Posted on 01/30/2021 5:23:29 PM PST by Peter ODonnell
You probably heard that a snowstorm is approaching the major cities of the northeastern U.S. and the mid-Atlantic states.
Some forecasting models have outcomes as high as 24-36 inches of snow for some areas. Most at risk appears to be eastern PA, NJ, and MD. NYC and LI could also get hit with 18-24 inch amounts.
So far it looks a bit less extreme for most of New England, with forecast models saying 6-12 inches for most areas. That is also the case for western PA, central NY state, and some parts of the Midwest where the storm has already started.
Low pressure moving through Missouri at present time will track into Kentucky by Sunday. At that time, a coastal low will form off North Carolina, capture most of the energy of the inland storm, and produce heavy snowfall near the I-95 corridor. Strong east winds will develop near the coast, and inland the snow may blow around at times with near-blizzard conditions.
If you've heard a forecast for 6-12 inches, that may in fact verify but be aware that there are significant chances of a much heavier total snowfall especially around Baltimore to Philadelphia to NYC.
This thread can now be used for actual storm observations as we go forward. The east coast snowfall will begin Sunday afternoon. It will start soon in Ohio and w PA.
Temperatures with the snowfall are around 28-30 F, and a mixing zone is likely in parts of Delaware, southeast MD and southeast VA (sleet, ice etc). Heavy rain is the most likely outcome for Norfolk VA and that region. But the storm could transition to wet snow near the final portions on Tuesday.
Would advise some to stock up today before it gets messy as this may be a long-duration storm with a slow recovery period Tues-Wed. Could be Thursday before you'd want to go out again once the storm begins.
It’s no longer expected to skim along the coast
Inland snow. Direct hit in Hartford County, Tolland, maybe Litchfield
Digging out on Tuesday
Maybe DC will be snowed in for a few weeks.
Coastal New England has been notoriously difficult to forecast, much due to that large pond to the East, and in April-May some real dynamics can sometimes be seen. You'll are looking at about up to 20''.
https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/timeline-track-the-3-day-winter-storm-approaching-new-england/2289478/
We’re looking at not quite a foot. My son, closer to the coast, is looking at a foot and a half.
In ‘91 I worked in DC, Anacostia in fact. A big storm rolled in and I made a run for it. The Beltway was guaranteed to be a nightmare so I bailed onto the road through Rock Creek Park. Nobody was there. Nice fresh snow and decent traction the whole way, then surface streets through neighborhoods back into Monkey County.
Latest guidance indicating heaviest snow e PA, NJ, NYC, LI and parts of s New England. 20-40 inch potential (the 40 in most likely to occur 50-100 miles north of PHL).
Strange. Around Boston the closer to the coast then the less snow. Unless your coast juts out.
It peaks a little bit inland, but I think even with less snowfall, the winds are going to be an issue.
A couple more factors to consider.
Temperature plays a role in snowfall totals, and right on the coast it’s generally warmer.
That would either reduce the snowfall totals by mixing in with rain or icing.
And if the snow is wetter, it’s going to be more dense and compact more. So the actual precipitation totals might be the same but the snowfall amounts will vary because light fluffy snow is going to give more measured inches than heavy wet slop.
Many years ago, I drove the Beach Drive several times a week.
When it was really rainy, it was scary - sometimes ‘fountains’ would spout up from the grass, off-side from the creek; and I once lost my brakes going through a really big puddle...
I’m glad I haven’t had to do that in many years.
I figured out a ton of ways to avoid the major roads, that one was a favorite.
Snow isn’t a issue now, I’m at 7300’ in the New Mexico mountains and a foot or less we just drive through.
My Mom is on the Eastern Shore, so she might get buried by this one, but has plenty of food, and a neighbor with a tractor with a blade.
The Shore will probably just get rain out of this.
Indeed, and harder to shovel, but quicker to melt. Later this week.
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And they are reducing the estimates near the coast.
We haven’t had this much snow in Chi in at least 3 years.
How much is ‘this much’, so far?
I’m terrible with measurements, a lot, this article says as much as 9 inches in some places. Thank God it finally stopped, it fell for over 24 hours straight.
If the snow was blow, it would be worth: https://youtu.be/cf7uJDhVZIE
The last thing we need is snow in the Windy City.
It’s miserable enough there
Meteorologists can explain very well—what happened after it happens.
As of 11 a.m. a shift to the west. This is now on Front Page News 
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