Posted on 09/02/2020 8:53:34 AM PDT by yesthatjallen
President Trump has gained 9 points on Joe Biden in Pennsylvania over the past six weeks, pulling into a statistical tie with the Democratic nominee in a key battleground state, according to a new poll.
The latest Monmouth University survey finds Biden at 49 percent and Trump at 45 percent among all registered voters in the state. That’s within the poll’s 4.9-percentage-point margin of error and a far closer race than Monmouth found in July, when Biden led 53 to 40 among registered voters.
The race is even closer among likely voters.
When Monmouth forecasts a high turnout election, Biden leads Trump 49 to 46. In a model reflecting lower turnout, Biden’s lead is only 1 point, at 48 to 47. In July, Biden led by 10 points in the high turnout model and by 7 points in the low turnout model.
“This is really a game of inches,” said Monmouth pollster Patrick Murray. “The Trump campaign is looking to peel off a little bit of Biden support here and a little bit there. It may be working, despite the fact that Pennsylvania voters personally like the Democrat more, although this gap has narrowed.”
The race has tightened as men in the state have swung wildly in favor of Trump. The president leads by 19 points among men, compared to his 2-point advantage in July.
SNIP
(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...
I’ve only see a couple Biden signs and bumper stickers myself. Rarely even see anything while driving the I-405 corridor from Lynnwood to Bellevue out here in Washington.
Monmouth poll is a joke and has been since I can remember. should never even be reported on, because it is that big of a joke.
I’m a data guy so for fun I performed a simple analysis using the latest registration numbers of PA and compared them to 2016.
Basically, I determined the percentage vote county by county that Trump and Hillary received by Reps and Dems, respectively, then applied those same percentages to the latest registration numbers. Which, by the way, Reps have gained 157,420 over Dems since 2016.
So if the same percentages hold with the updated registration numbers, Trump would win by 148,547 votes. Trump won by 44,292 votes in 2016.
There have been ads running regularly here that show Biden saying that. They are from some energy industry lobbying group, not the Trump campaign.
I’m in a large college town and there is a surprisingly low number of Biden signs, compared to the large # of Hillary in ‘16. Sprinkled in w/ a few Trump signs is an unusual # of people flying the American flag. They are Trumpers, IMHO, who would rather not put a sign in their lawn.
Statistical Tie = Trump is ahead
Monmouth University is right up the street from me, a ten minute drive. Their polls have always oversampled RATs.
Yes, really that means Trump is up by ten.
No, the margin of ballot harvesting is unknown, not even necessarily limited by the number of registered voters in the state.
While it is an improvement over their prior poll, a 49-46 result with a 4.9% MOE results in a 76% probability of the leader actually winning, which is hardly a "tie."
However, in my model this poll does increase President Trump's probability of winning Pennsylvania from 6.6% to 11.7%.
-PJ
A big clue would be 110% voter turnout. :)
I know of two houses with BiteMe signs and a McGrath for senate here in southeast KY. One of them briefly had a BLM sign for a couple of days and it vanished. I haven’t seen any Trump signs but lots and lots of Trump flags hanging on stoops and flying from vehicles and bumper stickers.
The main supporters of BiteMe in my small town are the public school teachers which is to be expected them being communist and all.
The Economist/YouGov poll is 1,500 adults that is a whopping D+15! They show Biden 51-40.
The Investor's Business Daily poll is not releasing internals. TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence shifted to an online poll amid the coronavirus pandemic. TechnoMetrica President Raghavan Mayur notes, "Panel samples are convenience samples and are not probability samples and hence the concept of margin of error does not apply."
The Rasmussen demographics are behind a paywall.
I guess we'll have to wait for more state polls.
-PJ
By high turnout they mean the black turnout, which is not going to happen for Biden
Means PT is up by 2.
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