Trump will win Yuge (Saturbray)

I will praise thee with uprightness of heart, when I shall have learned thy righteous judgments. Psalm 119:7 (King James Version)

Once again, we have the analysts quoting these phony polls as if they were gospel when they have been proved over and over to have no correlation to election results. You would have a better chance of accuracy of throwing darts blindfolded at a spinning dartboard since it would take out the obvious bias. When you have no idea of what the actual turnout will be for the candidates then you have no idea of the outcome and by all appearances Trump has the motivated angry voters.

I started my writing hobby by making colorful posts on my beloved Oregon Ducks and people were always axing me how I was able to predict wins and seasons so well. One year in particular the entire board and local sports talk radio were predicting a disastrous year for the basketball team and most picked between 8 and 10 wins while I was predicting 21. They ended up winning 28 and getting to the Sweet 16.

This was simply one example, but I did it over and over and have always been the most accurate over the years until the board got woke and became unbearable to write for. The reason I was able to beat the experts and negative fans on the board was by going against groupthink. It really was as simple as that and analyze actual facts rather than repeat the groupthought.

Sports analysts are some of the most overpaid weathermen in the business. If you watch them, they all predict exactly the same teams as everyone else and are wrong about 50-55% of the time. If you were to take the average of predictions of the Super Bowl you would find they are wrong as often as they are right at about 50% and these people are paid millions of dollars to be right when you could do the same thing with a coin.

As a professional sports analyst you want to sound intelligent and knowledgeable so when it comes to picking a winner before the game is played you see who everyone else is choosing and you pick that team. Then you decorate the cake with your reasons which are all subjective but sound legitimate and give solid reasons why this player or that will win the game.

Why is it done that way? Simple economics, if you are all right you look like geniuses but if you are all wrong you can simply say you didn’t see the upset coming and you were all shocked. If you are out on a limb by yourself and you are wrong, then you are stupid and the group makes fun of you. After you miss a few out on the limb by yourself you are out of work and looking for a new career. This means you always go with the groupthink leading up to the game and you will all be right or all shocked with the upset since the better team didn't really win.

Back in the day, I was right around 80% with my Ducks since it was a building program and the experts were always picking against them. Even the fans would pick against them to sound so intelligent and above the fray so they can be pleasantly surprised when they win as they stroked their objective chins. I simply had fun predicting the win all the way to the game and when we won, I was able to enjoy it all the more. When we lost it was twice the gut punch since I was truly sold on winning with no doubt about losing.

There is no difference between sports and election analysts other than sports commentators are not usually rooting for one team to win. They never cry on air when the team they predicted to win by a huge margin gets blown out by the upsetting team. Sports analysts will spend days and weeks explaining the strengths of the upsetting team and how the events occurred so the win happened. They do not spend the next year trashing the team and whining about how their team had the game stolen from them.

Pollsters do the same thing; they see what all the other pollsters are showing, and they will make their poll shadow theirs. They are not going to go out on a limb and be an outlier although some are simply pushing a narrative, they are never going to go against the grain so the Dem will always be in the lead if all the others show that. They know they will never have to explain what they got wrong so they make their polls and analysis look and sound like the group so they can all be right or shocked they missed something and all wrong.

Sports gurus will never go out on a limb more than once or twice in their lives for fear of losing face, political talking faces all belong to the same team and are going to echo the same message. To say Trump is going to win reelection will get you out on the smallest of limbs and nobody wants to be out there if the group is right.

How was I able to predict games at 80%, my Ducks won at around 80-90% it was just that the Debbie Downers were more interested in sounding intelligent than truly analyzing the teams. They were more afraid of going against the group and having to really point out strengths and weaknesses than simply repeating the echo chamber and saying how good the favorite was and how they beat such and such a team while ignoring the teams my Ducks had beaten. Back then, every team was good until Oregon beat them and then they were a lousy team since they lost to the Ducks.

You see the same thing in politics. Everyone is assuming Trump is losing and are reading the talking points of why. Even though 2016 should be fresh in their mind they have the same fake polls they used last time and the same polls which are wrong more than 60% worldwide and run around as a gaggle of geese hoping for a DNC win.

The analysts from the Conservative side are so intimidated from being outsiders they will not climb out on that limb and predict a Trump win even when it is staring them in the face. Which swing voter is not better off today than they were under Obama/Biden? That is all that matters.

So once again I am risking my 7 Presidential election streak and officially predicting a Trump reelection. My reasons are the incumbent is hard to beat since who wants to change horses in the middle of a flooded stream? Who would want to ride a dead horse? The economy is doing very well even with the virus and most are going to vote their wallets. The Christian vote is going to come out stronger than it did last time, and blacks are not buying BLM and are going to vote Trump between 30-50% as he goes after them like no Republican ever has.

This is real analysis and not the pap you see by the talking hair. These are real reasons although they need to be pushed with a solid grassroots campaign, but how you can look at these two candidates and not say Trump is the favorite is either pure bias or fear of going going out on that limb. This is as easy as picking my Ducks against overrated Florida State in the Rose Bowl. Who had FSU beaten, and my Ducks were loaded which is why they won 59-20 while I was doing the tomahawk chop in the endzone.

