Here Is The Result If The Polls Are As Wrong In 2020 As They Were In 2016

Dawson County Journal ^ | 10/31/2020 | Tyler Durden

[SeekAndFind]

While very fluid, we can track the latest results of the electronic prediction markets and polling data.

PredictIt currently has a 66% probability for a Biden victory, which is up from a week ago at 62.9% and also higher than four weeks ago, although as usual one has to be aware of just how little capital needs to be deployed to manipulate the illiquid PredictIt market (something every prominent Democratic financier with deep pockets would be well aware of in seeking to manipulate public sentiment in the cheapest possible way). A Trump victory has a roughly 39% probability according to this data, which is up slightly from 37.1% a week ago. The national polls – compiled by Real Clear Politics - suggest a similar tilt in the race with Biden having a 51.3%-43.5% lead against Trump.

Digging into the state polling in competitive states, Biden currently leads in all the battleground, or "toss up" states except for Ohio, Arizona and Texas. This would give him a comfortable Electoral College (EC) victory of 346-192...

... even though RCP's average polls of Top Battleground states (FL, PA, MI, WI, NC, AZ), is now just +3.1 in Biden's favor and down from 5% to weeks ago, with Arizona just flipping to Trump in the past 24 hours.

That said, polls are imperfect as 2016 demonstrated – indeed, if we apply the polling miss from 2016 as Bank of America did last week, Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Iowa and and Maine would flip. For this exercise we have used the latest RCP polling average data as of Oct 31:

• Arizona: Trump +0.6
• Florida: Biden +1.2
• Michigan: Biden +6.5
• North Carolina: Biden +1.2
• Pennsylvania: Biden +3.7
• Wisconsin: Biden +6.4
• Georgia: Biden +0.8
• Iowa: Biden +1.2
• Maine 2: Biden +2.7
• Minnesota: Biden +4.7
• Nebraska-2: Biden +7.8
• Nevada: Biden +4.0
• Ohio: Tie
• Texas: Trump +2.3

These numbers are then adjusted by applying the same error rates as were observed during the 2016 polling, and the results are shown in the table below:

Remarkably, if the polls are as wrong as they were in 2016, Trump would win with 279 of the 538 electoral votes, while Biden would get 259.

Still, the margin of victory would be within 0.5 percentage points in Wisconsin (for Biden) and Georgia (for Trump), which would trigger an automatic recount and delay results. In addition, the margin in Pennsylvania and Florida would be less than 1.0%, likely resulting in a bitter post-election night fight and contested outcomes.

In short, no matter what happens on Nov 3, expect recounts and extensive delays before we have a clear winner.

Putting this together, Bloomberg said it best: "All of that means a Trump win on Tuesday would represent a historically staggering failure by public opinion polls, eclipsing even the 2016 miss. While the president’s chances of being re-elected aren’t zero, pollsters say it’s a long shot."

“If Donald Trump wins, in 2020, anything close to a decisive Electoral College win knowable on election night, that would have repercussions for the research profession that would ripple forever -- and deservedly so,” said Jay Leve, chief executive officer of SurveyUSA, a polling firm.

As Bloomberg notes, Level and other pollsters say the election outcomes range from a blowout Biden win to a closely fought contest that could hinge on recounts and court rulings that either candidate could win. They don’t consider a clear, quick and decisive Trump victory among the possibilities.

“It would be astonishing,” Leve said.

[BigEdLB]

What are these people smoking?

[GaltMeister]

2016 was ‘astonishing’ and Trump did not have near the ground support he has now.

[TexasFreeper2009]

the polls are going to be far more wrong this year than they were in 2016 in Trumps direction.

My theory is this:
Covid fundamentally affected society on a level never before seen in the history of polling. And that fundamental shift affected people in an unusually partisan way. What I mean is.. if you were terrified of Covid... you have probably been hiding in your home since March. If you thought all this was being overblown.. you went on with your life to the extent that your nanny government would let you.

So think for a moment..

who answers polls? PEOPLE AT HOME!

has anyone in the entire history of polling answered a pollster while riding in their car, or at work, or out with the friends or shopping or whatever? NO!!

and who is at home AND HAS BEEN SINCE MARCH!?!?

THOSE TERRIFIED OF COVID!!!!

this explains EVERYTHING when you think about it! Why has Trump been struggling with older voters in most of the polls all year?

BECAUSE OF COVID!!!

the older voters who have barricaded themselves in their homes since March along with terrified liberals are the ones disproportionately at home to answer these polls!

So.. THE POLLS ARE RIGHT! but they reflect the opinions of those TRAPPED AT HOME!

[Signalman]

That makes a lot of sense.

[Ghost of Philip Marlowe]

Unfortunately, “Tyler Durden” is no longer the original Tyler Durden.

ZH has been taken over by far more liberal forces over the past couple of years.

I now refer to it as DrudgeHedge.

