Posted on 12/31/2020 10:14:25 AM PST by Kaslin
For fighting COVID-19, one size does not fit all, and we must recognize that our state leaders face very different situations.
The coronavirus epidemic is surging and taking with it the economy, our ability to gather with friends and family, and our hopes for the future. We need to get it over with. But in the midst of the explosion in new cases, some states are experiencing declines in the number of new cases while other states are witnessing increases.
Changes in the rate of infections have been attributed to political affiliation, defiant lifestyles, and irresponsible leadership. But there may be a simpler answer. Some states may be running out of people who have not already been infected.
Experts estimate that at least two-thirds of the population need to have neutralizing antibodies in order to reach herd immunity. Two-thirds of the 325 million people in the United States is about 218 million people. You can get antibodies that neutralize the virus in one of two ways: taking an effective vaccine, which is only being starting to be administered, or having been infected with the coronavirus that causes COVID-19.
About 19 million people in the U.S. have had confirmed cases of COVID-19. But confirmed cases may be the tip of the iceberg. Although estimates vary, the Centers for Disease Control believes that about eight people have been infected for each one person with a documented case. If we multiply the 19 million known cases by 8, it is possible that about 152 million people are already immune. Yet the proportion of people who have been infected and the rate of new cases varies significantly by state.
Using publicly available data sources, I estimated the number of people who might have immunity in each state. The simple calculation multiplies the number of known cases in each state by 8. Then, I divided the number of expected immune people by the state population. The numbers vary dramatically across the country, with North Dakota topping the list at 92 percent in contrast to the least affected state, Vermont, at a mere 7 percent.
A very crude estimate suggests that new cases should begin trending downward when about 60 percent of the population has been infected. My rough estimate showed that five states are likely to have more than 60 percent of their populations previously infected (North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Nebraska) with three others (Utah, Rhode Island, and Wyoming) approaching 60 percent.
In each of these states, the recent trajectory for new cases is declining. States where the seven-day rolling averages are trending upward tend to have a lower rate of previous infections: South Carolina (39 percent), Texas (36 percent), Massachusetts (34 percent), California (32 percent), West Virginia (29 percent), the District of Columbia (28 percent), and New York (17 percent).
We have good reason to believe that a previous infection provides immunity. The two new vaccines are estimated to be about 95 percent effective in preventing infections. However, those who have suffered a previous infection may enjoy greater than 99 percent protection.
True, there have been a few cases of COVID-19 survivors who became reinfected. But reinfection is very rare. There are only 31 documented cases among some 81 million people who have been infected.
In two large vaccine trials, people taking the active vaccine were 95 percent less likely than those getting a placebo to get COVID-19. But those injected with placebo were still 200 times more likely to get COVID-19 in comparison to the rate of reinfection among COVID-19 survivors.
To be clear, I am not advocating that people deliberately get exposed to coronavirus. It is simply too large a gamble. COVID-19 can have devasting consequences, including death. That is why so many people oppose achieving herd immunity through careless life choices.
But unfortunately, many people have already become victims of the coronavirus. If they survived without lasting effects, they are not likely to get a new infection. In the states where the virus has hit hardest, we may be running out of people who are likely to get a new case of COVID-19.
We are a big country with the unified goal of defeating the coronavirus. But we are also a federation with 50 states. One size does not fit all, and we must recognize that our state leaders face very different situations.
It is possible that some states may be approaching herd immunity, even without a vaccine. Others remain highly vulnerable. For now, all states should continue to advocate for prudent behavioral approaches to masking, distancing, and hand washing.
State leaders might use the information on previous infections, perhaps augmented by new surveys on antibody prevalence, when they evaluate how they can best prioritize their limited vaccine supplies. Since previous infection may offer protection equal to or better than a vaccine, it makes no sense to give two doses to someone who has already been infected.
In North Dakota, that would free up at least 180,000 doses — enough to give the first injection to nearly a quarter of the population. Leaders could also be better armed to face equally fraught decisions, such as how to ease restrictions and when to open public schools. With prudent use of resources and data-based planning, a return to normalcy may be in our future.
Well I just recovered from Covid myself so I guess I’m part of the herd.
Congratulations! If you don’t mind sharing, did you just self treat it like normal Flu? Or did you get a prescribed treatment?
I think we all will likely get it eventually, but it doesn’t worry me. The survival rate is incredibly high vs the propaganda.
I have been mulling over how much and what treatment I’d be willing to go through, so curious...
‘a return to normalcy may be in our future.’
no; no return to what we know as normalcy will ever happen...
Looking at it as states is not the most informative, but it is what we have.
Localities, urban regions are the best way but data for these specific, often interstate, areas is harder to come by.
