Posted on 11/02/2020 5:35:29 PM PST by springwater13
SCOOP via @LJMoynihan : On the ground intel from the @JoeBiden campaign—they’re increasingly worried about Pennsylvania and that’s why Biden is still campaigning there now. The campaign is concerned Trump could pull out a victory if the election comes down to PA and is contested.
Charles Gasparino @CGasparino
(Excerpt) Read more at twitter.com ...
“the whole Biden campaign is a FRAUD.”
absolutely ...
i don’t see how joe “visiting” states in front of an audience of a dozen and mis-reading his teleprompter with tight video shots that just show him standing by himself on a small stage is much different than campaigning from his basement ... all of those speeches and videos are all the same and could be in any state at any location because there’s no differentiator in the videos ...
Its starting to become obvious.
If Trump “needs” Pennsylvania, then something went wrong. Trumps path to victory, as an incumbent that has a very successful track record, is wide not narrow.
There was a rally in beverly hills...
Yes...
That beverly hills.
Biden is toast.
Get out and vote tomorrow if you haven’t already..
lets burn his toast good. (and burn Harris’ chances of ever trying again)
“Joe was in Cleveland today. Ohio has been beyond his reach for some time. WTF?”
indeed, WTF ...
Trump’s probably gonna take Ohio by 10 points, 2 points more than in 2016 ...
Above, without Maine:
Minn gets JB to only 269
Nev & NH gets JB to only 269
He needs Minn plus (Nev or NH)
Rogue scenario, I can’t imagine Trump losing FL and winning ME-AL, WI and MI.
I’ve described the Minnesota Iron Range is to Minnesota what the deep south was prior to Reagan. Southern states including Texas were reliably democrat strongholds up until a generation ago. The Iron Range in MN was like that as well. Blue Collar, immigrant settled areas (with many immigrants from Sweden, Norway, Czechoslovakia - more liberal home countries) in mining & manufacturing industries - all union, all company men(and women). They were yellow dog democrats all the way. That’s is changing as the dems go away from being the party of the working person and instead the party of fringe activists in big cities. I live in the SW part of the state and while it has been a ‘lean republican’ area for a while, this year there are probably 75 Trump signs for every Biden one. I was in the Twin Cities yesterday in the north metro - in areas I myself campaigned in back 20 years ago so I know they are liberal... and even in those bastions of traditional democrats I only saw a smattering of Biden signs. Granted, more than I’ve seen anywhere else, but WAY less than I’ve personally observed in other election cycles. There is zero enthusiasm for Biden. There’s crawl-over-broken-glass-to-vote enthusiasm that you can feel in the air for Trump. I predicted Trump’s support in this state would get him within 2% of winning in 2016 (actual numbers were 1.5%) and I predict he wins Minnesota by at least 2% this time around. Closer than I’d like or is warranted - but a win is a win.
Go vote everybody.
The President is not losing this.
yes...
I live in the range..
Trump signs, flags, trucks with flags..
most biden supporters do not have signs..
He’ll carry the 8th...
We are also ready to ditch smith..
So I suspect if trump carries MN, Lewis will win the senate seat.
I wouldn’t have wanted NE to get rid of its EV allocation by EV after 2008; in factm, I would have preferred that the NE state legislature amend the law so that the two EVs that currently go to the statewide winner instead go one to the statewide winner and one to the candidate who wins the more CDs. While that would be terrible if we look only at NE—not only did Obama win an EV by carrying NE-02, but he came a heck of a lot closer to also winning NE-02 than to winning the state, so the amendment that I was proposing would have given Obama a shot of winning three of NE’s five EVs while losing statewide.
So why would I propose that NE not only keep its allocation method but give the statewide winner only one EV instead of two? Because having NE keep that law after Obama won one EV, and modifying it to give him a chance at winning three EVs even without carrying the state, would make it far less likely that the courts would strike down such a law were it adopted in a state like VA, which had a GOP legislature and governor but had been trending RAT in presidential elections. In fact, if you recall, my preference was for a whole slew of states with GOP control but that had been voting Democrat for president to do the same thing. Had VA, NC, PA, MI, WI, OH, MN, IA, NV and FL all done that, it would have resulted in President Trump getting over 270 EVs in 2016 even had he barely failed to carry (instead of barely carrying) PA, MI and WI. Alas, we lost that window of opportunity; thankfully, Trump did win PA, MI and WI narrowly in 2016 to win the election, and I have a strong feeling that he will do so again tomorrow (and add MN) to win reelection.
