Posted on 11/27/2020 8:24:12 AM PST by Drew68
[Editor’s note: the article and video discussed below have been pulled by Johns Hopkins Newsletter. You can read the announcement here. The claims made by the professor will clearly require more investigation, as the announcement says. That said, AIER is publishing this in the interest of objective science and open discussion.]
At the time of this writing, the United States currently maintains the highest number of Covid-19 deaths and ranks 11th for the highest deaths per capita. There have been approximately 262,000 recorded Covid-19 deaths in the United States, which is certainly a concerning number.
However, a new study (link removed or site crashed but now available at Archive.org) published by Dr. Genevieve Briand at Johns Hopkins University notes some critical accounting errors done at the national level. The study – which is still being vetted – simply examines the raw data that should have been questioned months ago. The overall conclusion is that Covid-19, at least according to collected data, is not the killer disease that it is currently hyped up to be. AIER is not endorsing the study as is without further study, but we are interested in the argument being examined and discussed.
Viewing Covid-19 Deaths in Context
It is already well established that Covid-19 is a disease that is most dangerous to those over the age of 65 and who have preexisting conditions. In the United States, there has been an observed 2.1% mortality rate, with elderly individuals making up over half that number.
Young and healthy people are not by any significant capacity threatened by Covid-19.
One of the most important factors when it comes to Covid-19 is preventing excess death. According to the CDC,
“Estimates of excess deaths can provide information about the burden of mortality potentially related to the COVID-19 pandemic, including deaths that are directly or indirectly attributed to COVID-19. Excess deaths are typically defined as the difference between the observed numbers of deaths in specific time periods and expected numbers of deaths in the same time periods.”
Essentially, there is an average number of deaths every year due to a variety of causes that for the most part have remained constant through the years. This includes morbidities such as heart disease, which has long been the leading cause of death, and cancer, which has long plagued our existence. For Covid-19 to be a serious cause of alarm, it would need to significantly increase the number of average deaths.
However, according to the study,
“These data analyses suggest that in contrast to most people’s assumptions, the number of deaths by COVID-19 is not alarming. In fact, it has relatively no effect on deaths in the United States.”
Total deaths in the United States show no significant change and even mirror past trends of seasonal illness.
Essentially, there is an average number of deaths every year due to a variety of causes that for the most part have remained constant through the years. This includes morbidities such as heart disease, which has long been the leading cause of death, and cancer, which has long plagued our existence. For Covid-19 to be a serious cause of alarm, it would need to significantly increase the number of average deaths.
According to this graph constructed using data provided by the CDC from the last 6 years, total deaths have remained relatively constant and increases can be explained by various factors such as a larger population. The spikes in deaths in 2020 are consistent with historical trends, only topping 2018 by 11,292 deaths. There have been over 262,000 deaths attributed to Covid-19 in the United States, yet total deaths have not increased in any alarming capacity; they have only mirrored existing trends. In short, according to 6 years of data collected by the CDC, Covid-19 has not led to any significant increase in deaths.
Diving Deeper
What is even more interesting if not more alarming is that the spike in recorded Covid-19 deaths seen in 2020 has coincided with a proportional decrease in death from other diseases.
Yanni Gu writes
“This suggests, according to Briand, that the COVID-19 death toll is misleading. Briand believes that deaths due to heart diseases, respiratory diseases, influenza and pneumonia may instead be recategorized as being due to COVID-19.”
Deaths have remained relatively constant, yet reported deaths due to deadly conditions such as heart disease have fallen while reported Covid deaths have risen. This suggests that the current Covid death count is in some capacity relabeled deaths due to other ailments. According to the graph, reported Covid deaths even overtook heart disease as the main cause of death at one point, which should raise suspicion.
This aligns with many other well-established facts about the virus, such as those with comorbidities are the most at risk. According to the CDC, about 94% of Covid deaths occur with comorbidities. This suggests that it could be possible that a large number of deaths could have been mainly due to more serious ailments such as heart disease but categorized as a Covid-19 death, a far less lethal disease.
According to this graph provided by the study, deaths labeled under Covid-19 increased while deaths labeled under others decreased. It is important to note that this sample only applies to the month of April as the author notes these were the weeks with the highest reported deaths. Gu writes
“If [the COVID-19 death toll] was not misleading at all, what we should have observed is an increased number of heart attacks and increased COVID-19 numbers. But a decreased number of heart attacks and all the other death causes doesn’t give us a choice but to point to some misclassification,” Briand replied.” “The CDC classified all deaths that are related to COVID-19 simply as COVID-19 deaths. Even patients dying from other underlying diseases but are infected with COVID-19 count as COVID-19 deaths. This is likely the main explanation as to why COVID-19 deaths drastically increased while deaths by all other diseases experienced a significant decrease…
Furthermore, Briand’s research notes that the percentage of death has remained relatively constant through all age groups. Covid death statistics seem to mirror the normal distribution of death amongst age groups, further lending credence to the argument that many Covid deaths are recategorized deaths.
What Do We Do With This Information?
Briand and likely many others suppose that the extreme emphasis on Covid-19 has led to the unintended classification of the disease as the cause of death. She further stresses that although this data challenges the idea that Covid is an unprecedented and lethal disease, we should still be concerned with mitigating death in general.
However, it is clear that this significant accounting error regarding Covid deaths, if true, is not productive. It has caused mass hysteria and misinformed public policy. Closing down communities to fight a virus that according to the data, has had no significant contribution to total deaths, reduces our overall capacity to build a healthy society.
