Posted on 09/30/2020 9:41:29 AM PDT by bort
"In North Carolina and Georgia, for instance, one in five voters who have already cast ballots didn't even vote in 2016, McDonald said. Mail ballot requests are up astronomically in dozens of states; the figure is 350% in Michigan, for instance, when compared to 2016.
In North Carolina, 17 times more people have requested ballots than four years ago; in Wisconsin, requests were up by a factor of 12, according to internal RNC data.
The fact that more Democrats have not just requested their ballots but have also turned them in is also a reversal of the trend in prior elections, McDonald said.
It means one of two things, he added: That Democrats are more enthusiastic and are filling out their ballots quickly, or that Republicans are holding onto their ballots despite requesting them, out of concern over potential fraud.
"It could be that they're listening to Donald Trump, and even though they are requesting a ballot, they are going to vote in person if they vote at all," he said.
Additionally, younger voters are a much smaller share of the voters who have already cast ballots so far than was the case overall in 2016 - leading him to believe that most young people, the majority of whom will support Biden, will vote much closer to Nov. 3 or on Election Day itself.
"I can't say with certainty that this is going to carry through," he added. "But everything that's happened over the past couple of decades, and our understanding of how people vote, is being upended in this election."
(Excerpt) Read more at theday.com ...
"Additionally, younger voters are a much smaller share of the voters who have already cast ballots so far than was the case overall in 2016 - leading him to believe that most young people, the majority of whom will support Biden, will vote much closer to Nov. 3 or on Election Day itself."
Professor McDonald, who is a left-wing flak but is often cited as a non-partisan election guru, tries to put a spin on the dearth of younger voters in the mail-in ballots. The reality is that at this point it is unclear whether the Democrats' big edge in mail in voting is actually a cannibalization of their in-person voting or a show of enthusiasm. There is evidence in the North Carolina numbers that African Americans are lagging in mail-in turnout and that the bulk of their mail-ins are from super-voters who voted in 2016 in-person and are just switching to mail because the Democrats are pushing mail-ins. BTW, this explains why Trump was "the full New York" last night in the debate: He wanted to get Biden to hang himself on the Green New Deal, Medicare for All, Crime Bill, etc. The mail-in data suggest that Biden is lagging in young voters and black voters, and Biden's cave on these progressive issues will continue to depress their turnout, IMHO. Discuss...
The Dems are desperately cannibalizing their votes to gain temporary control of the narrative.
Who says all those democrat ballots are for Biden?
They have the Karen vote locked up. I am voting in person.
BTW, this explains why Trump was “the full New York” last night in the debate: He wanted to get Biden to hang himself on the Green New Deal, Medicare for All, Crime Bill, etc. The mail-in data suggest that Biden is lagging in young voters and black voters, and Biden’s cave on these progressive issues will continue to depress their turnout, IMHO.
I would have paid good money to be the invisible guy monitoring the liberal Focus Groups with real Hispanic and Black voters during the debate.
Which is probably the reason so many liberals are saying no more debates.
Biden’s campaign has already confirmed that he will do the next 2 debates.
If he had backed out Trump would have said he was afraid after last night. Biden was sort of backed into a corner.
Great tagline!:
silverleaf: (A live Biden speech is like a solar eclipse: rare, and leaves everyone in the dark)
Every one of them was registered GOP. In June.
They see early vote favoring D’s so they think they’re winning. They don’t realize D’s ALWAYS win early vote. If Biden isn’t up by 300k going into election day in FL he’s done.
According to FReeper Larry Schwikart:
https://mobile.twitter.com/LarrySchweikart/status/1310706788962983937
Last time Ds were up 90,000 coming into Election Day, lost by 150,000.
Trump will get probably 100,000 more in 2020; because of black defection, Hispanics, & 30% shortfall in students Biden will have 150,000 fewer.
Republicans are voting in person on election day. We do not our ballots tossed in the trash.
It’s a matter of principle that Trump voters want to vote in-person, as an FU to the Karens.
pfft....it doesn’t worry me. Voter fraud worries me more than this.
And realistically, a mail in ballot is NOT a secret ballot....or am I missing something.
On Election Day, be a VIP (Vote In Person)
Maybe, just maybe, this might mean they aren't voting for Pedo Joe at all. Hmmmm??
Premise 1: the Dems are crushing mail in/early voting and it bodes well for enthusiasm. The in person turnout will be as always and they will crush,
Premise 2: the Dems are crushing early voting because they encouraged their base to vote by mail. They will not get an in person turnout on top of a mail-in turnout.
Each is plausible. But my sense of this tells me the 2nd is more likely for several reasons. First, if they can’t be bothered to mail it in, why would it be a given that they will show up. Second, the Dems are now punching in person voting. I think this is because they know the mail in margins they need and they are not getting them. Third, you simply can’t inspire voters by running a basement campaign.
Could be wrong. We will see.
Democrats voting for Trump
If he had backed out Trump would have said he was afraid after last night. Biden was sort of backed into a corner.
I wonder what the end will be of the discussion of the wire he was wearing. How will it affect the next debate?
I am a registered Republican and will be voting early once it opens here which is October 13th.
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