In any event, while I would not have gotten rid of the EV allocation method by CD had I been in the NE legislature, I certainly would have shored up both the NE-02 and the NE-01 in 2011 redistricting. It would have been easy to draw three visually pleasing CDs that would all be comfortably Republican while only splitting two counties in the entire state.
Had the NE legislature drawn a line east of Lancaster County (Lincoln) and placed the SW corner of the state (Pawnee, Richardson, Johnson, Nemaha, Otoe, Cass and Sarpy Counties) in the NE-02 with 72.6% of Douglas County (Omaha), far fewer people would be talking about Biden having a chance of winning NE-02. Had the Douglas County portion added to the NE-02 voted the same as Douglas County as a whole, then Trump’s 2016 victory margin in NE-02 would have been a bit over 25,500 instead of a bit over 6,500 as he got in the all-of-Douglas-plus-a-bit-of-Sarpy NE-02 that the legislature did draw. And, of course, there’s no reason why the 27.4% of Douglas County that would be placed in the mostly rural NE-03 couldn’t be the most heavily Democrat parts of Omaha, which would permit the NE-02 to have given Trump a victory margin of maybe 55,000, thus making it practically impossible for a Democrat to carry that district (not only for president, but for Congress).
Hopefully the NE legislature won’t make the same mistake again.
25,500
“The ineligible Harris hadn’t been campaigning very much because the DNC party bosses realize she turns off more voters every time she speaks”
tonight, tucker showed a clip of Harris campaigning in florida with a phony southern accent ...
That’s percentages of each group voting; says exactly NOTHING about who they voted for. Of those 66% Dems, how many #walkaway types among them cast votes for Trump?
No way to know, but basis numbers from his rallies, where more than 50% of attendees were Democrats... I’m willing to go out on a limb and say a third of those 66% went for Trump. So 23%R + 22%D voting R = 45%
Add a slew of the NonPartisan (NP) voters in there... Oh, heck, yeah the place is in-play!
The iron range is seeing what democrat control does.
Walz has been holding up line 3 for years. (no pipeline jobs)
Walz has been keeping permits for mining tied up as well (no mining jobs)
Walz killed the tourism industry this summer with his covid lock downs and other restrictions.
he’s basically made it impossible for the people on the range to earn a living.
They are pissed. I suspect they will take it out on democrats down ticket as well.
(I live on the south end of the range)
“Real warriors understand only total defeat. . Do not rest until the battle is over. We should all assume that we are losing big until we win big (even if the margin of victory is small).”
so, given that there’s only about 12 hours left to “do battle”, what exactly do you, “real warrior”, plan to personally do without rest until then, i mean, other than post negative bullshit in response to genuinely positive data that’s beginning to flow in from all over the place?
Projecting the votes from this article against '16 results will Republicans win. There are many more Republican votes out there.
However a few other things exist. There are 130 colleges and universities in PA. Most students are not on campus. There is no college GOTV herding effort this year.
The black vote is low. However, a higher percentage of blacks are voting for Trump than in the past.
One last thing no one seems to write about in the media. Biden had no ground game in PA. They started to go door to door a week and a half a go. The GOP had over a million door knocks before Oct 1. This has led to a shift in voter registration in PA where Republicans are picking up voter and Rats are losing voters.
I worry about this metric. I went to the Minden NV rally, and used 2 phone numbers to register for the 4 “tickets.”
One phone number was mine (GOP).
The other one was my 15 year old daughter’s.
If many rallygoers did as I did, that would explain the “non voters from 2016” and “non Republicans.”
Just for awareness.
That said, I believe Trump will win tomorrow, and we will know before midnight.
There were enough people at the Scranton rally today that didn't vote in '16 to more than make up for the -3 in '16. That's just among people at the rally and says nothing about family and friends that could go to the rally.
Let’s not let it be close enough to allow it be “contested”
What I did, in this battle, is ensure all 4 registered voters in my household voted today for Trump.
They each used my filled in sample ballot, and they took it down in turn to the in person “vote center” and followed it. One chose to vote from home, and I offered to turn his ballot in to the drop box, which I did.
Guess what? I’m the female who did the research and filled in the sample ballot and my husband and sons followed. Women do the “government errands” like this.
So now we hope the liberal women aren’t just doing the same for the men in their households!
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