Posted on 05/10/2021 3:55:51 AM PDT by Kaslin
There’s not a lot of mystery here. At this point, every indication is that former President Donald Trump will announce his third presidential bid as soon as it makes sense from a campaign finance perspective to do so. When this happens, like it or not, most political analysts think he will win the 2024 GOP nomination similarly to how he won in 2016, not by having a majority from the get-go, but by consistently maintaining a larger and more dedicated base than his opponents.
Sure, some current polling indicates Trump’s support among the GOP dropping as increasingly more would like to see “someone other than Trump” be the nominee, but that won’t matter in a Republican primary. What WILL matter is that 30 percent - or whatever makes up Trump’s core GOP base come election time - is always going to be more than the 10-15 percent that could be garnered by any one of the 10-15 other possible candidates, and that’ll be more than enough to carry him across the finish line. In other words, get ready for another Donald J. Trump GOP nomination, a general election season of massive campaign rallies full of excitement and promise... followed by another devastating general election loss.
Now, even if you haven’t stopped reading in disgust at this point, many of you will probably still be angry with me, maybe even enough to call me a - gasp - *NeverTrumper* in the comments below. Fine, whatever. You’d be wrong about that though, just as you’d be wrong to think Donald Trump has a snowball’s chance in hell of defeating Weekend at Bernie’s, President Momala, or whatever other piece of Marxist/Leninist garbage the left trots out in 2024. I was among the staunchest anti-NeverTrumper conservative columnists writing in 2015 and 2016, and when Trump wins the nomination in 2024 I’ll support him, vote for him, and pray hard that he wins - knowing full well that nothing short of a divine miracle far surpassing 2016 would garner a victory.
Are miracles possible? Sure, but they’re also exceedingly rare. Whatever happened in 2020, I think we can all agree that a miracle for conservatives wasn’t among them. What did happen, as you’ll recall, was a combination of individual voter fraud abetted by massive unsolicited mail-in balloting and officials driven to count them all with few if any checks or questions (to what extent, we’ll never know) AND the then-president of the United States driving record turnout ON BOTH SIDES, all resulting in an overwhelmingly damaging general election defeat.
Then, to make matters worse, instead of acting like a statesman and living to fight another day, like Nixon did in 1960, Donald Trump instead acted like a petulant child in an insane, two-month saga that ended with the January 6 Capitol riot, an unforced error and a dream-scenario for leftists looking for some false equivalence to ignore what they sanctioned all summer and paint conservatives as the ‘real insurrectionists.’ No, it wasn’t an insurrection, and yes, it’s been vastly overrated and overplayed by the left, but it also sealed off any chance of Trump avenging his loss in the minds of more than enough Americans to ensure the former president never sniffs elected office again.
Want to relive January 6 on your TV screen every single day of a campaign season four years later? I’m telling you, they will beat us with that dead horse until every suburban soccer mom in the country begs for mercy and posts a BLM banner on their social media profiles on the off chance that someone might think they are a dreaded ‘Trump insurrectionist.’ In truth, Democratic strategists would like nothing better than for Trump to run again. They are hoping for it, begging for it, and if they prayed, they’d be praying for it.
Hey, don’t shoot the messenger. I don’t like any of the above any more than you do, but what we’d like doesn’t change reality. You can dispute the favorability polls all you want, but NONE of them are good. Face it, short of maybe the collapse of the dollar and a complete Mad Max-style apocalyptic breakdown of the country under Biden/Harris, this political reality isn’t likely to change. (God forbid, it COULD happen, I suppose, considering the breakneck pace at which they’re screwing things up so far - but it would have to be REALLY bad to make a difference, bad enough that none of us would want it to happen.)
Acknowledging all this isn’t being a NeverTrumper. It’s being a realist. Fairly or unfairly, Donald Trump would bring far more negatives than positives to a 2024 presidential campaign. Will he recognize this and bow out in favor of a candidate with fewer negatives, perhaps playing the much more apropos role of kingmaker? Probably not, but I hope he does.
What many of us liked about Trump, after all, wasn’t so much the man himself, but the fact that despite his flaws he tried to keep his campaign promises and actually governed as a conservative. Instead of the former president marching to certain defeat and splitting the party in the process, causing a whole other wave of disaffected voters to abandon national elections altogether, imagine an energized Donald Trump on the campaign trail uniting conservatives and pitching for someone like Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
Donald Trump won, and was by and large a successful president, because of his policies. In order to win in 2024, we not only need a candidate who believes in and will implement the policies brought forth so successfully by the former president, but also someone who can win a general election. Who might that be? So far, it’s looking like DeSantis fits the bill on all counts, but a lot can happen in two years.
Regardless, I’d have zero problem being wrong here, but the way I see it, Republicans have absolutely no chance at winning the presidency back in 2024 unless their nominee is someone not named Donald Trump. Which, in many ways, leaves the future of America up to the decision of one man. For the good of the country, the former president should do the right thing and pass the torch.
I don’t think this needs a barf alert.
DeSantis.
Yep, 78 is too old. In the meantime though he should be kicking ass and taking names of RINOs.
