"Additionally, younger voters are a much smaller share of the voters who have already cast ballots so far than was the case overall in 2016 - leading him to believe that most young people, the majority of whom will support Biden, will vote much closer to Nov. 3 or on Election Day itself."
Professor McDonald, who is a left-wing flak but is often cited as a non-partisan election guru, tries to put a spin on the dearth of younger voters in the mail-in ballots. The reality is that at this point it is unclear whether the Democrats' big edge in mail in voting is actually a cannibalization of their in-person voting or a show of enthusiasm. There is evidence in the North Carolina numbers that African Americans are lagging in mail-in turnout and that the bulk of their mail-ins are from super-voters who voted in 2016 in-person and are just switching to mail because the Democrats are pushing mail-ins. BTW, this explains why Trump was "the full New York" last night in the debate: He wanted to get Biden to hang himself on the Green New Deal, Medicare for All, Crime Bill, etc. The mail-in data suggest that Biden is lagging in young voters and black voters, and Biden's cave on these progressive issues will continue to depress their turnout, IMHO. Discuss...
The Dems are desperately cannibalizing their votes to gain temporary control of the narrative.
Who says all those democrat ballots are for Biden?
BTW, this explains why Trump was “the full New York” last night in the debate: He wanted to get Biden to hang himself on the Green New Deal, Medicare for All, Crime Bill, etc. The mail-in data suggest that Biden is lagging in young voters and black voters, and Biden’s cave on these progressive issues will continue to depress their turnout, IMHO.
I would have paid good money to be the invisible guy monitoring the liberal Focus Groups with real Hispanic and Black voters during the debate.
Which is probably the reason so many liberals are saying no more debates.
They see early vote favoring D’s so they think they’re winning. They don’t realize D’s ALWAYS win early vote. If Biden isn’t up by 300k going into election day in FL he’s done.
According to FReeper Larry Schwikart:
https://mobile.twitter.com/LarrySchweikart/status/1310706788962983937
Last time Ds were up 90,000 coming into Election Day, lost by 150,000.
Trump will get probably 100,000 more in 2020; because of black defection, Hispanics, & 30% shortfall in students Biden will have 150,000 fewer.
pfft....it doesn’t worry me. Voter fraud worries me more than this.
And realistically, a mail in ballot is NOT a secret ballot....or am I missing something.
Maybe, just maybe, this might mean they aren't voting for Pedo Joe at all. Hmmmm??
Premise 1: the Dems are crushing mail in/early voting and it bodes well for enthusiasm. The in person turnout will be as always and they will crush,
Premise 2: the Dems are crushing early voting because they encouraged their base to vote by mail. They will not get an in person turnout on top of a mail-in turnout.
Each is plausible. But my sense of this tells me the 2nd is more likely for several reasons. First, if they can’t be bothered to mail it in, why would it be a given that they will show up. Second, the Dems are now punching in person voting. I think this is because they know the mail in margins they need and they are not getting them. Third, you simply can’t inspire voters by running a basement campaign.
Could be wrong. We will see.
Democrats voting for Trump
For Florida in 2016, 2.558 million registered Democrats voted early and 2.471 million registered Republicans voted early. Democrats had an early vote advantage in 2016 and will have an early vote advantage in 2020. But Trump still won in 2016.
“Early surge of Democrat voting worries GOP”
As long as they only vote once...oh wait, wrong universe again.
People voting is good.
If they are not legit, we should have poll workers checking them.
It is pretty simple.
Democrats are more likely than Republicans to watch and believe the fake news. They’re more likely to be living in fear of C19 and more likely to stay locked down for in-person voting. (one explanation I’ve seen and makes sense imo)
So 20% are from people registered to vote, but that didn't vote (at least) in 2016. Just like what would happen if someone else fraudulently requested and voted a ballot for someone else, hoping the victimized voter wouldn't notice.
Surprising that in North Carolina as of today only 3% of registered blacks have voted, while 4.4% of registered whites have. I would have thought that since Dems are pushing voting by mail the groups that usually heavily support Dems would be ahead in the returned mail ballots.
Larry, can you shed any light?
The Washington Post, without any proof, said....blah, blah, blah...
And nobody listened.
In 2016, MacDonald was singing the “early voting trends greatly favor a Clinton victory” all the way to the grave. I hate his spin.