Posted on 10/26/2020 6:45:28 AM PDT by bort
Good news and bad news:
Bad news: Republicans were out-voted yesterday in early voting, albeit by only 2K votes.
Good news: Yesterday (Sunday), should have been the Democrats best day of early voting, with "souls to the polls" and massive weekend GOTV drives. Republicans actually won "souls to the polls" WEEKEND by 1K votes. The Democrats have cannibalized their election day vote. They are running out of "souls" to bring to the polls.
Democrats--1,281,302 (40.40%) (+25K yesterday)
Republican-952,136 (30.02%) (+23K yesterday)
Unaffiliat-924,243 (29.14%) (+22K yesterday)
Black vote: On what should have been the high watermark for black early voting, the black share of the electorate remained flat this weekend, going from 20.55% on Friday to 20.58% yesterday, which is great news. Black turnout should decline %-wise every day through the election.
Translation: Dems continue to benefit from their overwhelming advantage in mail-in ballots (almost 3:1 advantage); however, the mail-ins are starting to dry up, which means that Republicans should win every remaining day of early voting, which are increasingly becoming more in-person.
The black share of the electorate is the key. Dems need 22.5% of the electorate to be black. It is more likely that black turnout will be under 20% than 22.5%. At the current 20.58%, Trump and Tillis would win.
Finally, for those unfamiliar with NC, Republicans save their best for last, and will significantly out-vote Dems on election day. Rs trailed Ds by 310K at the conclusion of early voting 2016 and won NC by 3.8 points. While the current 329K Dem lead may look daunting, I expect this number to drop in half by election day. NC looks good for us.
ping
Thank you, Bort. Very incisive and much appreciated.
Yep... if the dem-to-GOP difference can be under 300K, our side should be OK in NC.
Nearly a million Indy voters I think most of them are with Trump and he could be leading or tied here.
How do the unaffiliated votes split between Trump and Biden?
FLORIDA PANHANDLE, OKALOOSA COUNTY:
My wife and I both voted this weekend. I on Friday evening and her on Sunday afternoon. Lines were long!.......................
Nearly a million Indy voters I think most of them are with Trump and he could be leading or tied here.
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The last I checked, NC Indy’s were disproportionately middle aged and older white guys. They aren’t voting for riots.
That’s what I think. Trump is likely ahead.
How do the unaffiliated votes split between Trump and Biden?
The last I checked, unaffilateds were disproportionately older white guys (40s and 50s). That’s good for Trump. I cc’d byecomey. Maybe he can chime in.
I wish every FR post were this substantive (and also this encouraging of course!)
I am in NC. Have been planning to vote on Nov 3.
Was reading that Demonrat Gov Cooper (plus other Demonrat governors) MIGHT try to shut down voting places on Nov 3 due to COVID surge.
So, was reconsidering and thinking about voting early.
Though I think the “shutting down of voting places on Nov 3 option” is remote.....I don’t want to take any chances.
What would you recommend?
https://twitter.com/ArletteSaenz/status/1320674538540142592
Biden to visit Tampa and Broward County. Is he campaigning or looking for a retirement home?
My family and I voted in NC on Saturday
Do not underestimate the growing wave of black voter support for DJT.
We (2) voted early this morning in NC. No lines at all. Walked right in and voted. I was number 1867. They gave us pens to mark ballot (COVID19 I suppose) and I’m keeping pen as souvenir. Also the “I voted” sticker said: I voted 2020 Presidential Election” Yes, that too will be a political souvenir!
I pray that Pres Trump and all Republicans win.
Rasmussen Reports
@Rasmussen_Poll
Morning Reader Data Points:
National Daily Black Likely Voter Job Approval For @POTUS
- October 19-23, 2020
Mon 10/19 - 25%
Tue 10/20 - 24%
Wed 10/21 - 31%
Thu 10/22 - 37%
Fri 10/23 - 46%
7:45 AM · Oct 23, 2020·Twitter Web App
Good.
Thanks for these updates!
2.57% to flip the Broward pink on the advantage map. Palm Beach about to enter 5%.
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