I was the minority who picked against the majority and loved every minute leading up to the game and the win. I also picked Trump to win the minute he gave his speech after coming down the escalator who could read America like no other politician. He talks to the common man and not the pundiots who are offended by that. This is why I picked 44 of 50 states correctly and they were seen crying on the screen the night of the election being wrong on 20 of 50. If these people were picked on accomplishments, they would be replaced but that is not how the media complex works.

As hard as it is you have to ignore the propagandists and realize they are really cowards to not go against the groupthink. Even though they likely have huge doubts listening to babbling Biden, there is no way they are going against their team or the echo chamber to claim Trump will win. Just remember, just like my Ducks, the proclaimed experts will never pick them which is a good sign they will win.

bray :" Pollsters do the same thing; they see what all the other pollsters are showing,
and they will make their poll shadow theirs."

Pollsters are nothing more than thoughtless lemmings,
merely plagiarizing the results.
A few are inventive, and create additional justifications.

I think “identity politics”, like all Democrat “issues”, is completely fake.

They talk about poverty, social justice, racism, BLM, climate change, Covid19, etc., but they don’t actually care about any of those things - they are just opportunities to create divisions, politically exploit and get elected.

Same with electing the first woman of color. They don’t give a crap about that - look at their primaries - it came down to two old white men! If anyone is racist it is the Democrats.

That’s not to say a woman of color won’t get elected - they will certainly run a woman of color - as soon as they find one they think can win or help the ticket. That’s what happened with Obama - he didn’t win because he was black - he won in spite of it.

My God, I believe, I adore, I hope and I love Thee. I beg mercy for those who do not believe, do not adore. do not hope and do not love Thee. Amen

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Amen and Ditto

“That’s what happened with Obama - he didn’t win because he was black - he won in spite of it.”

Except for the above I agree with all you say. Obama won because he was black and a good part of the voting public was ashamed to NOT vote for him lest they feel racist.

Had a white man run instead of Obama and he had the identical experience, backround and policies they would have lost in a landslide.

Thank you for the question. My main reasons are:

1. Polls - I think they are likely to be more accurate this year. There are many reasons for this, the most important being weighting by education. The aggregate polls are showing a consistent and enduring 8-10% lead for Biden, as opposed to a 4-7% inconsistent lead for Clinton in 2016.

2. Low (less than 45%) approval ratings for POTUS.

3. Biden generates less animosity than Hillary Clinton, even among Republicans. He is consistently polling better among whites and particularly white men compared to Clinton.

Of course, a lot can change between now and November. The polls are a snapshot, not a predictor. If the polls are the same in late October as they are today, a big if, I am confident the GOP, led by Trump, will be obliterated in the election.

The shy Trump voter is an ameliorating factor in the above equation. There is no way to know how big this factor is. It would have to be of an unprecedented magnitude (6-8 million votes missed by the polls) for it to be dispositive.

Being black was just one part of a package that propelled Obama to victory:

He was black (sort of).
He ran as a Democrat.
He was young.
He could talk and act just like a prep school white if he wanted to.
He was a clean slate - no history - no records - no legislation - perceived as a Washington DC outsider.

Just being black would have gotten him exactly nowhere, if he hadn’t also had those other “qualifications”.

If just being black did the trick then Condoleezza Rice or Ben Carson would have been elected President :-)

It’s not even enough to be black and a Democrat, or we would have had a President Jesse Jackson or Al Sharpton.

Even being black, young, a Democrat, and talk-like-a-white-preppy isn’t enough - the key was that Obama somehow managed to come out of nowhere with a clean slate.

The next Obama (dream Democrat candidate) may or may not be black.

Why do you think the polls are any better when you have caller ID on every phone and the same people running them?

Biden is a worse candidate than Hilary and she had the first woman going for her. You are no different than the Negative people I dealt with in sports and your subjective analysis.

Polls are never going to show Trump ahead. Don't you understand that the media despises Trump and is doing all they can in their power to keep him from being re-elected? They will NEVER show him as being ahead and if they have to oversample Democrats by +12 to show that Biden is ahead, they will do it. Just as they did for Hillary in 2016.

All Trump supporters have to do is get to the polls in November and Trump will get a second term.

Why do you think the polls are any better when you have caller ID on every phone and the same people running them?

Thanks for the question.

Those facts (caller ID etc.) have been true for a while. And yet, polls have been correct in the 2010 Congressional elections, 2012 Presidential and Congressional elections, 2014 Congressional elections, and 2018 Congressional elections.

Only 2016 was an aberration.

I continue to believe that aggregate polls (not an individual poll) reflect the reality of the electorate more accurately than sentiment on this site.

The media are such IDIOTS by showing Trump down in double digits they are DRIVING Trump supporters to the polls in droves!! I hope they keep it up it is having the exact opposite effect Trump supporters will crawl over broken glass then HOT coals to vote for Trump, Bite me supporters wont do the same SO if they think he is that far ahead they will be as lazy as they usually are and just skip the whole voting thing!!

Excellent point.

I was in NYC on Election Day 2016 and walked by the Javits Center that afternoon. It was a celebratory atmosphere. All those Clinton supporters were so smug and sure of themselves having a big party that night. After all, every media outlet was giving her a 98% chance of winning that morning!

No wonder they were so devastated and in tears just hours later. How I wish I had stayed in the city that night just to stand outside the Fox News building and watch the results come in on the big screens outside - and be a part of history.

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