The polls are all over the place. Just get out in vote in person on election day if you haven’t already and tell as many people as you can that voting for Biden (the Trojan Horse) and Harris (the invader within that Trojan Horse) is a vote for pure Venezuelan-style communism.

[crusty old prospector]

Doobies, it seems.

[alrea]

if you haven’t already and tell as many people as you can that voting for Biden (the Trojan Horse) and Harris (the invader within that Trojan Horse) is a vote for pure Venezuelan-style communism

how did journalists do when communists took power in Venezuela?

[reasonisfaith]

Have you noticed the polls don’t capture the shy Trump voters?

They were the voters making the difference between polls and actual votes.

The shy Trump vote has grown massively since 2016.

[Alberta's Child]

The demise of the polling industry should be obvious to anyone who looks at these numbers. You had one poll showing Biden ahead by 17 points in Wisconsin or Michigan, and another one showing him up by only 3 in the same state. I don’t care how you look at it ... it’s a clear red flag that the whole process doesn’t work.

That one example is like having one meteorologist predicting a high temperature of 95 degrees tomorrow, and another saying it’s only going to be 70. If you ever saw two weather forecasts like that for the same day, you wouldn’t bother with either one of them.

[ALASKA]

They are wronger.

[gswilder]

Public polling has basically been dead for at least 10 years now.... internal polling is not what it used to be now. We have a lot more ways to capture people voting intentions now, with social media and other big data.

[fireman15]

So.. THE POLLS ARE RIGHT! but they reflect the opinions of those TRAPPED AT HOME!

Good post! But I think that the “shy” Trump voter is also a real phenomena. After years of 95% negative coverage in the MSM I think that people are afraid to share that they support President Trump to a stranger or even a computer pollster or anyone that they do not know well.

[catnipman]

predictit.org is a RIDICULOUS indicator of how an election is actually going to go, but a FANTASTIC way to make some easy money ... i cleaned up in 2016 when the odds were ridiculous against trump winning, like 3 to 1 he’d lose, and i cleared $6,000 in winnings after fees and taxes ...

it’s about 3 to 2 right now that he’ll lose this time around, so the money isn’t quite as easy, but still a great bet as far as i’m concerned ... i’ve made several bets, including bets on individual swing states ... btw, i should note that i’m not normally a gambler, but i consider these bets pretty darn sure things ...

i’ve tried to figure out why these odds don’t make more sense, in particular they’re not moving at all as a steady drumbeat of polls in in the various swing states are shifting in trump’s favor, as well as early indications of bad news for Dem turnout and good news for GOP turnout in various locales ...

so, why are the betting odds so out of whack? predictit.org is a legal betting site that’s an academic experiment at Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand, and what i’ve decided is that it attracts a substantial number of bettors from NZ, australia and europe, ALL of which have even more slanted “news” than the U.S., and the fools that are betting there are betting based on VERY limited and HIGHLY biased information ... thus i consider those of us in the U.S. that ignore the fake polls and intensely study a large variety of sources outside the mainstream have a leg up on the average ignorant bettor at predictit.org ...

[DaiHuy]

I have come to the conclusion that RCP is a leftist polling side. Consider the large banner at the top of their page.

[DaiHuy]

I have come to the conclusion that RCP is a leftist polling side. Consider the large banner at the top of their page.

[catnipman]

“2016 was ‘astonishing’ and Trump did not have near the ground support he has now.”

or have an amazing record of keeping dozens of campaign promises, destroying isis, making the U.S. energy independent, building the best economy in the history of the U.S., making the best trade deals in the history of the U.S., and at least a hundred other significant accomplishments ... and then there are the rallies with thousands and the spontaneous demonstrations and rallies with more thousands, plus an opponent who is a demented old corrupt fool who is the worst Dem candidate in the history of the U.S. who is beholden to the hardest leftist fascist bunch in U.S. history who want to eliminate the use of fossil fuels in five years, pack SCOTUS, confiscate guns, raise taxes, and implement the insanely radical “Green New Deal”, a Democrat Party that has turned into a pack of howling, lying leftist fascist demagogues who want to defund the police and have encouraged radical anarchists to burn and loot our cities, kill our cops, and topple our historical statues ...

[Gasshog]

They will drink the wine of astonishment then

[dennisw]

We have lots of terrified people where I live. I know they have taken in all the CNN Covid brainwashing when I see them outdoors jogging with a mask on....YES THEY DO!

Also see them walking outside, not close to people and dutifully wearing their masks like zombies. I must assume they are Biden voters.

Meanwhile TRUMP is holding his mega-rallies in the cold breezy outdoors at airports. Very hard to catch Covid in such a situation. People are packed close together. Some are masked but maybe half are not.

[dennisw]

“They will drink the wine of astonishment then”

I was astonished in 2016 when I had dozed off. Then woke up at 11PM to see at the NY Times website that Trump had a 93% certainty of winning.

I dozed off because I figured Trump was going to lose.