Posted on 12/13/2020 6:02:23 AM PST by RomanSoldier19
Southeast Asia will take a major economic hit if shipping is blocked in the South China Sea.
military conflict in the South China Sea would force most shipping from Europe, the Middle East and Africa destined for Asia and the US west coast to be diverted around the south of Australia.
The additional shipping cost would bring reductions in economic activity around the world, but with dire effects on countries at the epicentre, according to a study published by the US National Bureau of Economic Research.
The study shows that the countries most exposed to economic loss from a regional maritime conflict are already spending more on their militaries.
The authors, Kerem Cosar and Benjamin Thomas from the University of Virginia, comment that the findings are ‘consistent with the idea that these perceived threats could set in motion a rapid arms race for the countries involved’.
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalinterest.org ...
Well it’s coming so we’ll find out. The very hour Kamala takes the oath, Chinese troops will land on Taiwan.
War with China is absurd.
The Japanese approach of moving production out of China is the right way of dealing with mainland hotheads.
I strongly suspect that President Harris has an understanding with China. They can take Taiwan in 2021 and we won’t lift a finger. Won’t cost us much of anything (militarily).
Somebody will benefit from war. There is a lot of money to be made in war. Certain key players. They will drive the momentum. Not us.
https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/secret-documents-reveal-liberals-dismay-at-cancelled-china-exercises 
The real question is will China use the opportunity of a gun shy, accomadating Biden Administration to forcefully seize Taiwan if they cannot “persuade” it to peacefully ala Hong Kong to reunite with the communists. Very much doubt there is the political will in the US to go to war with China over Taiwan. Sorry. Those are the current political realities. The people who control Biden will make it clear to Taiwan that there will be no help from the US and will encourage them by all means possible to surrender without a fight.
China cannot afford a war that would kill all their trade & shipping across that area - their whole economy would collapse it would be suicidal regardless of what they would win.
And they are smart so they know that.
Maybe. But China does not think so. We did embolden them. They will make a move we cannot ignore.
The Japanese approach of moving production out of China is the right way of dealing with mainland hotheads.
Haven't you seen all those whining at this forum for years? They will do anything to stop decoupling. This is their handy work. Turning us into Chinese hostage and corrupting U.S. government.
Not so absurd when considering a Chinese blockade of the littoral nations of the Eastern Sea and shutting off of the straits. China’s actions in the area are an implicit threat to do just that.
Biden will not fight for Taiwan. He will be on Red China’s side.
Probably not with Biden and the Democrats in control, especially if they have the Senate. The Democrats would see to it that China does not lose much economically.
Make China pay for it.
Recall, Bill Clinton's treasonous ChinaGate scandal began in late 1996...
From the Sino-Russian Joint Statement of April 23, 1997:
"The two sides [China and Russia] shall, in the spirit of partnership, strive to promote the multipolarization of the world and the establishment of a new international order."
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"Joint war games are a logical outcome of the Sino-Russian Friendship and Cooperation Treaty signed in 2001, and reflect the shared worldview and growing economic ties between the two Eastern Hemisphere giants."
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The exercise started on August 19, 2005, and consisted of combined land, sea, and air elements simulating an intervention in a state besieged by terrorists or political turmoil.
It concluded on August 25, 2005. The force practiced air and naval blockades, an amphibious assault, and occupying a region. Approximately 8,000 Chinese troops took part along with 2,000 Russian troops.
China initially wanted to hold the exercise near the Taiwan Strait, Russia wanted to hold the exercise in Northwestern China near central Asia, but instead settlement was made on the Shandong Peninsula.
There are a number of reasons for the exercise, including:
China is the largest consumer of Russian military technology. The exercise will showcase the Russian weapons including the Tupolev Tu-22M and Tupolev Tu-95 long range bombers.
The two countries are by far the most influential in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the exercise will help to strengthen military ties.
