Posted on 03/15/2022 12:04:19 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
If Ukraine accepts those terms, Russia will roll through the entire rest of the country within a year.
Go back to the status before the war? They sacrificed much for little.
I tended to assume that the Russian East Ukraine would welcome rule from Moscow. But that is where the toughest resistance is. Since the initial advances the Russians haven’t been able to advance hardly at all.
Even Kiev is a Russian-speaking city, and they show no signs of giving in.
I think Putin believed his own propaganda and is having his hat handed to him.
If they can hold out, it is Putin who will be removed from office before this is over.
Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov’s four conditions that Ukraine should cease all military action, recognize Crimea as part of Russia, accept the independence of the Luhansk and Donetsk separatist enclaves, and enact a constitutional commitment to “neutrality,” which would prevent Ukraine from ever joining NATO. Seems reasonable to me.
Ukraine should cease all military action, recognize Crimea as part of Russia, accept the independence of the Luhansk and Donetsk separatist enclaves, and enact a constitutional commitment to “neutrality,” which would prevent Ukraine from ever joining NATO.
Were this to be done, said Peskov, the war “will stop in a moment.”
As this would restore the situation in Ukraine to the “status quo ante” that existed before Putin ordered the invasion, Peskov’s offer seemed not to be believable.
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But was that really the “Status Quo Ante”?
The seperatist enclaves had been granted independence? There was literally a “constitutional commitment” to a postition of neutrality with regards to Russia and Europe/NATO?
Thank you for this blast of sanity.
“Ukraine had the inherent right of any sovereign nation to join other nations in collective self-defense”
Sure, they have the right to try.
But nobody wants to join them.
So they are getting their ass kicked.
Because Russia always held the trump card. And that card is the real willingness to undertake existential war to ensure Ukraine remained in their orbit. In spite of their “inherent right of any sovereign nation to join other nations in collective self-defense”
Nobody else on the planet is willing to undertake existential war over Ukraine.
Nobody.
So Ukraine remains in the Russian orbit and there’s not a damn thing anybody can do about it.
That was before the invasion, when there were territories disputed between UK and Russia that could have served as a flashpoint. Depending on how that is resolved, that may not be an issue down the road.
Just for example, let's say that Ukraine ends up agreeing to handing over defined Crimean borders to Russia, and to either independence or elections for the disputed territories in the east. If those issues are resolved, and the Ukrainian political system stays stable, it is entirely possible that other nations may be willing to enter into a security agreement with Ukraine.
Ukraine does not want to surrender that possibility, nor should they. In addition, the Russian demand that Ukraine disarms unilaterally is completely ridiculous. Putin has just demonstrated that what happened in Ukraine 90 years ago was no abberation. Russia simply does not value the lives of Ukrainians.
Forgetting geopolitics for a second, helping the Ukrainians if they wish to resist when it does not cost us any American lives is something I personally view as a moral imperative.
Each side is going to have to give something. Maybe Ukraine staying economically free and sovereign but staying out of NATO and the EU political union.
Zelensky is a made-for-TV prop for Biden. Z will agree to whatever deal makes Biden look best. Just waiting on his marching orders.
“it is entirely possible that other nations may be willing to enter into a security agreement with Ukraine”
Not if Russia says NO.
Chamberlain left Czechoslovakia defenseless; many of their defensive positions in the west were in the part transferred to Germany (prior to Hitler tsking the rest).
Except it can’t be negotiated properly. At the core the argument is that Putin wants to dictate what Ukraine does (constitutionally forbidden from western alliances) and Ukraine wants to be their own country. There’s really nothing to negotiate. Either Putin loses and learns the limits of his power, or he wins and he’ll keep rolling.
Hitler never considered Czechoslovakia to be a real country. Just a bastard child of The Versailles Treaty meant to be a British and French “colony” on Germany’s doorstep.
Well that's part of what this war is about, isn't it? Whether Ukraine has to be Russian's byatch in perpetuity.
That may be a compromise Ukraine is willing to accept. They'll give up the disputed territory, but Russia acknowledges Ukraine's right to enter into self-defense agreements with other nations. Perhaps adding a caveat regarding restrictions on foreign troops entering Ukraine so that poor wittle Wussia doesn't get scared by the mean Ukrainians.
At least as of now, Ukraine is not willing to agree that Russia should have a boot on Ukraine's throat forever.
Exactly what is Russia "giving up" in that scenario?
Russia and Ukraine already agreed to that in the 1994 Budapest accord. Then Russia broke their word and invaded Ukraine. An agreement with Russia is worth nothing.
Czechoslovakia is the perfect analogy for what Russia is seeking to do to Ukraine. Agree to submit some border regions, then gobble up the whole thing. And Russia’s insistence that 1) Ukraine disarm, and 2) agree not to enter into any alliances of any kind, pretty much guarantees the exact same result.
Well, we absolutely know from how this invasion has transpired that Ukraine was not disarmed before it began. Russia's demands would place Ukraine in a much worse situation than it was before this war.
“At least as of now, Ukraine is not willing to agree that Russia should have a boot on Ukraine’s throat forever. “
They will agree soon.
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