Posted on 11/02/2020 11:49:39 AM PST by montag813
In 2016, the polling averages showed Hillary Clinton with a three-point lead over Donald Trump. She ended up winning the popular vote by two points but losing the Electoral College.
This year, the polling averages give Joe Biden a much bigger advantage—7 percentage points. My polling for JustTheNews.com over the past month has also consistently shown the former Vice President with a 7 or 8 point advantage.The strength of Biden’s position is also evident in my Battleground State polling here at PoliticalIQ.In the three midwestern states that shocked the world and put the president over the top in 2016, my final polls show Biden leading by seven in Michigan, six in Wisconsin, and six in Pennsylvania. Four years ago, the polls showed much closer races in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
In Florida and North Carolina, a pair of must-win states for Trump, my latest 2020 numbers show Biden up by four points and one point respectively. Bluntly, the president cannot be re-elected without winning both of those states.
Possibly the most troubling numbers for the president in my polls come from two states where he’s ahead—Texas and Montana. He leads by just four points in each of these previously solid Republican states. On top of that, the candidates are tied in Iowa, a state Trump won by nearly ten points in 2016.
Obviously, surprises are possible. Many of these competitive states could end up in either the Republican or the Democratic column. That’s particularly true of North Carolina, Iowa, and Florida. So, we don’t know exactly what the Electoral College vote totals will look like. But the data clearly suggests that when all the votes are counted, Joe Biden will be the president-elect.
Scott Rasmussen and Rasmussen Polling are not the same thing. He was bounced out of the company in 2013.
Company has been very accurate ... Scott not so much as JUST an analyst.
Well, the forth option is Trump victory that is denied night of, count/legal fights, but eventually the SC steps in with Roberts standing down with ACB now there, so Trump wins reelection, but the Dems cry “selected, not elected” again.
Not really ask Governor Gillum in Florida, they had him ahead by 10 pts day before lol
“God help us if Judas Biden wins.”
It’s almost incomprehensible when I look at who the Dems are fielding. Hard to know what to think/do if they prevail. I have some buffer (MAYBE) since I’m retired, but my bigger concerns are for my children and my grandchild.
And how would Biden be up 4 in Florida, yet Dems are panicking over the actual Republican lead in EV in Miami Dade?
I think neither.
The gas lighting stops tomorrow.
“I don’t understand how people think they know by seeing the size or lack thereof at a rally. This is about trump. Love him or hate him.”
But how do the rallies affect those who don’t attend? Watching a Trump rally with people smiling and happy and shouting “we love you!’ verses a Biden rally where he is shouting angrily at a muted audience sitting in hula hoop circles. Which ‘team’ would you rather be on?
But we will see.
+1000!
I note that the LA Times front page (we pay because mom has Alzheimer’s and enjoys holding a paper while eating breakfast even if she doesn’t understand any of it much) is full of Biden will win articles.
I wonder at that strategy. Anyone looking at it might decide why bother go vote, Biden’s got it in the bag. Are they really that confident that they don’t want to scare all the Dems to get out and vote?
One side is going to be extremely disappointed.
[But these are based on polls, not the actual election numbers coming in. Pollsters are out of their element on this, as we are already in the middle of the election. IDK]
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-much-can-obama-help-biden-in-2020/
Then again, it’s easier than ever to avoid pollsters. If Trump wins, their reputations will take a beating. But the need for polls will never go way. Politicians need to know where they stand, where. And unlike Procter and Gamble, they only get true sales data on Election Day every year or so, and incomplete and/or tangential data (to their specific candidacies), at that.
Polling won’t die. It will just become increasingly inaccurate, as people find ways to avoid it, as they avoid ads on the internet, or on TV.
That takes the sting out of losing the House?
There is nothing good about biden and co...NOTHING!
If Congress goes after the social tech business for stifling free speech, there HAS to be something done with the media!!
They use their voice across the country.. to decide who the President is.
Now, they cant do that..
They were once the free press, to notify..to inform the public.
They are no longer notifying nor informing.. they are a political party, giving control to those they choose.
They are no longer the free press.. so for pits sake, take their badges.. revoke the privileges, treat them as they are.. taking rights from citizens and using bogus power to get their way
Join the club. My stomach has been in knots for days and it’s getting worse by the hour.
All the chatter from Dems in different areas is the one thing that is making me cautiously optimistic.
If Biden is really up by 4 there and wins it easily, it will be a landslide in favor of Biden.
—
If Biden were really up 4 in FL, then why this panic from Dem?...
“’We’ve got to stop the bleeding’: Democrats sound alarm in Miami”
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/29/miami-voter-turnout-democrats-433643
If the worst candidate ever running the worst campaign ever wins, that tells you everything you need to know about the day the USA became a communist country.
We have been told all along by the “pollsters” that early vote would be overwhelmingly Biden. This is proving not to be true in some states, at least according to Dem numbers vs. Repub numbers. The number of ballots returned by democrats, I believe in Florida, is just a small percentage over the republicans.
With a quarter of the Trump rally attendees saying they are democrats, no one knows who is ahead in early voting. If the turn out on election day is overwhelmingly R as expected, this thing is over.
Add in a 5% increase in the black vote for Trump and it’s a land slide.
Thanks for depressing me. I’m still going out to vote tomorrow.
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