But there won't be. The reality is the Dems have gotten away with last year's cheating particularly in same day states like Wisconsin, large dem-run cities like Philly and of course the feckless RINOs (executive branch) who run Georgia ignoring the out-of-state voters and other irregularities. And it will be worse next time.
Trump complained a lot but nothing was done. It was not clear whether attorneys like Powell were working for him or not. The serious claims were diluted by frivolous claims about "statistical impossibilities". The Navarro report had great material for legal claims diluted down with obvious dreck.
We need to be smarter. Yeah, Biden got 96% in a late night vote dump in Michigan. Statiscially impossible? No, absolutely possible. If Obama can get 100% votes in 59 Philly districts and 99% of the vote in 100 Cleveland districts without late night counting, then certainly Biden can get 96%. It's fraud, but if we don't identify the correct causes we'll never stop it.
As an example in the other direction, Rick Scott curtailed the fraud in FL which BIden was supposed to win according to the fake polls.
>>What WILL matter is that 30 percent - or whatever makes up Trump’s core GOP base come election time - is always going to be more than the 10-15 percent that could be garnered by any one of the 10-15 other possible candidates, and that’ll be more than enough to carry him across the finish line. In other words, get ready for another Donald J. Trump GOP nomination, a general election season of massive campaign rallies full of excitement and promise... followed by another devastating general election loss.
JEB! Romney, et al vs Trump in the debates/primary don’t intend to bring the Republican Party forward they seek to advance the Uniparty agenda.
And Donald Trump did not have a “devastating general election loss”. He got more votes than any candidate ever before in history. Even if the author believes that Biden got even more legitimate votes than that, Donald Trump still managed more votes than were received in 2016 (or any previous election) AND more votes than any sitting president has ever received.
>>Acknowledging all this isn’t being a NeverTrumper. It’s being a realist. Fairly or unfairly, Donald Trump would bring far more negatives than positives to a 2024 presidential campaign. Will he recognize this and bow out in favor of a candidate with fewer negatives, perhaps playing the much more apropos role of kingmaker?
The writer acknowledges that January 6th was NOT an insurrection and yet believes that the media (which is blocking anything Donald Trump says even when posted by other people on Twitter and Youtube) would permit DJT to be “kingmaker” and endorse any chosen Republican candidate? That would be used to taint and smear that candidate.
>>Donald Trump won, and was by and large a successful president, because of his policies. In order to win in 2024, we not only need a candidate who believes in and will implement the policies brought forth so successfully by the former president, but also someone who can win a general election.
Donald Trump was successful because he didn’t back down or apologize when the media constantly attacked him and his staff. He also circumvented the media filter by tweeting his own tweets.
Joseph Stolen limits questions at press conferences, does not field questions from hostile reporters, and does not send his own tweets.
I almost believe PDJT has more power to make change working behind the scenes with various candidates than he does in the Oval Office. We learned the hard way that the President has way less power than we had believed. He’s at the mercy of so many other powerful people, most of whom are nefarious and don’t have America’s best interests as priorities.
Last time i saw him give a speech, I was less impressed.
Maybe he had a bad night.
The RATS are scared stiff over the return of DJT. Now they give pubbies advice. It would be a dream come true to see the Trumpster return with his past experience clean house, and take retribution against the corruption.
Let’s see what DJT Jr. has to offer beyond his name. I’ve honestly yet to see any reason to take him seriously as a credible candidate for political office, having never seen him as anything more than a TV character up to this point.
exactly, not the hill i choose to die on ..
Does he think Hillary is President?
I don't think he was ever really a good speech maker. However, he did not speak in "political speak" which made him connect with people better, and he sounded sincere while doing it.
Morefield is a p****.
L
Nothing barf-worthy here, and lot of Wake Up And Smell The Coffee realism.
Rational people are the minority of posters here. Mostly it’s the “barf” people, who think Trump is the end-all be-all and won’t let it go. Even when he’s clearly as old as Biden.
“78 is too old”
You make the VERY FOOLISH MISTAKE of using RAW AGE versus properly using BIOLOGICAL AGE.
Some at 60 are age impaired than some at 80.
Some at 60 should have the undertaker on speed dial where some at 80 are vibrant and full of life.
And my 37 goes for you too.
Historically, it looks like no one cares. The abuses stack up, and people tend to ‘let it go’. Be that as it may, it never lasts forever that way. No, once legitimate voting is gone it only ends one way. Should the ‘if’ of organized fraud be demonstrated, the nation is on a collision path with a bloodbath. Millions will die, millions more will suffer, the environment will be damaged, innocent people will die and suffer.
Should there have been organized voter fraud, the entire nation will suffer. The people who organized and perpetuated the event will have immeasurable blood and suffering on their hands. You will not know when. You will not know the precipitating event. You will know when it’s to late for millions.
Foolish Mistake?
I disagree.
No one gets smarter, healthier, or more energetic after age 78.
The very best you can hope for after age 78 is that your physical and mental decline is slower than average.
Sorry for bringing bad news.
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