Posted on 11/26/2020 10:27:32 AM PST by consult
I think it will be the definitive study that might guide us away from lockdowns as they were all based on false modeling.
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A systematic review and meta-analysis of 43 studies (3229 individuals) finds that viable virus appears to be short-lived, with high titres of SARS-CoV-2 are detected early in the disease course, with an early peak observed at the time of symptom onset to day 5 of illness (Lancet Microb. 2020;Published:November 19). RNA detection cannot be used to infer infectiousness, but the mean duration of SARS-CoV-2 RNA shedding was 17 days in upper respiratory tract ("no live virus was isolated from culture beyond day 9 of symptoms despite persistently high viral RNA loads"), 14.6 days (9.3â20.0; seven studies, 260 individuals) in lower respiratory tract, 17.2 days (14.4â20.1; 13 studies, 586 individuals) in stool, and 16.6 days (3.6â29.7; two studies, 108 individuals) in serum samples. Maximum shedding duration was 83 days in the upper respiratory tract, 59 days in the lower respiratory tract, 126 days in stools, and 60 days in serum. This study "emphasiss the importance of early case finding and prompt isolation as well as public education about the spectrum of illness.
Our study shows that isolation practices should be commenced with the start of first symptoms, which can include mild and atypical symptoms, preceding typical symptoms of COVID-19 such as cough and fever." "Although modelling studies estimated potential viral load peak before symptom onset (see below), we did not identify any study that confirms pre-symptomatic viral load peak."
"Most studies demonstrate faster viral clearance among asymptomatic individuals than those who are symptomatic. This finding is in keeping with viral kinetics observed with other respiratory viruses such as influenza and MERS-CoV, in which people with asymptomatic infection have a shorter duration of viral shedding than symptomatic individuals. However, data on the shedding of infectious virus in asymptomatic individuals are too scarce to quantify their transmission potential in order to inform policy on quarantine duration in the absence of testing."
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(20)30172-5/fulltext
Published: November 19, 2020 ----------
Here is the modeling study released April 15th mentioned above that our "experts" have used to justify lockdowns:
We estimated that 44% (95% confidence interval, 25-69%) of secondary cases were infected during the index cases' presymptomatic stage, in settings with substantial household clustering, active case finding and quarantine outside the home. Disease control measures should be adjusted to account for probable substantial presymptomatic transmission (Nat Med. 2020;26(5):672-675. Epub 2020 Apr 15) https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32296168/
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So to summarize.....There are 3 conclusions I found. 1) RNA testing remain positive for almost 3 months despite viral loads dropping to zero at day 9. ("no live virus was isolated from culture beyond day 9 of symptoms despite persistently high viral RNA loads")
2) This study "emphasizes the importance of early case finding and prompt isolation as well as public education about the spectrum of illness.
3) They did not find evidence of significant pre-symptomatic spreading. "Although modelling studies estimated potential viral load peak before symptom onset (see above), we did not identify any study that confirms pre-symptomatic viral load peak."
Neither do masks
As the meme says:
If the first lockdown didn’t work, why do we need another?
If the first lockdown worked, why do we need another?
Lockdowns are not for COVID. They are trying to suppress us.
Even a Military/US Marines-US Naval Medical Corp-Enforced Quarantine Can’t Stop the Virus, Study Reveals:
Jeffrey A. Tucker American Institute for Economic Research
– November 13, 2020
AIER >> Daily Economy >> Regulation >> Authoritarianism
The New England Journal of Medicine has published a study that goes to the heart of the issue of lock downs. The question has always been whether and to what extent a lock down, however extreme, is capable of suppressing the virus.
If so, you can make an argument that at least lock downs, despite their astronomical social and economic costs, achieve something. If not, nations of the world have embarked on a catastrophic experiment that has destroyed billions of lives, and all expectation of human rights and liberties, with no payoff at all.
[The earliest version of this article misstated the conditions of the control group. They were equally locked down with those who participated in the study. The difference between the two concerned testing frequency and the isolation response.
This does not affect this article’s conclusion; indeed it strengthens it: even under extreme measures, the virus spread, and more so with the extra measure intended to control the virus. Nearly all infections were without symptoms.]
