to be a Taiwan/Israel style fortress state.
No it wasn't. Ukraine had the inherent right of any sovereign nation to join other nations in collective self-defense. Putin is demanding it surrender that right.
And even on the ground, the pro-Russia separatists only controlled portions of Donbas and Luhansk. Russia's proposal has them more than doubling that territory.
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