Lockdowns have resulted in severe damage to our capacity to improve the general health of society. From the catastrophic economic damage that lowers the standard of living for everyone to surgeries being deemed “unessential,” our current policies are not helping in preventing deaths in general; they are likely leading to more. Suicides and substance abuse are up, mental and physical health are down, all due to lockdowns.
The late Dr. Donald Henderson, who led the eradication of smallpox, noted in 2006 that
“Experience has shown that communities faced with epidemics or other adverse events respond best and with the least anxiety when the normal social functioning of the community is least disrupted.”
The hysteria over Covid-19 has likely led to the alleged accounting error noted in Briand’s study, the reclassification of expected deaths from all causes into Covid deaths. That accounting error has likely led to a number of policy decisions that have drastically crippled our ability to support the general welfare of society, economically, socially, and spiritually. Going forward these findings should give us pause and reconsideration over the threat Covid-19 actually poses and realize how much avoidable damage we have done to ourselves as a result.
Links and graphs at the source.
What I find interesting is that the article is in the JHU undergrad newspaper. Not where you’d expect to find a story of this magnitude.
Study: Absolutely NO excess deaths from COVID-19
November 26, 2020 4:15 pm Robert Zimmerman
UPDATE: It appears the newsletter analysis that I linked to below was too hopeful for the authorities at Johns Hopkins, even though it was based on actual data. Mere minutes after I posted this they took it down, censoring this conclusion. Though I quoted a lot below, the article was much longer, included detailed graphs, and was thoughtful and thorough.
Positive news like this however must not be published. It must be squelched and silenced. We must live in fear, even if the thing we fear does not exist.
One of my readers below however found it on the Wayback Machine, here.
I have also embedded below the fold the webinar where the information censored was discussed in detail. In case Johns Hopkins or Youtube decides to censor this webinar also, another one of my readers below has downloaded it and made it available here. (It is very sad that a university now considers Orwell’s 1984 to be an instruction manual instead of a warning.)
Original post:
——————————
A new analysis of the 2020 death statistics in the United States has revealed that despite the panic over COVID-19, the total number of deaths in all age groups — including the elderly — showed no change before or after the arrival of the virus.
This bears repeating, in bold and italics: There have been no excess deaths in 2020.
I’m not sure the article was accurate. It seems to contradict CDC data.
Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
But its withdrawal has been mishandled. What we need is a reconciliation of the data sets.
Like everything else with COVID, what John Hopkins has done here has set an unbelievably dangerous precedent.
Methinks the powers that be at Johns Hopkins are about to learn about th Streisand Effect.
Thanks for the post. I was wondering when someone would take hard look at the numbers. Sadly the media used this virus as a way to paint the USA in a “malaise” like situation. We need to defund the MSM as it currently operates.
The archived article
https://web.archive.org/web/20201126223119/https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19
Though making clear the need for further research, the article was being used to support false and dangerous inaccuracies about the impact of the pandemic. We regret that this article may have contributed to the spread of misinformation about COVID-19."The article “A closer look at U.S. deaths due to COVID-19,” published in the Science & Technology section on Nov. 22, has been deleted.
bump for later
...CDC data....
___________
Which CDC data, from when?
How does anyone know which data, if any, is accurate?
On what basis may the consumer vet any data source at any given point in time?
Please include all relevant deltas.
But isn’t that CDC report relying on the deaths and death counts as they have been labeled, as to their cause, which is no more than accepting the bad accounting of deaths first, and then making some “excess” analysis based on that bad accounting?
We need a reconciliation of something.
Our leaders obliterated a $16 trillion economy, put millions of Americans out of work, and bankrupted countless small businesses. The shutdowns fueled nationwide riots that cause billions in damage while also opening the doors to the greatest curtailment of civil rights we've ever experienced. Our lives have been disrupted beyond measure and fundamentally altered.
And now, as many of us long suspected, the truth is coming out. "Not really that big of a deal." says the nations' premier medical university, before they quickly deleted it.
Should we start a pool as to how long it will be before Dr. Genevieve Briand has a tragic fatal accident?
You’ll never get 100% accurate data because you had people being labeled as Covid deaths early on without being tested. If they merely displayed ANY symptom they were thrown into the bucket. Early on tests were in short supply and they didn’t want to waste them on the already deceased.
Then you have variance because in real life people die of things like a heart attack or pneumonia, but may also have Covid. What actually killed them, and in the past even just compared with the flu, would we have counted that as a flu death?
It’s just all a circus, but it served it’s political intended purpose during the era of opposition politics by Biden and the Democrats. If Biden assumes office, you better believe Covid will make a rapid exit from the stage and if another such disease were to pop up, as with Obama who was in change for one of the worst flu seasons in decades where many died, NOTHING will be done to upset the economy. Once you become the manager of the store and responsible for the ledger, you have to act like an adult.
After 41 weeks, (Jan through October), total deaths:
2018: 2,207,131
2019: 2,226,011
2020: 2,550,182
That's 324,171 more deaths this year than at the same time last year. Obviously COVID is having a huge impact. NO clue what crack the Johns Hopkins economist was on, but likely an excel error or typo to get the results she published, which is probably why it was withdrawn.
Look at the raw data yourself, the same data the KH economist supposedly was using: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
It wasn’t an error.
This was NEVER about public health.
I read recently where the CDC or whoever is in charge of cause of death attributions were even more insistent on findings to claim CV-19 as the COD.
Sorry - no source right now.
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