Posted on 10/29/2020 10:09:25 AM PDT by bort
I have been posting daily reports on North Carolina early voting numbers. Based upon a review of the numbers, I think it is probable that Trump will win NC by double the 3.8 points he won by in 2016. Check out this golden nugget in the North Carolina early vote numbers:
2016—per CNN exit polling, 70% of the 2016 NC electorate was white, 30% non-white. Breaking this 70% white NC vote down by education: 37% of 2016 NC white voters had a college degree, 30% did not have a college degree.
2020—73% of the current early votes are by white voters (73% !). Even better, when this 73% is broken down by education, only 29.4% of the NC early vote electorate are whites with a college degree, while, get this.....44.4% are whites without a college degree.
Folks, we are seeing the same thing in Florida and Nevada. In Florida, Democrat turnout is highest in older, more working-class retiree counties that Trump won in 2016. In Nevada, rural counties are posting huge numbers.
Translation: Even polling firms that have numbers friendlier to Trump are not picking up this surge in non-college whites. And its going to get worse for Democrats, as disproportionate numbers of mail-in ballot requests came from more highly-educated counties like Wake and Durham, and these ballot returns have been drying up for days.
I concentrate on race, class, gender. Put aside party registration. Whites are on pace to be in the low 70s of the electorate. Blacks, 20% or less. We do NOT lose NC if those numbers hold (they will). WWC voters favor Trump. They are Trump’s base. They are showing up in huge #s. We will not lose NC.
Trump is delivering the kill-shot tonight in Fayetteville on behalf of Thom Tillis. Also, we need to win NC gov. b/c redistricting could affect 3 or 4 house seats (at least). Miss Lindsey will be lifted tonight, also, as Trump’s rally will be broadcast in a portion of SC.
I especially appreciate this info because I LIVE HERE!
Like I said, I think the EV points to a Trump win. I just think it will be closer than you two. There are many factors in play, some are not favorable for Trump.
Like I said, I think the EV points to a Trump win. I just think it will be closer than you two. There are many factors in play, some are not favorable for Trump.
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Fair enough. But don’t wait until the last second to place your bet on PredictIt!
NC early voting totals 10-29 @ 5am
Total Ballots Cast: ............3,867,846
Total Turn out: ........................ 52,7%
Mail Ballots cast ................. 852,013
One_Stop Ballots cast .... 3,015,833
Yeah, its 54cent on Biden now. One of my sons placed some bets on the popular vote for me but not individual states. I did give him advice on NC and FL and he placed bets.
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