What are these people smoking?
2016 was ‘astonishing’ and Trump did not have near the ground support he has now.
the polls are going to be far more wrong this year than they were in 2016 in Trumps direction.
My theory is this:
Covid fundamentally affected society on a level never before seen in the history of polling. And that fundamental shift affected people in an unusually partisan way. What I mean is.. if you were terrified of Covid... you have probably been hiding in your home since March. If you thought all this was being overblown.. you went on with your life to the extent that your nanny government would let you.
So think for a moment..
who answers polls? PEOPLE AT HOME!
has anyone in the entire history of polling answered a pollster while riding in their car, or at work, or out with the friends or shopping or whatever? NO!!
and who is at home AND HAS BEEN SINCE MARCH!?!?
THOSE TERRIFIED OF COVID!!!!
this explains EVERYTHING when you think about it! Why has Trump been struggling with older voters in most of the polls all year?
BECAUSE OF COVID!!!
the older voters who have barricaded themselves in their homes since March along with terrified liberals are the ones disproportionately at home to answer these polls!
So.. THE POLLS ARE RIGHT! but they reflect the opinions of those TRAPPED AT HOME!
Unfortunately, “Tyler Durden” is no longer the original Tyler Durden.
ZH has been taken over by far more liberal forces over the past couple of years.
I now refer to it as DrudgeHedge.
The polls are all over the place. Just get out in vote in person on election day if you haven’t already and tell as many people as you can that voting for Biden (the Trojan Horse) and Harris (the invader within that Trojan Horse) is a vote for pure Venezuelan-style communism.
That one example is like having one meteorologist predicting a high temperature of 95 degrees tomorrow, and another saying it’s only going to be 70. If you ever saw two weather forecasts like that for the same day, you wouldn’t bother with either one of them.
They are wronger.
predictit.org is a RIDICULOUS indicator of how an election is actually going to go, but a FANTASTIC way to make some easy money ... i cleaned up in 2016 when the odds were ridiculous against trump winning, like 3 to 1 he’d lose, and i cleared $6,000 in winnings after fees and taxes ...
it’s about 3 to 2 right now that he’ll lose this time around, so the money isn’t quite as easy, but still a great bet as far as i’m concerned ... i’ve made several bets, including bets on individual swing states ... btw, i should note that i’m not normally a gambler, but i consider these bets pretty darn sure things ...
i’ve tried to figure out why these odds don’t make more sense, in particular they’re not moving at all as a steady drumbeat of polls in in the various swing states are shifting in trump’s favor, as well as early indications of bad news for Dem turnout and good news for GOP turnout in various locales ...
so, why are the betting odds so out of whack? predictit.org is a legal betting site that’s an academic experiment at Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand, and what i’ve decided is that it attracts a substantial number of bettors from NZ, australia and europe, ALL of which have even more slanted “news” than the U.S., and the fools that are betting there are betting based on VERY limited and HIGHLY biased information ... thus i consider those of us in the U.S. that ignore the fake polls and intensely study a large variety of sources outside the mainstream have a leg up on the average ignorant bettor at predictit.org ...
They will drink the wine of astonishment then
Honestly, I think Donald Trump is looking at over 400 EV, possibly to even 440.
I look through those states and I think Biden gets all the states leaning toward him, but all but two toss up states should likelybgo to Trump, and all of the ones that lean Trump will go to Trump.
These people are going to go nuts with the size of what is coming from the Trump Wave.
Bartender, may I have what they are drinking?