Posted on 06/10/2021 7:09:16 AM PDT by blam
With the world’s eyes having moved on from China’s rip-roaring PPI (and post-data decision to unleash price controls), this morning’s CPI print has been heralded as the arbiter of “is it transitory or not” with some (BofA) even suggesting we are nearing a period of “transitory hyperinflation.” The answer for now is – inflation’s still accelerating as headline CPI soared 5.0% YoY (hotter than the +4.7% expected). That is the highest level of inflatuion since Aug 2008.
But it is core CPI that is the huge outlier, soaring 3.8% YoY – the hottest level of inflation since 1992…
Goods prices are up 6.5% YoY – the highest since 1982 – and services prices are also accelerating significantly.
Under the hood, many of the same indexes continued to increase, including used cars and trucks, household furnishings and operations, new vehicles, airline fares, and apparel. The index for medical care fell slightly, one of the few major component indexes to decline in May
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The household furnishings and operations index increased 1.3 percent in May, its largest monthly increase since January 1976.
The index for used cars and trucks continued to rise sharply, increasing 7.3 percent in May. This increase accounted for about one-third of the seasonally adjusted all items increase.
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The index for new vehicles rose 1.6 percent in May, its largest 1-month increase since October 2009. The index for airline fares continued to increase, rising 7.0 percent in May after increasing 10.2 percent the prior month. The apparel index also rose in May, increasing 1.2 percent.
The index for car and truck rentals continued to rise, increasing 12.1 percent after rising 16.2 percent the prior month (and more than doubled over the past 12 months, rising 109.8 percent).
Notably – amid all the headlines of soaring food prices and supply chains – the BLS believes food price inflation is slowing…
Finally, rent/shelter inflation remains subdued
• MoM: The shelter index rose 0.3 percent in May. The index for rent rose 0.2 percent and the index for owners’ equivalent rent increased 0.3 percent
• YoY: The shelter index increased 2.2 percent over the last 12 months.
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So, Transitory or not?
One of my vendors supplies items from Bali.
Container shipping costs went from 2200 in ‘19 to 11,000 last month.
There are over 200 ships mothballed from Covid which are still mothballed.
“Transitory” in that a year from now the numbers won’t compare to 12 months ago when the nation was locked down.
Not transitory in that (IMHO) 12 months from now we’ll see inflation numbers compared to today at a level far higher than the 2% the Fed wants.
The Monthly Rate from January to May has been an average of about 0.7%per month.
Multiply by 12 months.
Inflation is really kicking along above 8%.
The 12 month lookback convention includes June through December 2020, when inflation was essentially 0% under Trump. Ignore that. Right now, there is no reason to believe we are not in a full 8%+ inflation world until policy changes.
That's because the same behind the scenes people are in charge.
We went from a vibrant, healthy, oil producing economy to a disaster in six months.
These leftist/globalists are a disaster. Good grief!
“We went from a vibrant, healthy, oil producing economy to a disaster in six months.”
Leftwing communists & racists call that a huge success...
...and Marxist Wall St seems to love it.
Post #4
blam :" Inflation Nation: Consumer Prices Jump 5%, Fastest Pace Since 2008 "
No further comment needed. (tik)
Please refer to posted comments...
Gas here 3.19/gal
Trump 1.99
Went to Costco today. Everything up. A staffer told me to hold on b/c in the coming weeks they are going up again, but still cheaper at the local grocery store.
> These leftist/globalists are a disaster. Good grief! <
We haven’t seen anything yet. Just wait until they ramp up the printing presses to fight non-existent “climate change”.
>>We haven’t seen anything yet. Just wait until they ramp up the printing presses to fight non-existent “climate change”.<<
I go out to the debt clock every so often, I find it interesting to analyze the numbers. What I’m seeing is manipulation in the debt clock numbers.
The U.S. Debt clock real time still shows $28+ Trillion national debt for months now despite all the omnibus bills, stimulus checks and leftist spending. I noticed the other day that the total national debt was $28,486,+...today shows $28,389+. Actually went down in a matter of days all the while ticking up as you watch. lol What a sham!
Another lil side note. Several months ago the figure for “unfunded liabilities clocked in at $163+ Trillion. A staggering figure for promises made for future SS, medicare/medicaid yet not funded.
It is now showing $149.2 Trillion. Hmmm! Quite interesting. Unfunded liabilities magically went down $14 Trillion. lol
If this site is truly the U.S. Debt clock “real time”, the feds are manipulating the numbers.
https://usdebtclock.org/
I would anticipate that in the coming weeks prices will also be going up at the local grocery store.
Mostly modest price increases no doubt. I can see the headlines now.
Mostly modest, and transitory.
Buy that wheelbarrow today, before prices go through the roof.
My 37 year old son, (wife & 3 kids), just got a long sought promotion at work and a modest raise. I guess that will be wiped out in a matter of months.
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