Posted on 03/04/2022 8:52:21 AM PST by blam
This morning we listed some of the countries that are dangerously (and almost exclusively) reliant on Russia and Ukraine for their wheat imports, highlighting Turkey, Egypt, Tunisia and others…
… which are facing an “Arab Spring” style food crisis (and potential uprising) in the coming weeks unless the Ukraine conflict is resolved.
And unfortunately, we can now confidently predict that the coming food crisis will strike every country that is using food fertilizer – which is all – because moments ago, Russian Interfax reported that as part of Moscow’s countersanctions, Russia has recommended fertilizer makers to halt exports, a move which will sent not only fertilizer prices orbitally higher, but all food prices will soon follow.
•*RUSSIA RECOMMENDS FERTILIZER MAKERS TO HALT EXPORTS: IFX
•*RUSSIAN MINISTRY CITES LOGISTICS ISSUES ON FERTILIZERS: IFX
Worse still, natural gas is required in the manufacturing process for most nitrogen/fertilizer products and so the recent surge in European NatGas prices to record highs will only exacerbate the cost of fertilizer from any halt from Russia…
And with wheat prices already at all time highs…
… all hell is about to break loose not only among food producers, but soon, in your local grocery store once US consumers realize that food prices are about to double, triple and x-ple more.
These Countries Face Unprecedented Hunger Crises Due To The Ukraine War (Turkey, Egypt & Kenya)
Klaus must be very pleased.
Biden is getting what he wants here isn’t he.
Can you hear the rockets coming, Fernando? They were there for you and me...
The ‘other shoe’ dropping... all four horsemen riding now...
It's time for all real Americans to get behind Demented Joe and his Ho!
We just need a convoy of semi’s to get to DC and load up on all the manure that is spread there continuously and distribute to our fields. Mine could use some for sure.
At my local pump (Marysville, CA) it went from $4.11 to $4.39 in five days.
The big winner of all of this seems to be Justin Trudeau:
Oil, potash, and wheat. Those are Canada’s main exports. With Russia removed as a competitor the Canadians will reap windfall profits.
Time to annex Canada.
This is the quiet stuff that reveals how meaningless measurements involving pieces of paper with ink printed on it are. Running in circles declaring Russia’s GDP is small compared to the US . . .that’s a measurement based on inked pieces of paper.
You can create those by increasing government spending. The G parameter in the GDP equation is additive. Government can spend its way to GDP, regardless of it being borrowed or not.
In contrast, Russia’s GDP is based on joules — and fertilizer tons. Joules are a measurement of energy. They do not change their value per barrel as a consequence of the mood on NYMEX. Fertilizer tons weigh 2000 lbs no matter what counterparties have as their mood that day.
Russia’s debt is 20% of these GDP measures. The US, well over 100%. GDP is too often measured as a growth %. But when you look at the raw numbers that were used to compute that %, you discover how often government spending of an amount raised the GDP number LESS than the spending.
Remember how to measure things when you glibly lean back and imagine the US to be exceptional and superior. Getting your numbers from the Fed, or exported bytes of entertainment, differs a GREAT DEAL from getting your numbers from joules and tons of material vital to growing food.
This is the quiet stuff that reveals how meaningless measurements involving pieces of paper with ink printed on it are. Running in circles declaring Russia’s GDP is small compared to the US . . .that’s a measurement based on inked pieces of paper.
You can create those by increasing government spending. The G parameter in the GDP equation is additive. Government can spend its way to GDP, regardless of it being borrowed or not.
In contrast, Russia’s GDP is based on joules — and fertilizer tons. Joules are a measurement of energy. They do not change their value per barrel as a consequence of the mood on NYMEX. Fertilizer tons weigh 2000 lbs no matter what counterparties have as their mood that day.
Russia’s debt is 20% of these GDP measures. The US, well over 100%. GDP is too often measured as a growth %. But when you look at the raw numbers that were used to compute that %, you discover how often government spending of an amount raised the GDP number LESS than the spending.
Remember how to measure things when you glibly lean back and imagine the US to be exceptional and superior. Getting your numbers from the Fed, or exported bytes of entertainment, differs a GREAT DEAL from getting your numbers from joules and tons of material vital to growing food.
Whoa. In another week, Biden & his flacks will have most of America blaming Russia for inflation. That’s the game plan.
I doubt that there’s any farming going on in the Ukraine about now.
40 cents at some locations near us in a day.
We don’t need to buy fertilizer! We’ve got the whole “democRAT” Party. We get all the fertilizer we need from them and their Hollowoodies.
Putin is a putz. Biden, too.
On the plus side they all have a better chance of saying it is organic.
Frankly I’m not so sure about pestilence, unless you count government using coronavirus to hurt people.
How long can Russia’s fertilizer producers survive if they do this? Are they willing to commit financial suicide because Pooty-poot says so?
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