Premise 1: the Dems are crushing mail in/early voting and it bodes well for enthusiasm. The in person turnout will be as always and they will crush,
Premise 2: the Dems are crushing early voting because they encouraged their base to vote by mail. They will not get an in person turnout on top of a mail-in turnout.
Each is plausible. But my sense of this tells me the 2nd is more likely for several reasons. First, if they can’t be bothered to mail it in, why would it be a given that they will show up. Second, the Dems are now punching in person voting. I think this is because they know the mail in margins they need and they are not getting them. Third, you simply can’t inspire voters by running a basement campaign.
Could be wrong. We will see.
This is not complicated—Dems are more likely to be afraid of Covid and therefore in person voting...