Posted on 11/02/2020 11:49:39 AM PST by montag813
In 2016, the polling averages showed Hillary Clinton with a three-point lead over Donald Trump. She ended up winning the popular vote by two points but losing the Electoral College.
This year, the polling averages give Joe Biden a much bigger advantage—7 percentage points. My polling for JustTheNews.com over the past month has also consistently shown the former Vice President with a 7 or 8 point advantage.The strength of Biden’s position is also evident in my Battleground State polling here at PoliticalIQ.In the three midwestern states that shocked the world and put the president over the top in 2016, my final polls show Biden leading by seven in Michigan, six in Wisconsin, and six in Pennsylvania. Four years ago, the polls showed much closer races in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
In Florida and North Carolina, a pair of must-win states for Trump, my latest 2020 numbers show Biden up by four points and one point respectively. Bluntly, the president cannot be re-elected without winning both of those states.
Possibly the most troubling numbers for the president in my polls come from two states where he’s ahead—Texas and Montana. He leads by just four points in each of these previously solid Republican states. On top of that, the candidates are tied in Iowa, a state Trump won by nearly ten points in 2016.
Obviously, surprises are possible. Many of these competitive states could end up in either the Republican or the Democratic column. That’s particularly true of North Carolina, Iowa, and Florida. So, we don’t know exactly what the Electoral College vote totals will look like. But the data clearly suggests that when all the votes are counted, Joe Biden will be the president-elect.
Where voter fraud ran rampant and 54 Percent of Christians did not vote. Things are different.
Keeping his Democrat paymasters on board for future contracts.
The point is that there are more people that hate DJT than love or like him; people that love come out to show support; people that hate plot in the shadows and print massive amounts of fake votes.
If the professional pollsters blow it again, there is no reason to ever hire them again. They will have killed off their own profession.
Yeah, FL was one of the states to withstand the dem’s 2018 big gains. If Biden is really up by 4 there and wins it easily, it will be a landslide in favor of Biden.
AUUGHH! The stress!! I am so nervous and nauseous! My stomach is doing somersaults!
This is a good point.
When do we finally reject the “polls” as BS and put them out of business once and for all?
If I was in charge of any media outlet, no way in hell would I put up any poll as factual, cause I know I’ll lose credibility when it’s proven wrong again.
How do you square this Rasmussen story with Trump having a 52% approval rate from...Rasmussen?
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_nov02
it would be interesting to see how the public posters compare with internal campaign polling which we know is more accurate.
I don’t see HOW Biden wins FL.. I just don’t see the support here for him?
Trump was not on the ticket in 2018, this is a whole new ball game.
I think there’s 3 outcomes likely. Biden landslide, Trump narrow win and keeps it, then Trump narrow win on election night and then it’s overturned a few days/weeks later.
IMO.
Hillary is more popular with Dems, no way would Joe do better.
Nobody liked Romney. We held our nose and voted for him. Romney’s campaign counted on the fact that the base’s hatred of Obama was greater than their distrust of Romney. They figured Romeny could tack left and we would all still show up.
They were wrong. The base was unmotivated by Romney and just didn’t show up or voted for a third party candidate and R down ballot.
Anywho, a President with a 52% approval rating on the eve of election does not have more people who hate him than love him. And, since when are the people who hate him shy about showing up and demolishing things? If they thought that showing up at a Biden rally was a way to shove it in Trump supporter’s faces or the country they hate’s faces, they would be out in DROVES. But where are they?
Yes, voter enthusiasm counts, it counts a ton.
Nothing any pollster says, including Scott will prevent me from voting tomorrow. I will stand in line for hours if necessary to vote for Trump.
And I know tens of millions of Americans feel the same way.
Onward to victory!
"I think he's going to quit. Really, right now, I'm saying right here."
No offense, but concern troll postings from members who opened their account two weeks ago raise a lot of suspicion around here.
This is a campaign to disenfranchise people who haven’t voted yet. THAT’S IT. Don’t let it worry you. They’re the ones that need to worry.
The paying customer is always right. If the customer is really interested in a predictive poll they can try find one and pay for it. But there are also those who pay for polls to make news out of them. Accurate polling is tough these days, so the news narrative poll is more common.
I was standing in the backyard yesterday and heard a bunch of car horns honking.
They got closer and closer and then through the houses behind mine I could see the cars and truck with Trump and American flags going by on Lauderdale Dr. honking their horns.
This went on for 15 minutes.
I figured a car a second was going by, 60 cars per minute, 15 minutes = 900 cars.
Suburbs of Richmond VA.
Never seen anything like it.
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