New York City, Connecticut and northeastern New Jersey for example tells more than New York State as a whole.
It was apparent that this tri-state region did reach a herd immunity condition.
And if my aunt had balls she could be my uncle.
There's a lot we still don't know about the virus, but one thing I do know is that The Federalist is not a medical journal.
It’s like any other pandemic—once the weak, vulnerable and elderly are culled off, the survivors will be stronger than they were before. And with a decrease in nonproductive individuals there will be more resources to spread among the strong.
Our immediate families and neighbors have refused to isolate. We have all had colds or flu at some point and not got tested. We are all fine and looking forward to our New Years Eve party. It will not be a masked ball.
‘but one thing I do know is that The Federalist is not a medical journal.’
since the article did not purport to be a medical report, did you expect to find one...?
That's not accurate.
NYS has just under 1 million cases, 1 million x 8 = 8 million. NYS has close to 20 million people.
That that number should be 40%.
If we multiply the 19 million known cases by 8, it is possible that about 152 million people are already immune.
Why 8? Why not 16? Why not 2?
We have the method, antibody tests. They’re not 100% perfect, but very good.
We may be wasting millions of scare vaccine on people who are already immune. Before we vaccinate somebody, they should have an antibody test first. If they got antibodies, they move to a lower priority, and don’t get the vaccine until early summer.
The CDC had 10 months to get ready for scarce vaccine.
The US military had been given responsibility.
Surprise surprise.
Another failure
The Dr who has been helping people for free with whatever you want to donate now has Covid and is “quite ill”
he is a believer in ivermectin, hqc, prednisone, and zpac.,,but yet here he is..quite sick.
Wuhan flu is Russian Roulette. You just dont know how your body will react.
.Meanwhile, someone here just posted a prayer thread for the brother that is about to die from Covid.
I am still willing to try ivermectin. Maybe it helps. Maybe it doesn’t.
Oh right..cheating jo as president will make every virus disappear and ALL WILL come up roses! Bank on it! The virus will disappear to the back pages of the fish wrap! God I despise the mediaSNAKES! 4 years of nauseating stomach revolting buttkissing from the mediapukes!
Well, that’s a relief.
I am skeptical about any conclusions about reinfection.
My default stand would be that getting infected with most things like this generally gives one immunity, unless there is solid proof that it doesn’t. If someone gets tested and they are positive, they quarantine, then go out at some point and end up with a real, clinically significant case that is more than a sore throat or such, then I assume the first test taken was a false positive and the patient DID NOT have COVID until strong proof is given to the contrary.
For people pushing these terrible policies, they are basing a lot on a test that seems to have a VERY high false positive rate.
I heard reports that Elon Musk said he was tested four times for COVID in one day, and he tweeted:
***********************
Elon Musk
@elonmusk
Nov 13
Something extremely bogus is going on. Was tested for covid four times today. Two tests came back negative, two came back positive. Same machine, same test, same nurse. Rapid antigen test from BD.
***********************
But hey, November 13th is so long ago, so much has changed since then.
Reading the tweets following, there were people classifying his tweet as irresponsible. Gee. Highlighting the fact that one person (a famous one) had four tests on the same day, by the same person, on the same machine, had two tests saying he had it, and two tests saying he didn’t, would be something people might want to know when their government is basing draconian measures and putting businesses out of operation based on the cumulative results of these tests.
This seems like you might do just as well flipping a coin.
Who is the doctor?
But hey, November 13th is so long ago, so much has changed since then.
Reading the tweets following, there were people classifying his tweet as irresponsible. Gee. Highlighting the fact that one person (a famous one) had four tests on the same day, by the same person, on the same machine, had two tests saying he had it, and two tests saying he didn’t, would be something people might want to know when their government is basing draconian measures and putting businesses out of operation based on the cumulative results of these tests.
This seems like you might do just as well flipping a coin.
Or as some of our old time trolls and newer ones would say,
“This is old news, November 13th is so long ago, so much has changed since then. So lets move on to the national debt or why Trump lost the election!”
If we multiply the 19 million known cases by 8, it is possible that about 152 million people are already immune.
Why 8? Why not 16? Why not 2?
We have the method, antibody tests. They’re not 100% perfect, but very good.
We may be wasting millions of scare vaccine on people who are already immune. Before we vaccinate somebody, they should have an antibody test first. If they got antibodies, they move to a lower priority, and don’t get the vaccine until early summer.
The CDC had 10 months to get ready for scarce vaccine.
The US military had been given responsibility.
Surprise surprise.
Another failure
Same here. Our Christmas this year was no different from those in the past... no masks in sight.
“Another failure” -— That’s the spirit that built this great nation!
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