The typical presidential year m.o. is to show the Democrat nominee ahead of the Republican nominee by "double digits" all summer long. This is intended to demoralize the conservatives and get them all a-flutter. It works like a charm every time.
Then as we get closer to Election Day, the polls begin to "narrow" and we get back to more of a "horse race". But still, the advantage always goes to the Democrat.
Finally, the weekend before Election Day, the polls pretty much reflect (within 2-3 points) the actuality of the race. This allows the pollsters to save face and claim that they were accurate - setting themselves up nicely for the next big swindle four years later. This is how they play us like violins.
Anybody with an ounce of common sense can see that Joe Biden is the lamest presidential nominee this side of George McGovern. The notion that Biden has been "crushing" Trump in the battlegrounds these past few weeks from his basement are utterly ludicrous.
Freeper LS has a pretty lengthy thread on Twitter from yesterday on this (@larryschweikart)
But even then, they miss WAY outside the range.
In 2016:
WI AVERAGE error was 6
OH AVERAGE error was 4
They were all off on Hawley and Braun’s margin of victory in 2018
They were ALL off on DeSantis and Scott. One poll one week out had Gillum’s Island by 11. That’s a 12 point error.
These are all outside the “margin of error.”