Posted on 10/11/2020 8:58:29 PM PDT by MagillaX
The Mainstream Media is at it again claiming that there is no way President Trump can win the election because of the polls. Anyone remember 2016? Steve Deace breaks down why these polls don't make ANY sense. WATCH more Steve Deace: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-RAJ...
(Excerpt) Read more at youtube.com ...
If only you had hit the “enter” key after pasting that link, we could have easily clicked on it and watched the video. Now we have to copy and paste it into our browser to watch it.
They are juicing the polls to cover the tidal wave of vote fraud that is coming.
The plan is to wind by vote fraud. The democrat infiltrated the entire system. Computers and all.
Andrew Gillium (D) will win by 7%
Bill Nelson (D) will win by 7%
Who is the governor of Florinda today?
And who won that US senate elections?
Yup.
GIGO
If you feed lies into your computer model as assumptions, you get lies coming out of your computer as conclusions.
I have a theory as to what is happening—I call it the “Bangladesh Effect”.
Let us suppose that one of us, who knows nothing about the electorate of Bangladesh, were asked to conduct polling of Bangladesh voters for their next presidential election.
How would we decide who to poll?
How would we decide how to weigh the results?
We would have no clue—and the effort would be a joke.
So, my argument is that the pollster organizations, and the mass media elites that hire them, know as little about the actual American electorate as you and I know about the Bangladesh electorate.
The pollsters live in a left-wing bubble, and have no clue what the average American believes or what motivates them to turn out to vote.
A good example of this was the issue of illegal immigration.
Pollsters would do “issue polling” and give respondents an opportunity to list the most important issues to them. Up until very recently illegal immigration was not one of the choices. Therefore it was ignored by the mass media as an important issue. Worse than that, the term “illegal alien” was actually banned by Associated Press for media outlets in 2013 in their style-book, so the poll question could never even be asked correctly.
So, what are the “hidden issues” the pollsters don’t know about today?
I would argue there are three new issues that they do not understand:
—Covid restrictions and their impact on the economy
—Cancel culture and big tech and big corporate bias and limits on free speech
—Rioting in the cities that makes law and order and support for the police critical
The President is on the winning side of these issues, the Democrats are on the losing side of these issues—and the pollsters will never see it coming.
MSM Polls are Propaganda. Meant to influence opinions NOT to reflect it. The sooner you learn this fact the better off you will be.
Cyber warfare is a two way street. Good guys can play it better than the bad guys.
Pollsters no longer have the ability to conduct accurate polls.
Response rates have plummeted. They averaged 6% in 2016 because of increased cell phone usage and reporters wondered if pollsters could still conduct accurate polls at those low levels. As we know, they couldn’t.
Trafalgar (who displays response rates...most pollsters don’t) is now down to 1 - 2%. Pollsters are having a very difficult time getting “representative samples.”
Most people won’t answer their phones. Republicans are 5 times more likely to not participate in polls generally.
Recent study reported 11% of republicans, 10% of independents and 5% of democrats will not disclose who they are voting for.
Pretty safe bet most of them plan to vote for Trump since the media has demonized Trump supporters.
____________________
Very interesting twitter response by Rich Baris (People Pundit who is finishing a Pennsylvania poll today) to a Scott Adams post.
Peoples_Pundit
@Peoples_Pundit
We now have two battleground states with large percentages of voters — who skew heavily conservative, with only liberals being the exception — telling us they are uncomfortable revealing to pollsters their political beliefs, such as for whom they intend to vote.
Scott Adams
@ScottAdamsSays
Democrats have gaslighted themselves by scaring Trump supporters into silence and then believing the polls they made worthless by scaring Trump supporters into silence. Face with tear
I identify as Bangladeshi.
I agree with your post—it adds a new and important piece to the 2020 puzzle.
Trafalgar uses proprietary methods to try to get participation by “shy” Trump voters and they do get better results than most of the others. But, even they admit that they don’t get them all and they think there are more of them this year than even in 2016.
Cahaly says that some voters say they are voting for Biden but based on how they answered other questions like do you approve of fracking (they do); do you support strict constructionist supreme court justices (they do); do you support defunding the police (they don’t.) he believes they are lying about voting for Biden but he still records them as Biden voters...:-)
Said his polls show Trump is doing great with Hispanic and black voters. His polls predict mid to high teens for black vote. Said Trump actually got 10% of the black vote in 2016 even though exit polls showed 8%. Said voters who don’t want to disclose they are voting for Trump over the phone sure don’t want to admit it to a kid with a clip board after voting...:-)
They expect Trump to win the electoral college by 30-59 votes.
I’ve been thinking about all this—the shy Trump voters—how then are the campaigns’ “internal polls” any better than any of the other polls?
I know I avoid all polls, and wouldn’t know or be able to differentiate between a magical “internal poll” and news polls.
what is disgusting is how the FakeNewsMSM just goes along with the fake polls - knowing how wrong they were in 2016.
all those MSM resources, and they can’t even look at the internals! evil.
Thanks!!
The MSM polls are intended to discourage Trump voters to keep them at home on election day(s).
Don’t play into their hands.
Internal polls don’t pick them all up either. Remember in most cases they are not answering their phones so no one is going to get those. Trump did not know on election day that he was going to win.
And prior to the media demonizing Trump and his supporters there wasn’t this large discrepancy between who will talk and who won’t. Now that responders are down to 1% that requires that the other 99% who will not respond feel the same way as the 1% who will. But, that is no longer true, so their data is useless.
Some of the silly Biden +12 polls used turnout models projecting a 30% increase in voters, totally unrealistic. Internal polls are better designed. And they are definitely more honest since the object is to get the data that is most useful to the campaign.
I wonder if the type of people who are hiding out from the virus at home, a little lonely and fearful, would be more likely to answer polls.
That would seem to be single older people who are Democrats, I’d say.
But I guess the pollsters keep calling until they get more Republicans to answer—and maybe they are single, older and lonely and fearful too, and turning away from Trump because of their fear.
Trump has now shown there is less need to be fearful—will be great when all 25 White House infections resolve quickly (hopefully)—will be anectodal evidence that the virus is not be be so feared.
Good pollsters don’t just poll based on D. vs. R. They drill down to try to get the right representation so that the results will be more accurate.
From Peoples Pundit:
“It’s not rural vs. burbs vs. urban, and not about party ID. It’s about adequate samples for subgroups re: region/geography and education.”
I get so many surveys from work alone (every time I call the IT help desk, they survey me after!), after staying in a hotel, etc that I have survey fatigue and I very, very rarely answer them anymore unless it’s something I really care about and want to give feedback about. In my college days in the late 1980s I was such a helpful volunteer for surveys! No more.
I’d bet many other busy working people have survey fatigue too. I’m probably surveyed at least twice a week!
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