Posted on 07/28/2020 7:05:21 PM PDT by rintintin
At the end of the day, it's only July, there are a lot of unprecedented events happening, polling is more accurate than its critics think but probably *not* as accurate as it was in say 2004-2012—and if we wind up in a photo finish, Trump likely wins b/c of the Electoral College.
Nate Silver: A Legend in His Own Mind
BINGO !!
He has a shot at NV too.
Translation: Trump is ahead.
Biden's going to lose -- but Kamala Harris (looks like she'll be his running mate) will refuse to accept Biden's concession, claiming the usual racist BS.
AMEN!!!!
The dems are going to do all they can to steal it and if they lose they will claim we stole it. Hillary/2016 all over again.
Silver and his whole website have been awful in “predicting” future behavior by voters. Silver is probably the best of his ragtag group of statistics hacks at spinning a bad prediction (78% Hillary wins) into a less wrong result (I told you there was a 23% chance Trump wins, and look at all this margin of error stuff). He doesn’t actually put nearly the amount of work into his “models” that he claims, they all seem to be no more complicated than simple averages of other polling data with all of their biases and inaccuracies carried over.
They have been remarkably successful in explaining away those failures after the fact and continuing to get paid despite them, in part because they keep writing articles that give people who want a certain electoral outcome (Dems winning in a landslide) hope that it will happen if they run the numbers enough times.
This election, like every other, will come down to enthusiasm and organization. Nobody is enthusiastic about Biden, but there are a fair number of very enthusiastic anti-trump people out there. Right now they are fragmented in their support and the longer they don’t have a candidate to feel confident in, the harder it will be to get them organized and motivated. Polling may reflect that, or it may be pushed like it often is to hide or manipulate the perception in the public, probably through fear.
And he assures us polling is an honest and honorable profession (that gets things wrong once in awhile)
EVERY PRESIDENT WINS BECAUSE OF THE Electoral College... IT’S HOW WE DETERMINE WHO WON THE RACE.
Baseball teams win based on runs. Why is this so difficult for liberal useful idiots to understand.
In 1988, at about this time, Dukakis was 17 points “ahead” of GHW Bush. The Duke was a Bozo fun circus “almost winner”, finishing only 7,000,000 votes behind Bush 41.
To Silver’s credit, the 78% figure he gave for the probability of a Clinton victory in 2016 was the lowest number I saw in the media at the time — by far.
I wouldnt worry about it Nate. Trump is going to win in a landslide.
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