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I would not rule it out. For Russia, this is on a level with our Cuban missile crisis. Allow me to explain.
You might not agree with an adversary (Russia in this case), but to dismiss and ignore their legitimate security concerns is dangerously stupid. It is always wise to look at a war or a potential war from the other side’s perspective, if only to improve the effectiveness of your own efforts.
Russia is not Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya or Serbia, easy (and safe) for America and NATO to slap around. Russia has the most powerful nuclear force on the planet. Miscalculation over Ukraine can rapidly escalate into full-blown war and a nuclear exchange. For Russia, Ukraine joining NATO is a redline worth going to war over. We ignore this at our own peril.
In 1962, we already had medium-range nuclear-armed ballistic missiles in Turkey. When the USSR obtained a client state (Cuba) 100 miles from Florida, they thought it would be fair turnabout to also have their own MRBMs in range of America. (ICBMs were not yet available.) When the missiles were discovered in Cuba, the result was that America was outraged, rightly, and we very nearly had a nuclear exchange.
It was not “JFK backed down Khrushchev!” as American media portrayed it. Diplomats and generals on both sides later wrote that we came within a hair-breadth of a full nuclear exchange. In the deal that was worked out, we also (quietly) removed our MRBMs from Turkey. Part of the agreement was that the USSR would not crow about how they forced us to move our missiles out of Turkey.
Today Russia looks at Ukraine, and they see it as the 1942 invasion route of the Nazis, which came very close to cutting off their Caspian oil, which would have caused the rapid collapse and defeat of the USSR. The idea of NATO forces prepositioned across Ukraine, directly on the Russian border, armed with tanks and MRBMs, is a redline they have repeatedly said they could not tolerate.
The Russians think: at least the Germans had to fight their way to Ukraine and and then across it. How much worse to have NATO forces already in Ukraine, poised in striking range with missiles and tanks, ready to nuke Moscow in minutes, and occupy or destroy the Caspian oil fields in days?
We teased Ukraine into believing that if they were compliant with American, EU and NATO desires, they’d eventually join both groups. Instead, Russia was provoked into removing the possibility of NATO forces ever being positioned in Ukraine by their own invasion. This was all entirely foreseeable.
Imagine Khrushchev saying to JFK: “Our Cuban allies requested these armaments to protect them from continued Yankee aggression. So screw you, our missiles will stay in Cuba.” It would have meant nuclear war. This is how dire the Russians consider even the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO as a full partner.
We ignore their perspective at our own peril.
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Good post.
Your post is a very reasonable analysis. It is sad that so many who are supposedly on our side turn into hysterical nancy boys the minute someone tries to understand the other side. In war, you must know know the enemy as much as yourself. I would expect any Russian leader to act in the same manner. Unfortunately, we are led by the kind of evil hubris that will only serve to get millions killed.
You are right on Travis. The capture of Chernobyl and the biowarfare labs should be raising lots of red flags. What this means should be of concern to everyone especially after what just happened in Afghanistan.
He Bigly, over here you dumb oaf. Efforts to understand what is going on in Putin’s head are breaking out all across the FR front. You are gonna need a lot more ammo.
Short answer: no.
How would that help his situation?
To your point, Putin may in fact be feeling his own mortality at nearly 70 years old.
The current life expectancy for Russia in 2022 is 72.84 years. Not a lot of time left for him.
Agree on every point.
The Pontic Caspian Steppe has been a highway for invading armies for as long as history has been recorded. Those invasions ended only when Rissia expanded to the East. This acheivement has informed the core character of modern Russian leadership. Russians believe they need strong leadership to survive.
Invasions from the western powers began soon after Peter the Great opened a window to the West - Charles XXII of Sweden, Napoleon, the Allies in WWI, aid to the White Russians and Germany in WWII. Russia sees NATO with Article 5 in Ukraine as a prelude to invasion that will arise out of the kind of entangling alliances that escalated a Serbian conflict into a World War.
Eastern Ukraine and the areas along the Black Sea to Transnistria (Novorossiya) has been part of Russia since Catherine the Great 1764. Russia quite rationally sees invasion of its traditional territory against the backdrop of our State Department policy that seeks to isolate and push back its borders.
Give it up. Russia was not threatened except in Putin’s paranoia.
Not only that, but because the US is being run by mean little eighth graders and one senile old man, our government arranged for Vlad to find out via China that Ukraine was about to join NATO and his change to grab eastern Ukraine was about to slip away. Isn't this big fun now?
