or otherwise this could easily occur....
Posted on 08/17/2020 6:37:01 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
A brand new poll from CNN, not known for favoring anything about Donald Trump or Republicans, is shocking the Biden campaign. It shows Biden’s national lead among registered voters shrinking to 4%, down from 14% in early June. Keep in mind that polling registered voters generally favors Democrats, while polling likely voters typically adds support to Republicans.
Another key point to keep in mind is that national vote totals mean nothing. Democrats pile up huge majorities in blue states that go to waste in terms of Electoral College voting. All that matters are the state-by-state elections. And as CNN’s summary of the poll concedes:
Across 15 battleground states, the survey finds Biden has the backing of 49% of registered voters, while Trump lands at 48%.
The pool of battleground states in this poll includes more that Trump carried in 2016 (10) than were won by Hillary Clinton (5), reflecting the reality that the President's campaign is more on defense than offense across the states. Taken together, though, they represent a more Republican-leaning playing field than the nation as a whole.
CNN also flags a huge shift among male voters, from an even split to a 16 point margin for Trump:
The movement in the poll among voters nationwide since June is concentrated among men (they split about evenly in June, but now 56% back Trump, 40% Biden), those between the ages of 35 and 64 (they tilt toward Trump now, but were Biden-leaning in June) and independents (in June, Biden held a 52% to 41% lead, but now it's a near even 46% Biden to 45% Trump divide).
Polling expert Richard Baehr speculates that CNN has adjusted its polling assumptions:
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
Which means Trump wins in a landslide.
Ask President Hillary about poll numbers.
Don’t be fooled — this is manufactured to show them close, and then next week Biden will show a 10-15 point bump from Harris VP and convention.
CNN is spewing BS again, as always.
Yeah, but the dead and non-legal voters will continue mailing in ballots via the trunks of cars for as long as it takes after the election to push slo' joe to the top.
But, but, but, they have that CBS YouGov “poll” skewed heavily “liberal” that seriously undercounts “moderates” giving Biden/Harris the 10 point lead.
After the Harris pick, support for the ticket has become flaccid.
Joe should never get above The 37% , LOL
Early on people are reflecting the media spin. As voting approaches people begin to form their own opinion.
Not all the MSM has jumped on the bandwagon yet.
On GMA this am they preached that Biden was up double digits in a poll of Registered voters. However, Trump was way ahead in voter sentiment.
Not likely voters. They did not give any specifics of their ABC News poll. It was just to try and push voters to not bother going to the polls.
FYI, the new talking point is all about how Trump is purposely defunding the USPS so that peoples mail in ballots are not counted.
In a couple weeks, the polls will supposedly widen again to reflect a convention bounce.
It's become so predictable that it's surprising that they keep doing this every election cycle. The key to understanding the deception of the polls is looking at the breakdown of the sample.
Keep in mind that polling registered voters generally favors Democrats, while polling likely voters typically adds support to Republicans.
+++++
This is not a general rule. It is an absolute rule. It it is the reason the media uses registered or (worse) adult polls during the election cycle rather than the much more accurate Likely Voters.
Election seasons are like Christmas for the media. Candidates must pay for their advertising at full rate and in advance. Thus it’s important that the polls (most of them media-generated or media-supported) show a close race all the way to the election, so both sides will buy and buy.
How many days/hours since Biden announced his running mate has he ducked media questions and has failed to provide open media access?
Seriously, what is wrong with a candidate for President that has not taken media questions and wide ranging unrehearsed questions at that?
Biden must be in horrible mental shape.
Simply put: PDJT=jobs. Joe and ho=mobs. Make a choice.
I laugh at poll watchers.
or otherwise this could easily occur....
Well, make it likely voters and he's down one point, making it a wash.
Consider that it's CNN, spotting him another 10 points or so by weighting the poll away from Republicans... uh oh.
Once the convention's done, don't be surprised if Joe suddenly gets bad news from the doctor and the real candidate is revealed.
No. Registered voters always favor Democrats, especially in the Motor Voter era. This suits the purpose of polls at this stage of the campaign. These polls are intended to influence opinions. Many voters are more than willing to go along with the crowd. They are going to vote for the leader among the popularity contests which is all these polls are.
Likely voter polls general kick in after Labor Day, but remember that all public polls are paid for by the media or by some partisan group. They are paying to get a result that supports their agenda. All media polls and most partisan funded polls support Democrats. Private polls, commissioned by campaigns and other people who need to know how voters will actually behave, are expensive and are focused at the county or precint level. That's the only way to get accurate results. We never see these results.
Instead of watching polls, watch the candidates, they have much better information than the media or us. Right now, the Democrats are behaving like they are behind.
These are people I know personally and that family members know very well.
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