1. Polls - I think they are likely to be more accurate this year. There are many reasons for this, the most important being weighting by education. The aggregate polls are showing a consistent and enduring 8-10% lead for Biden, as opposed to a 4-7% inconsistent lead for Clinton in 2016.
2. Low (less than 45%) approval ratings for POTUS.
3. Biden generates less animosity than Hillary Clinton, even among Republicans. He is consistently polling better among whites and particularly white men compared to Clinton.
Of course, a lot can change between now and November. The polls are a snapshot, not a predictor. If the polls are the same in late October as they are today, a big if, I am confident the GOP, led by Trump, will be obliterated in the election.
The shy Trump voter is an ameliorating factor in the above equation. There is no way to know how big this factor is. It would have to be of an unprecedented magnitude (6-8 million votes missed by the polls) for it to be dispositive.
Why do you think the polls are any better when you have caller ID on every phone and the same people running them?
Biden is a worse candidate than Hilary and she had the first woman going for her. You are no different than the Negative people I dealt with in sports and your subjective analysis.
All Trump supporters have to do is get to the polls in November and Trump will get a second term.
Rassmussen was the most accurate and it is showing 3% which is margin of error and most Independents don’t decide until 1 week prior.