Posted on 03/15/2022 12:04:19 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
I'm curious to see if anyone will respond to this point, because I can't possibly fathom what it would be. The Russians are literally demanding that the Ukrainians demilitarize/disarm and pledge not to see any defensive alliances with anyone. Russia surely isn't worried about Ukraine actually invading Russia, so why else insist on demilitarization unless you were planning to bully/blackmail/invade them moving forward?
That time has passed, IMO.
Zelensky knows (or he should know) that short of outright victory and independence from Russia, his days are numbered. You don't defy and humiliate Putin and get to live. Putin has already sent teams into Ukraine to assassinate him. With borders down and troops stood down, like what would happen after a peace deal, they'll succeed next time.
Too obvious, you say? But Putin won't need to be subtle. There are other states in the former USSR that need to see what happens when you defy Mother Russia.
I know the thought of Putin having his boot on the throat of another nation thrills you guys to no end, but I think there's a good chance you will be disappointed.
I don't think Zelenky would ever agree to disarm, which means Russia will have to force the issue by either flattening/depopulating all the cities of Ukraine, or taking them by storm. And then, without a Ukrainian surrender, Russia will have to garrison the entire country into the indefinite future and face an unending guerilla campaign with the Russian economy in a tailspin. Because if he goes that far, Europe and the U.S. will end up cutting off all trade -- eventually even including fossil fuels.
Now, maybe Putin's actually willing to do that, but in that case, he'll need to mobilize and arm another million or so troops. So let's see if he begins that mass mobilization sometime in the next few weeks.
Each side is going to have to give something. Maybe Ukraine staying economically free and sovereign but staying out of NATO and the EU political union.
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Russia and Ukraine already agreed to that in the 1994 Budapest accord. Then Russia broke their word and invaded Ukraine. An agreement with Russia is worth nothing.
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Better to give it a try than continue a war and sanctions that leave everybody worse off. The sanctions may induce Putin to keep his word.
Which is one reason why Zelensky will never agree to a peace deal that requires the Ukraine to demilitarize. And a whole lot of very stubborn and occasionally drunk Ukrainians will join him and continue fighting rather than agreeing to that.
Regardless of the outcome, the sanctions should never come off. The only thing we buy from them is energy and we can get domestically. Russia can never be allowed this kind of leverage again.
so true. This thing was over with as soon as Russia crossed the line. The only question was how many people were going to die.
“I know the thought of Putin having his boot on the throat of another nation thrills you guys to no end”
Why would you think that?
I am an indifferent observer. I have no emotional investment in any of it.
The only worthwhile war goal is regime change in Russia.
For his resignation as President Putin should be offered amnesty, an end to all sanctions, and Crimea, + EU membership for Russia if the new government wants it. The Donbas republics should be autonomous, and Ukraine should get Black Sea oil and gas rights.
Assuming Putin isn't crazy or stupid, he gets his warm water port and a land route to it. He get's promise of no NATO in Ukraine and he has a chance to reestablish energy trade with western Europe. Does he rock this boat or float peacefully?
Who knows?
You’re probably right. I wish Trump was President....
You: Why would you think that? I am an indifferent observer. I have no emotional investment in any of it.
You, in another thread: "Russia is taking back what was stolen from them.
https://freerepublic.com/focus/news/4046923/posts?page=154#154
Wouldn’t matter. Putin was going to do this one way or the other. He knows the math. America CANNOT get involved. We CANNOT have 2 nuclear powers shooting at each other. That’s how we got out of the Cold War alive, never put a nuclear power in a position to lose a war with another nuclear power. Nothing about Trump changes that math.
“But Putin won’t need to be subtle. There are other states in the former USSR that need to see what happens when you defy Mother Russia.”
Belarus and what else?
Everyone else wants to be part of the EU trade block, be richer than some africa nation in GDP and be welcomed at the party with the cool kids.
Each one of these nations has reasons not to be in a block with Russia and China, simply they will get ran over by China needs in the next 5 decades.
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Belarus
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Moldova
Tajikistan
Uzbekistan
The only worthwhile war goal is regime change in Russia.
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We need a regime change here and in Brussels first.
They’re the bigger threat.
I have an opinion. but no emotional investment.
When you look at how that shook out (both in the 1930s and 1990s) it appears he was right; they certainly are more credible as Czech Republic and Slovakia.
I guess the problem is the reason so many leaders were open to giving the Sudetenland back then, and so many leaders today turned a blind eye to Ukraine’s losses in 2014, are similar - the number of non-natives in the disputed region.
Our Central American mini-wars in the 1980s showed we wouldn’t tolerate a strong power building up too close to us; if the West agreed to Russia sharing a Canada-style (undefended) border with Ukraine in the 1990s, then it played a key role in giving up Russian control of the area at the time.
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