Posted on 02/10/2021 4:07:31 PM PST by blam
I’ve said the U.S. is caught in a debt death trap. Monetary policy won’t get us out because the velocity of money, the rate at which money changes hands, is dropping.
Printing more money alone will not change that.
Fiscal policy won’t work either because of high debt ratios. At current debt-to-GDP ratios, each additional dollar spent yields less than a dollar of growth. But because it must be borrowed, it does add a dollar to the debt. Debt becomes an actual drag on growth.
The ratio gets higher, and the situation grows more desperate. The economy barely grows at all while the debt mounts. You basically become Japan.
The national debt is $27.8 trillion. A $27.8 trillion debt would not be an issue if we had a $50 trillion economy.
But we don’t have a $50 trillion economy. We have about a $21 trillion economy, which means our debt is bigger than our economy.
The debt-to-GDP ratio is about 130%. Before the pandemic, it was about 105% (the policy response to the pandemic caused the spike).
Already in the Danger Zone
But even a ratio of 105% is in the danger zone.
Economists Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart carried out a long historical survey going back 800 years, looking at individual countries, or empires in some cases, that have gone broke or defaulted on their debt.
They put the danger zone at a debt-to-GDP ratio of 90%. Once it reaches 90%, debt becomes a drag on growth.
Meanwhile, we’re looking at deficits of $1 trillion or more, long after the pandemic subsides.
In basic terms, the United States is going broke. We’re heading for a sovereign debt crisis.
I don’t say that for effect. I’m not looking to scare people or to make a splash.
(snip)
(Excerpt) Read more at dailyreckoning.com ...
As an aside, the last time the Federal budget was balanced (the National Debt did not increase over the course of a fiscal year) was during the Eisenhower administration.
Buy lead & brass; gold is worthless crap to throw against southern invaders.
Take some gold you to local 7/11, and try to buy anything. You’re starving. They have no scales to measure/convert diddly-squat.
“They have no scales.....” What, you think we’re all Parker Schnabel or Tony Beets, and have gold in a glass jar? It does come in Govt. bullion in different weights.
That was an excellent book!
“You see, in this world there’s two kinds of people, my friend: Those with loaded guns and those who dig.”
FDR sold off our gold supply to pay for his inflationary socialistic programs.
In Stalingrad after they got done eating eat other ... gold and silver were the currency... I know refugee families from 7 different countries.. who survived because they had metal
The Fed doesn't buy gold or maintain the U.S. gold reserves. That's the Treasury Department.
Yes, I believe that this is the case with Biden's Executive Orders; thusfar, his actions go beyond typical 'Trump Derangement Syndrome' (TDS).
Economically, the Dims are going above and beyond financial logic; it is as though they have an intentional, financial suicidal death wish.
They eliminate 11,000 high paying jobs on pipelines, telling the unemployed to secure currently non-existant solar jobs, or to 'learn how to code', as they have done before.
The Dim leadership(?) have the all the economic experience of a barista with an economics degree with no practical experience;
it's all theoretical mired in the world of academia.
It makes about the same common sense as leadership(?)closing down the national economy over a virus, while encouraging immigration of virus infected persons on one hand,
yet saying, on the other hand that there will be an extension of the quarantine, or usage of masks, as long as the numbers of infected remain high.
It is the medically untested immigrants who are bringing the virus, or its mutations, who are re-infecting areas and overwhelming the hospital systems. (Totally illogical !)
“Take some gold you to local 7/11, and try to buy anything. You’re starving.”
If you have some gold, and think its going to be useful during hard times, you are being uninformed. But take the collapses in Argentina, Zimbabwe, and the ongoing one in Venezuela. If you had a rational store of gold, you can recreate your life after the collapse when the new currency arrives. The standard advice is around 10% of your savings.
And last by not least, if hyper inflation hits, avoid the 7/11 anyway. But if you have a gold piece and for some reason want to cash it in, head down to your local Vietnamese, Thai, or Indian (red dot) owned business. They will be buying.
“If it’s value goes up to $5,000 an ounce, and you sell it, but hyperinflation catches up in a few days,”
Only a simpleton would sell their gold WHILE hyperinflation is happening. You wait till it’s over and then buy back into the “new” currency, keeping your position in life relatively close to what it was before the crash.
Never sell it DURING hyperinflation to merely buy commodities you should have already had stored.
And I’ll tell you what. If 7-11 turns you down, you just freemail me and I’ll take your worthless gold and send you some rice, beans, wheat, or whatever.
As a private bank they can buy or sell anything they please. The Fed could indeed announce they will pay 4950 an ounce, and will sell at 5050.
They could announce they will buy 1965 mustangs at 20,000 bucks if they pleased.
The individual Fed banks are quasi-private entities. True they are owned by the member banks of the Federal Reserve district but they are answerable to the Board of Governors who decide the kind of business the banks can engage in. Engaging in wholesale purchase of gold would have to be approved, and I doubt it would be.
They are completely private. The Federal reserve banks are literally as “federal” as Federal Express.
Then why do the Federal Reserve banks turn all their profits over to the federal government, roughly $55 billion in 2019 alone?
Let’s see: Let’s say there’s $33 trillion in retirement funds(401k/IRA’s). Divide it by 330 million Americans and you get $300k per man, woman, and child. Divy it up and start over.
Solution 2) Take $27 million of it and pay off the debt. Start over and eliminate ALL government assistance. 3-6 billion would be left to give to everyone. That should be about $30-40k per person.
Do what Spain did to the Moozlems and the Jooz in 1492. Problem solved.
Seems like a sound idea, assuming there’s $33 trillion worth of 401Ks and IRA’s
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