AIER has long highlighted studies that show no gain in virus management from lock downs. Even as early as April, a major data scientist said that this virus becomes endemic in 70 days after the first round of infection, regardless of policies. The largest global study of lock downs compared with deaths as published in The Lancet found no association between coercive stringencies and deaths per million.
To test further might seem superfluous but, for whatever reason, governments all over the world, including in the US, still are under the impression that they can affect viral transmissions through a range of “non pharmaceutical interventions” (NPIs) like mandatory masks, forced human separation, stay-at-home orders, bans of gatherings, business and school closures, and extreme travel restrictions.
Nothing like this has been tried on this scale in the whole of human history, so one might suppose that policy makers have some basis for their confidence that these measures accomplish something.
A study conducted by Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in cooperation with the Naval Medical Research Center sought to test lock downs along with testing and isolation. In May, 3,143 new recruits to the Marines were given the option to participate in a study of frequent testing under extreme quarantine.
The study was called CHARM, which stands for COVID-19 Health Action Response for Marines. Of the recruits asked, a total of 1,848 young people agreed to be guinea pigs in this experiment which involved “which included weekly qPCR testing and blood sampling for IgG antibody assessment.” In addition, the CHARM study volunteers who did test positively “on the day of enrollment (day 0) or on day 7 or day 14 were separated from their roommates and were placed in isolation.”
What did the recruits have to do? The study explains, and, as you will see, they faced an even more strict regime that has existed in civilian life in most places. All recruits, even those not in the CHARM group, did the following.
All recruits wore double-layered cloth masks at all times indoors and outdoors, except when sleeping or eating; practiced social distancing of at least 6 feet; were not allowed to leave campus; did not have access to personal electronics and other items that might contribute to surface transmission; and routinely washed their hands. They slept in double-occupancy rooms with sinks, ate in shared dining facilities, and used shared bathrooms.
All recruits cleaned their rooms daily, sanitized bathrooms after each use with bleach wipes, and ate preplated meals in a dining hall that was cleaned with bleach after each platoon had eaten.
Most instruction and exercises were conducted outdoors. All movement of recruits was supervised, and unidirectional flow was implemented, with designated building entry and exit points to minimize contact among persons.
All recruits, regardless of participation in the study, underwent daily temperature and symptom screening. Six instructors who were assigned to each platoon worked in 8-hour shifts and enforced the quarantine measures.
If recruits reported any signs or symptoms consistent with Covid-19, they reported to sick call, underwent rapid qPCR testing for SARS-CoV-2, and were placed in isolation pending the results of testing.
Instructors were also restricted to campus, were required to wear masks, were provided with preplated meals, and underwent daily temperature checks and symptom screening. Instructors who were assigned to a platoon in which a positive case was diagnosed underwent rapid qPCR testing for SARS-CoV-2, and, if the result was positive, the instructor was removed from duty.
Recruits and instructors were prohibited from interacting with campus support staff, such as janitorial and food-service personnel. After each class completed quarantine, a deep bleach cleaning of surfaces was performed in the bathrooms, showers, bedrooms, and hallways in the dormitories, and the dormitory remained unoccupied for at least 72 hours before reoccupancy.
The reputation of Marine basic training is that it is tough going but this really does take it to another level. Also, this is an environment where those in charge do not mess around. There was surely close to 100% compliance, as compared with, for example, a typical college campus.
What were the results? The virus still spread, though 90% of those who tested positive were without symptoms. Incredibly, 2% of the CHARM recruits still contracted the virus, even if all but one remained asymptomatic. “Our study showed that in a group of predominantly young male military recruits, approximately 2% became positive for SARS-CoV-2, as determined by qPCR assay, during a 2-week, strictly enforced quarantine.”
And how does this compare to the control group that was not tested and not isolated in the case of a positive case? Have a look at this chart from the study:
New England Journal of Medicine
https://www.aier.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Screen-Shot-2020-11-13-at-10.16.32-AM-1200x691.png
Which is to say that the nonparticipants actually contracted the virus at a slightly lower rate than those who were under an extreme regime. Conversely, extreme enforcement of NPIs plus more frequent testing and isolation was associated with a greater degree of infection.