Other cultures, societies, and governments think differently. Liberals don't get it when it comes to diplomacy because of their own ideology.
I hear "China wont invade Taiwan because we do too much business with them" from libs and there is no indication that is going to be the case.
Fools like Thomas Freidman says that countries that have McDonalds do not engage in armed conflict. Hmmmm...
Or more along the lines of Putin’s sentiments toward annexing Ukraine and reestablishing the USSR.
All the “justification” in the world is insufficient for invading a sovereign country that posed NO threat to them.
Thanks for the post. Here are my thoughts and I’ve not seen discussed yet I believe plausible. Putin has the evidence that Biden stole the election and has threatened to expose him if he intervenes. Biden has agreed to stay out of the way as long as Putin makes sure to eliminate the evidence of corruption of his Ukrainian kickbacks and payoffs after he takes the country and in return, he’ll keep buying Russian oil.
As I said, I’ve not seen any of these plausible events discussed, much like the effect of the Holodomor on Ukrainian resolve in this war hasn’t been mentioned anywhere.
Freegards
One glaring omission from your exposition is that, unlike Cuba, Ukraine did not invite Russia and its military to enter their country. Uncertain if that changes the calculus of red lines and use of tactical nukes.
finally someone with some sense here. russia had to act now or accept a much worse strategic situation down the road when nato bases were in Ukraine. nothing about western posture made them think such a situation would not be eventually used against him or more likely his successor.
I do think russia was intentionally boxed into a choice set where their best choice was military action now. they repeatedly asked, publicly in the later cases, for security consultations with ukraine in nato as a top level topic, and were apparently rebuffed (US replies were not public).
While our talking head politicians overall do not seem too bright, their handlers must know exactly what they are doing. I worry that this is intended to become a much larger and nastier conflict.
the central bank sanctions almost certainly will have unintended(?) consequences, and not good ones for the US, even if we manage to avoid nuclear exchanges.
I also think critical thinking skills have been completely lost over 2 years of pandemic right-thinking. this forum is full of people who basically scream at anyone saying anything other than “ukraine good, russia baaaaaad.”
I absolutely agree.
First, because a smart person or nation must always consider the points of view of its enemies or adversaries, even while he or it disagrees with them. Only a fool ignores what another person is thinking.
Second, we have brought this war upon ourselves, to some extent. The simple fact is that we lied to the Russians. When the Soviet Union broke up and it lost its empire, we wanted Germany to be reunified. In return for the Russians allowing that, we promised not to expand NATO to the east. The Russians held up their end of the bargain. We, on the other hand, have utterly ignored ours, relentlessly expanding NATO as Far East as possible and as quickly as possible. It is not just that we lied, it is the history behind why the Russians wanted to prevent NATO from expanding to the east. The simple fact is that twice in the last century they have been invaded from the West by a technologically superior enemy. In the centuries beforehand there were also several invasions from the technologically superior West. The only reason that the Russians were able to win those wars was because of its large population, very large land area, the weather, and the determination of its people to resist an invader. Those victories came at enormous cost to the Russian people. Yet, we kept expanding NATO to the east, not caring what we had promised nor why the Russians feared technologically superior western armies right on their border. We have been utter fools, and bear not a little of the responsibility for what has happened.
That all being said, I condemn Putin for what he has done. This could easily have been settled through negotiations. Putin could have made his case in a very public way to the entire western world. He’s a very smart guy, and he and his advisers could have spun a speech or several of them which would have made the United States and NATO look like a bunch of lying sons of bitches and ginned up a lot of sympathy for his point of view. There was no compelling reason to invade at this time, and the apparent lack of concern regarding civilian casualties speaks to who Vladimir Putin is. He, of course, bears more responsibility for this than we do, because he actually made the decision to invade…but we are not blameless.
Thank you for a thoughtful analysis.
Many people still believe that “JFK backed down Khrushchev!”.
NATO is a weak threat, no one has paid their full dues, they cannot fight, and Germany and half of Europe is putting their economic existence in Putins hands. It is only a threat to Putin if he wanted to invade those border nations. Trump called all this hypocrisy out.
Even if Ukraine was a NATO country, it was never going to invade Russia.
The US made NATO fight, but is the US going to invade nuclear Russia?
It could be Putins paranoia and that is bad enough especially if nukes are put there... but a NATO imperialist threat of a nuclear armed Russia isn’t happening.