Posted on 11/02/2020 11:49:39 AM PST by montag813
In 2016, the polling averages showed Hillary Clinton with a three-point lead over Donald Trump. She ended up winning the popular vote by two points but losing the Electoral College.
This year, the polling averages give Joe Biden a much bigger advantage—7 percentage points. My polling for JustTheNews.com over the past month has also consistently shown the former Vice President with a 7 or 8 point advantage.The strength of Biden’s position is also evident in my Battleground State polling here at PoliticalIQ.In the three midwestern states that shocked the world and put the president over the top in 2016, my final polls show Biden leading by seven in Michigan, six in Wisconsin, and six in Pennsylvania. Four years ago, the polls showed much closer races in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
In Florida and North Carolina, a pair of must-win states for Trump, my latest 2020 numbers show Biden up by four points and one point respectively. Bluntly, the president cannot be re-elected without winning both of those states.
Possibly the most troubling numbers for the president in my polls come from two states where he’s ahead—Texas and Montana. He leads by just four points in each of these previously solid Republican states. On top of that, the candidates are tied in Iowa, a state Trump won by nearly ten points in 2016.
Obviously, surprises are possible. Many of these competitive states could end up in either the Republican or the Democratic column. That’s particularly true of North Carolina, Iowa, and Florida. So, we don’t know exactly what the Electoral College vote totals will look like. But the data clearly suggests that when all the votes are counted, Joe Biden will be the president-elect.
I'm unclear regarding the methodology that his new firm is using.
Whatever his methodology, I don't know why it should pick up "shy" Trump voters any more than other pollster today.
I do think that Trump voters might reasonably be expected to be even shyer than they were in 2016, considering all that has happened since then.
I don't think they are worried about that. Their primary job is push-polling. Push-polling by its very nature is inaccurate because its goal is to form opinions rather than gauge them. If they are really, really successful in their push-polling, their over all result can have a degree of accuracy.
If the Marxist Left commits enough fraud to steal this election, I hope that live ammo fighting breaks out nationwide.
There is no coexisting with the seditious maggots intent on destroying our Constitution and our Nation.
I’m with you, except I don’t subscribe to any newspapers now and I never gave a rat’s behind for sports. I’m not sure if I could give up cable right now as old movies on TCM are my only consolation.
“I respect Rasmussen, but I think he is off here.”
I trust Rasmussen more than many others. I think he is just saying what his numbers are telling him. The question is whether those numbers and assumptions are right.
My belief is that modern polling is virtually dead and there is no way to predict close elections any more. Most people are just not responding to unknown calls as in days gone by.
I promise myself each election that I won’t obsess and watch all day. Then I do every single time.
As much as I want Trump to win..... to be honest....I just don’t know.
Nobody knows, it's important that everyone votes tomorrow and brings or encourages others to do the same.
OH, OK. I was so confused because Rasmussen Reports has been far more optimistic about the president’s chances.
Yes, people lie and don’t want to be bothered with or “judged” by pollsters. I gave the example recently of a race between “Black Lives Matter” and “All Lives Matter.” If asked by a pollster to chose which one they prefer many people who secretly and honestly believe “All Lives Matter” will answer “Black Lives Matter” because they are afraid off appearing to be racist or out of step, or because they may even fear some kind of harm or retribution, even though in total secret they would vote for “All Lives Matter.” 99.9 percent of media coverage of Trump has been negative for five straight years. Athletes, entertainers, politicians, professors, etc. constantly treat Trump supporters as racist, misogynist, out of touch, and downright evil. It is no wonder there are many “shy” Trump voters.
“Nobody knows, it’s important that everyone votes tomorrow and brings or encourages others to do the same.”
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So many on here seem so certain Trump will win. I am not. Will be a poll worker tomorrow which ought to be interesting.
I already voted. Yes...everyone needs to vote.
If Scott is right, this country is in deep kimchi. Trump only winning by 4 in Texas and Montana? Come on man! Has anyone heard of Political IQ? Pollsters usually get the results that whoever hired them wants.
Scott Rasmussen has not had anything to do with that polling group in more than 7 years.
Scott Rasmussen was bounced from Rasmussen Polling in 2013. No connection.
Nobody knows, and I mean Nobody.
Is there a difference between “Rasmussen” and “Rasmussen Reports”? I know he sold his company but might have started another? That would explain why two outfits with “Rasmussen” in their name have different results.
You're talking about the IOWA Poll which is the standard by which all other polls are measured. President Trump leading by 7 in Iowa means bad news for Biden not just in Iowa, but MN and WI also.
BTW: wasn't Rasmussen wrong in 2016? I thought he was, now I'm not sure.
34 point enthusiasm gap 92 mile Trump parade 160 million voter contacts 33.1 % GDP 2.5 million volunteers. Rasmussen could not be more wrong.
Different people .
Scott sold the firm and now is groveling
cooking up crap for Dem newsletter lefty Politico.
Very sad .
If the professional pollsters blow it again, there is no reason to ever hire them again. They will have killed off their own profession.
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They understand statistics but they don’t understand psychology. And make no mistake, they also fear professional consequences for reporting positive numbers for Trump. In that regard they are not unlike consultants who know who signs their lucrative contracts.
They
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