Posted on 10/11/2020 1:46:03 PM PDT by Repeal 16-17
With Election Day less than a month away, we look at which party will likely control the White House, Senate and House in 2020… and what to watch for on Election Night.
Currently, the major polls give former Vice President Biden more than a 9-point lead nationally against President Trump – according to RealClearPolitics National Average. And the Predictit markets imply a 67% probability of Biden winning on November 3rd. Additionally, those markets suggest that Democrats will win both the Senate and House (66% and 88% probabilities, respectively). Quite simply, it appears that a Blue Wave is fast approaching, something which the market has not only priced in, but has successfully digested as a favorable narrative for risk assets.
It would be easy to simply close the books and call the November contest over. But, of course, the major polls were all wrong in 2016; notably about the presidential race.
In the following Election Review from Camelot Portfolios, we look at what some of the polling firms that called 2016 correctly are seeing today. "Shocking", their polling suggests that President Trump will be re-elected, either narrowly or by a large margin. Therefore, as Camelot notes, "capital allocators today cannot easily assume next month’s results."
(Excerpt) Read more at thedailycoin.org ...
Boris in London seems to also be expecting Biden to win.
The natural tendency is to go by the majority of polls.
Gird your loins. We are in for a rough ride.
My only worry is that the Democrats' cheating will reach monumental levels, even for them. They're busy manufacturing Biden votes as I write this. I hope there'll be plenty of Republican poll watchers on Election Day. If we had an honest election, Trump would win by a huge margin.
Not really a shocking result at all.
Same silly polls from 2016 saying the same nonsense.
Same empirical evidence as 2016 again shows tremendous and spectacular support for Trump, and on the other hand, hardly a hand clap from a few supporters for biden.
And I’d say the support fro Trump is even more significant from Hispanics and blacks this time around.
the democrats are TOAST and they know it...
Again, most of these polls that the media trumpets continue to oversample the Democrat number to one degree or another and expect these people to actually go out and vote.
Our side lies, tells them they won’t vote for Trump.
The Left lies and tells them they are for certain going to
be at the polls to vote for the Leftist.
Our side shows up and votes for Trump.
Their side doesn’t show up.
The Constitution was written to have checks and balances where ambition cancels out ambition. The RATs are going to unbalance this by packing the courts, ending the filabuster, making new States like DC where they dominate, and a whole bunch of other moves which their lawless judges will rubber-stamp. Venezuela here we come!
If that happens, and turns the election result, then they will have won the battle, but will quite literally lose the war.
The cheating is going to ridiculously obvious when there is a 600% increase in voting and 130% of votes in counties are cast for Biden/Harris.
I believe Trump has not really started his campaign. We have had stutter steps but nothing big yet. I also think it starts tomorrow.
They seem to be targeting GOP voting districts by zip code and stealing or mailing erroneous ballots or not mailing them at all
When people show up in person they’ll be told they already voted by mail
The people have no control over this corruption
The USPS seems to be helping this
Oh, real clear politics. That’s reliable.
British Prime Ministers don’t have a very good record on predicting American election results. Tony Blair famously went to bed in on election night 2004 convinced John Kerry had won. Bush won easily. In 2016, every single British political leader including Theresa May the Prime Minister was absolutely convinced Hilary Clinton would win, and totally ignored Trump. Theresa May had to make a quick trip to Washington to make up with Trump after the elections. They tend to believe that fake news media in Britain too much. You’d think they’d have learned something from Bexit.
Plus Trump is taller than Biden
“Biden more than a 9-point lead”
He and Kamala will absolutely ruin the U.S. if they win.
Even if CNN and Fox refuse to call it on Election Day - I think we’ll know.
If Trump is winning, they should at least call enough of the bright red states to get Trump to a floor of 250 - then he only needs a couple swing states - which they won’t call for a month.
But we will know “enough” by the time we go to bed.
I don’t really care what CNN or Bret Baier says about it.
2020...thy name is voter fraud!
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