Both countries have stated that the exercise is not directed at any one country, but many believed to be a show of force against the United States and particularly Taiwan.
The United States was not invited to observe the exercise, but did observe using satellite reconnaissance.[citation needed] The stated reason for the exercise is counter-terrorism; however, many analysts agree that the use of such heavy firepower, including long-range bombers, is not necessary. ...”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peace_Mission_2005
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Below, from The Ministry of Defense for the Russian Federation website, Feb 3, 2020...
Military representatives of the member States of the Shanghai cooperation organization (SCO) signed a joint Protocol on the results of the second round of consultations and staff negotiations.
The signed agreement includes issues of comprehensive support of troops and the plan of the exercise stages. Also, during the joint work, the participants visited the Yurginsky training ground, where they conducted reconnaissance of the main stage site.
In addition, the foreign military inspected the place of overcoming the water crossing on the equipment. This will be the first experience for some participating countries.
The consultations were attended by representatives of 8 countries - Russia, India, Kazakhstan, China, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The negotiations were led by the Deputy Chief of Staff of the Central Military District, Major General Rustam Minnekayev.
The anti-terrorist exercise “Peace mission-2020” will be held in August on the territory of the Central Military District at the Yurginsky training ground in the Kemerovo region.
During the exercise, the military personnel will have to work out the tasks of preparing and conducting an anti-terrorist operation by the joint group of troops (forces) of the SCO member States.
Press Service of the Central Military District
https://eng.mil.ru/en/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12280242@egNews
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Reporting from Moscow —
Neither Russia nor China has one inch of coastline on the Mediterranean Sea, making it an unlikely and provocative venue for their first joint naval war games.
The 10 days of maneuvers that got underway Monday will include live-fire exercises in the strategic sea connecting Europe, Africa and the Middle East. The point is lost on no one: A powerful new alliance of eastern giants is flexing its muscles in the very backyard of Western Europe — much as China has done on its own in the Pacific.
The war games follow Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow, where he headlined Victory Day celebrations and spent three days making billion-dollar deals with Russian President Vladimir Putin. ...”
https://www.latimes.com/world/europe/la-fg-china-russia-joint-naval-maneuvers-20150511-story.html
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The drums are already rolling for the upcoming Russian “Vostok” (east) wargames commencing on September 11. With its focal point in the Trans-Baikal region of eastern Siberia adjoining Chinese Manchuria and Mongolia, this is a nationwide Russian military and societal event.
Touted by Russian minister of defense Sergei Shoigu as “unprecedented in scale, both in terms of area of operations and numbers of military command structure, troops, and forces involved,” Russian state press is declaring that up to three hundred thousand troops and one thousand aircraft will be involved, with the majority from the Eastern and Central Military Districts.
This would be even larger than the near-legendary Zapad-81 maneuvers held in the western USSR during the depths of the Cold War. ...”
Another Chamberlain/ Hitler agreement.
“War with China is absurd.”
I think China will be fighting someone within 18 months, though it may not be us. Possibly India, possibly Japan, possibly Taiwan; or some combination thereof.
“The Japanese approach of moving production out of China is the right way of dealing with mainland hotheads.”
I think that is likely to PROVOKE China into an aggressive act, as the Chinese economy — while huge — is also rather fragile; and taking a hit like that could send China over the edge.
Gosh.
The Chinese are going to huff and puff and blow down everyone’s house.
Sheeeeeeyit.
Be a damn shame if those tough guy communists cost those Chinese Generals their mansions and luxury cars.
“Very much doubt there is the political will in the US to go to war with China over Taiwan.”
You are absolutely right.
“Those are the current political realities. The people who control Biden will make it clear to Taiwan that there will be no help from the US and will encourage them by all means possible to surrender without a fight.”
Again, you are absolutely right.
This is why the Silk Road initiative was put in place. China knows that the land route to the west of going to be key in the coming years. That way they can cut us out.
You mean they are surrounding us as we surrounded Iran?
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