I’m grateful to Don Wolt for drawing my attention to this study, which, so far as I know, has received very little attention from any media source at all, despite having been published in the New England Journal of Medicine on November 11.
Here are four actual media headlines about the study that miss the point entirely:
CNN: “Many military Covid-19 cases are asymptomatic, studies show”
SciTech Daily: “Asymptomatic COVID-19 Transmission Revealed Through Study of 2,000 Marine Recruits”
ABC: “Broad study of Marine recruits shows limits of COVID-19 symptom screening”
US Navy: “Navy/Marine Corps COVID-19 Study Findings
Published in New England Journal of Medicine”
No national news story that I have found highlighted the most important finding of all: extreme quarantine plus frequent testing and isolation among military recruits did nothing to stop the virus.
The study is important because of the social structure of control here. It’s one thing to observe no effects from national lockdowns. There are countless variables here that could be invoked as cautionary notes: demographics, population density, preexisting immunities, degree of compliance, and so on.
But with this Marine study, you have a near homogeneous group based on age, health, and densities of living. And even here, you see confirmed what so many other studies have shown: lockdowns are pointlessly destructive.
They do not manage the disease. They crush human liberty and produce astonishing costs, such as 5.53 million years of lost life from the closing of schools alone.
The lockdowners keep telling us to pay attention to the science. That’s what we are doing. When the results contradict their pro-compulsion narrative, they pretend that the studies do not exist and barrel ahead with their scary plans to disable all social functioning in the presence of a virus.
Lockdowns are not science. They never have been. They are an experiment in social/political top-down management that is without precedent in cost to life and liberty.
[The earliest version of this article misstated the conditions of the control group. They were equally locked down with those who participated in the study. The difference between the two concerned testing frequency and the isolation response. This does not affect this article’s conclusion; indeed it strengthens it: even under extreme measures, the virus spread, and more so with the extra measure intended to control the virus. Nearly all infections were without symptoms.]
https://www.aier.org/article/even-a-military-enforced-quarantine-cant-stop-the-virus-study-reveals/
New England Journal of Medicine
Which is to say that the nonparticipants actually contracted the virus at a slightly lower rate than those who were under an extreme regime. Conversely, extreme enforcement of NPIs plus more frequent testing and isolation was associated with a greater degree of infection.
I’m grateful to Don Wolt for drawing my attention to this study, which, so far as I know, has received very little attention from any media source at all, despite having been published in the New England Journal of Medicine on November 11.
Here are four actual media headlines about the study that miss the point entirely:
CNN: “Many military Covid-19 cases are asymptomatic, studies show”
SciTech Daily: “Asymptomatic COVID-19 Transmission Revealed Through Study of 2,000 Marine Recruits”
ABC: “Broad study of Marine recruits shows limits of COVID-19 symptom screening”
In before the fearper n00bs.
True. Masks are useless.
I dare MSM to present this scientific evidence!
Yep. Covid lockdowns are part of the World Economic Forum/UN Forum/UN “Great Reset” plan. Much easier to take over a people if you have destroyed their livelihoods......
Patriots are reminded that the purpose of PDJT’s successful early lockdown was not to stop the spread of COVID-19, but to slow the spread of virus to prevent medical services from being overwhelmed.
On the other hand, lockdowns called too late by desperate Democrats, politically correct lockdowns weaponized to try force people to submit to Democratic elite, unthinkingly help to spread the virus to immediate family members in my non-medical opinion.
Corrections, insights welcome.
This morning on the news the quote “experts” are now saying that after Thanksgiving we should expect another vast increase in cases of coronavirus. Now, why are they saying this? For more than one reason:
1) They want to blame the ignorant and non-compliant public for the increase in cases due to ignoring advice and mandates attempting to regulate holiday travel and Thanksgiving rules for eating your turkey dinner with too many guests present. It’s all our fault, not the coronavirus itself and despite no one really knowing how it has spread despite massive lock-downs and masking rules the last time around.
2) They are setting us up for more State mandates and regulations following Thanksgiving because they want to now ruin Christmas that is coming up quickly. We were “bad” at Thanksgiving by not obeying our superiors, so now we will have to suffer even more indignities to our freedoms at Christmas time. Mark my words, it’s coming.
