If This Poll Is Accurate, Trump Will Be Reelected Easily

pjmedia.com ^ | 8/2/2020 | matt margolis

[bitt]

President Donald Trump’s job approval hit its highest level in more than five months in Rasmussen’s Daily Presidential Tracking Poll from Friday, reports CNSNews.

According to the poll, 50 percent of likely voters approve of Trump, with 39 percent strongly approving. Disapproval was at 48 percent, with 43 percent strongly disapproving.

Trump’s approval in this poll was boosted by black voters. According to Rasmussen, a slight majority of black voters approve of Trump, and a higher percentage of minority voters approve of the president.

Two months ago, black likely voter approval for President Trump in the Rasmussen Reports daily tracking poll was at 40 percent. In August 2019, black voter approval for Trump stood at 26 percent.

Trump received 8 percent of the African American vote in 2016.

I was very much skeptical of Rasmussen’s 40 percent approval number two months ago. Approval that high from black voters would make Trump’s reelection all but certain. While I question the results of this poll, I do believe that it is possible that it could be more accurately capturing the trend of black approval for Trump. If Trump’s approval from likely black voters was at 26 percent a year ago, it is certainly possible that the economic improvements black Americans experienced prior to the pandemic could have resulted in a surge of support.

I don’t see it hitting 40 percent or even 26 percent, let alone 50 percent. But is it possible that Trump could get 10 to 12 percent of the black vote in November? I can see that.

Rasmussen was one of the most accurate pollsters in 2016, but even they urge caution in putting too much stock in these numbers. “Fact Check: True,” they tweeted. “However since this is represented in only 1 overnight polling

[nikos1121]

Black men identify with Trump. They’re not going to vote for Biden. Let’s be real here.

[central_va]

The only poll that matters is in November.

[SoCal Pubbie]

According to the agreement it won’t take effect until enough states enter it to total 270, so legal or not it’s not going to happen this year. Then again the language of contracts and agreements no longer seems to matter if the objective is to derail Trump.

[knarf]

If this poll is accurate.

Using only common sense, a pretty crappy memory and the close observation of WHO is pro Trump and WHO is not, it is quite obvious that we are experiencing the 2016 election cycle all over again.

Right up to election day, hillary had Trump by (choose whatever number you want .... THEY did ) ... percentage points.

And we have been suffering ever since at the hands of the losers.

[napscoordinator]

I heard voting begins in some states September 4th! That to me is ridiculous. At the very least they could cut off mailing ballots 10 days before the election. It’s ridiculous that in two months voters can’t get their ballots mailed in time.

[redangus]

And most if not all are democrat states anyway. I’m hoping he wins the popular vote. If he does these states will hold a special session in November to reconsider this resolution before their electors vote.

[SamAdams76]

It's amusing (and a little sad) to see how so many conservatives allow themselves to be played for fools every four years with these silly daily tracking polls done by the MSM (who hate conservatives and do all they can to sway elections to the Democrats).

The typical presidential year m.o. is to show the Democrat nominee ahead of the Republican nominee by "double digits" all summer long. This is intended to demoralize the conservatives and get them all a-flutter. It works like a charm every time.

Then as we get closer to Election Day, the polls begin to "narrow" and we get back to more of a "horse race". But still, the advantage always goes to the Democrat.

Finally, the weekend before Election Day, the polls pretty much reflect (within 2-3 points) the actuality of the race. This allows the pollsters to save face and claim that they were accurate - setting themselves up nicely for the next big swindle four years later. This is how they play us like violins.

Anybody with an ounce of common sense can see that Joe Biden is the lamest presidential nominee this side of George McGovern. The notion that Biden has been "crushing" Trump in the battlegrounds these past few weeks from his basement are utterly ludicrous.

Freeper LS has a pretty lengthy thread on Twitter from yesterday on this (@larryschweikart)

[GailA]

Election day is only pole that counts. WANT TO KEEP AMERICA A REPUBLIC, VOTE TRUMP.

[cincinnati65]

I was recently polled over the phone, and one of the questions was related to my determination to vote in the next election -- very determined, slightly determined, etc.

My response: "Son, if I have to crawl on my hands and knees to my polling place, I'll be casting a ballot in this year's election."

[LS]

But even then, they miss WAY outside the range.

In 2016:
WI AVERAGE error was 6
OH AVERAGE error was 4

They were all off on Hawley and Braun’s margin of victory in 2018

They were ALL off on DeSantis and Scott. One poll one week out had Gillum’s Island by 11. That’s a 12 point error.

These are all outside the “margin of error.”

[Freedom'sWorthIt]

How can you say a rigged election is not going to happen?

The vote fraudsters are I am assuming right now plotting how to dump their millions of fraudulent votes into the mess and either outright cheat the results or cause such chaos that the results can’t be finalized for weeks if not months after Nov 3.

But I hope you are right that somehow these devious plans will fail....I just don’t see how.

[zaxtres]

That pact will not be legal, because the states that adhere to it have much fewer than 270 electoral votes collectively.

---

That is the stupidest reason for the pact to be illegal “because they have fewer than 270 Electoral Votes”. Now had you said the Pact was illegal because it was against the Constitution because Congress did not approve it, then that would be a valid reason. However, because it does not rise to the level of being over 270 votes, is just a plain stupid reason.

Besides, they don’t need to have 270, just enough to put their candidate over the 270 mark.

Thus far the Pact between the states has held and no legal challenge as of yet. The states can also get around the Pact because each individual state voted for the legislation individually. In the legislation they did not state this was part of a Pact. It’s kind of like banning smoking in bars. First one state did it then another and then another. No pact all states followed the first state. So that is the loophole.

[Candor7]

matt margolis approaches the Presidents re-election certainty as if its untouchable.

He should be celebrating that America’s militant collective of minority radical socialists will not be able to bring Venezuela to you.

What a wimp!

[nhbob1]

Trump won’t win Cali, but there were multiple Repub Congressional seats lost due to ballot harvesting. These need to be recovered and R ballot harvesting (legal) needs to be done in those districts