Get ready for a new onslaught of “stay at home” edicts, more no traveling rules, more lock-down mandates in primarily Democrat States, more harassment of any non-obeying members of the populace by their fellow citizen harridans in public places, scolding those that are not compliant with masking requirements or the closing down of entertainment establishments. More fines, more pitting of one American citizen against another, creating ever more of a divide, taking us one step closer to Civil War or a dictatorship of the left.
'Dr. Ferris' from Atlas Shrugged:
"Did you really think that we want those laws to be observed?" said Dr. Ferris. "We want them broken. You'd better get it straight that it's not a bunch of boy scouts you're up against, then you'll know that this is not the age for beautiful gestures.
We are after power and we mean it. You fellows were pikers, but we know the real trick, and you'd better get wise to it.
There's no way to rule innocent men. The only power any government has is the power to crack down on criminals. Well, when there aren't enough criminals, one makes them. One declares so many things to be a crime that it becomes impossible for men to live without breaking laws.
Who wants a nation of law-abiding citizens? What's there in that for anyone?
But just pass the kind of laws that can neither be observed nor enforced nor objectively interpreted,and you create a nation of lawbreakers, and then you cash in.
Now that's the system, Mr. Rearden, that's the game, and once you understand it, you'll be much easier to deal with."
Just add "Sick People" to "Criminals ", and "multi-thousand dollar a dose gene modifying vaccines and Lockdowns" to "Laws" in the above, and you have Fauci's and Gates' and their ilk's schemes.
No quarantine in the history of the world has ever worked.
NOT ONE.
Ping
“This morning on the news the quote “experts” are now saying that after Thanksgiving we should expect another vast increase in cases of coronavirus. Now, why are they saying this? For more than one reason:”
I forgot my reason # 3: The Dems/liberals only have a short time to easily continue to issue lock-down edicts and masking requirements as the vaccines will kick in making lock-downs moot. One caveat, Fauci, who Biden will hire “as the pandemic oracle, will try to extend masking requirements forever and a day, in spite of mass vaccinations that are coming shortly. Your new fashion accessory for life.
Here is one last point regarding the virus. This pandemic is and will continue to be a way of softening up the public to the idea of mass mandates, making us ever more compliant to orders issued by a Dem President and one or both Houses of Congress (depending on results of the GA run-off election).
Americans are being tested regularly now as to how much they will put up with in being regulated by the gov’t, for future use BY that gov’t. Training Sheeple into giving up more and more of our liberties, while folks are somehow hoping more mandates, rules and regulations won’t be imposed even more directly into governing their individual lives. We are being buttered up to obey our socialist/fascist new masters. We need a lot more action, and less verbiage.
So far the vast majority of U.S. citizens have been way too compliant and are not putting up much more than a verbal stink about the constant encroachment on our private rights according to our Constitution. As no one is being taught about our constitutional rights and freedoms in the educational system anymore, this is not surprising. Too many politically illiterate and brainwashed folks in our Country now.
The constant drumbeat by the MSM/Dems of scaring the populace with hyperventilated virus fears, many with no basis in science whatsoever, have cowed too many Americans. I have listed a deadly combination of factors that will turn our Country into a socialist paradise unless more people are willing to rebel. While I am hoping that our people have not been so corrupted by a lying MSM and corrupt politicians, along with a demographic change in population by the influx of both legal and illegal people into our Country is not to the point of no return. Are we now doomed?
bttt
“”no live virus was isolated from culture beyond day 9 of symptoms...”
Yup. You are not contagious 9 days after first symptom, period, end of story.
And you aee immune.
From the article: “Nothing like this has been tried on this scale in the whole of human history, so one might suppose that policy makers have some basis for their confidence that these measures accomplish something.”
One, if not the largest, reason policy makers push these measures is the public’s belief that these measure accomplish something. The Karens of the world believe these measures work and they’re pushing the politicians to ‘do something’. The politicians will stop pushing these measure when the public, ie, Karens of the world stop pushing the politicians.
The Lancet is under the impression the lockdowns are meant to control Kung Flu. They aren’t.
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