Posted on 07/18/2020 7:33:24 AM PDT by bray
I will praise thee with uprightness of heart, when I shall have learned thy righteous judgments. Psalm 119:7 (King James Version)
Once again, we have the analysts quoting these phony polls as if they were gospel when they have been proved over and over to have no correlation to election results. You would have a better chance of accuracy of throwing darts blindfolded at a spinning dartboard since it would take out the obvious bias. When you have no idea of what the actual turnout will be for the candidates then you have no idea of the outcome and by all appearances Trump has the motivated angry voters.
I started my writing hobby by making colorful posts on my beloved Oregon Ducks and people were always axing me how I was able to predict wins and seasons so well. One year in particular the entire board and local sports talk radio were predicting a disastrous year for the basketball team and most picked between 8 and 10 wins while I was predicting 21. They ended up winning 28 and getting to the Sweet 16.
This was simply one example, but I did it over and over and have always been the most accurate over the years until the board got woke and became unbearable to write for. The reason I was able to beat the experts and negative fans on the board was by going against groupthink. It really was as simple as that and analyze actual facts rather than repeat the groupthought.
Sports analysts are some of the most overpaid weathermen in the business. If you watch them, they all predict exactly the same teams as everyone else and are wrong about 50-55% of the time. If you were to take the average of predictions of the Super Bowl you would find they are wrong as often as they are right at about 50% and these people are paid millions of dollars to be right when you could do the same thing with a coin.
As a professional sports analyst you want to sound intelligent and knowledgeable so when it comes to picking a winner before the game is played you see who everyone else is choosing and you pick that team. Then you decorate the cake with your reasons which are all subjective but sound legitimate and give solid reasons why this player or that will win the game.
Why is it done that way? Simple economics, if you are all right you look like geniuses but if you are all wrong you can simply say you didn’t see the upset coming and you were all shocked. If you are out on a limb by yourself and you are wrong, then you are stupid and the group makes fun of you. After you miss a few out on the limb by yourself you are out of work and looking for a new career. This means you always go with the groupthink leading up to the game and you will all be right or all shocked with the upset since the better team didn't really win.
Back in the day, I was right around 80% with my Ducks since it was a building program and the experts were always picking against them. Even the fans would pick against them to sound so intelligent and above the fray so they can be pleasantly surprised when they win as they stroked their objective chins. I simply had fun predicting the win all the way to the game and when we won, I was able to enjoy it all the more. When we lost it was twice the gut punch since I was truly sold on winning with no doubt about losing.
There is no difference between sports and election analysts other than sports commentators are not usually rooting for one team to win. They never cry on air when the team they predicted to win by a huge margin gets blown out by the upsetting team. Sports analysts will spend days and weeks explaining the strengths of the upsetting team and how the events occurred so the win happened. They do not spend the next year trashing the team and whining about how their team had the game stolen from them.
Pollsters do the same thing; they see what all the other pollsters are showing, and they will make their poll shadow theirs. They are not going to go out on a limb and be an outlier although some are simply pushing a narrative, they are never going to go against the grain so the Dem will always be in the lead if all the others show that. They know they will never have to explain what they got wrong so they make their polls and analysis look and sound like the group so they can all be right or shocked they missed something and all wrong.
Sports gurus will never go out on a limb more than once or twice in their lives for fear of losing face, political talking faces all belong to the same team and are going to echo the same message. To say Trump is going to win reelection will get you out on the smallest of limbs and nobody wants to be out there if the group is right.
How was I able to predict games at 80%, my Ducks won at around 80-90% it was just that the Debbie Downers were more interested in sounding intelligent than truly analyzing the teams. They were more afraid of going against the group and having to really point out strengths and weaknesses than simply repeating the echo chamber and saying how good the favorite was and how they beat such and such a team while ignoring the teams my Ducks had beaten. Back then, every team was good until Oregon beat them and then they were a lousy team since they lost to the Ducks.
You see the same thing in politics. Everyone is assuming Trump is losing and are reading the talking points of why. Even though 2016 should be fresh in their mind they have the same fake polls they used last time and the same polls which are wrong more than 60% worldwide and run around as a gaggle of geese hoping for a DNC win.
The analysts from the Conservative side are so intimidated from being outsiders they will not climb out on that limb and predict a Trump win even when it is staring them in the face. Which swing voter is not better off today than they were under Obama/Biden? That is all that matters.
So once again I am risking my 7 Presidential election streak and officially predicting a Trump reelection. My reasons are the incumbent is hard to beat since who wants to change horses in the middle of a flooded stream? Who would want to ride a dead horse? The economy is doing very well even with the virus and most are going to vote their wallets. The Christian vote is going to come out stronger than it did last time, and blacks are not buying BLM and are going to vote Trump between 30-50% as he goes after them like no Republican ever has.
This is real analysis and not the pap you see by the talking hair. These are real reasons although they need to be pushed with a solid grassroots campaign, but how you can look at these two candidates and not say Trump is the favorite is either pure bias or fear of going going out on that limb. This is as easy as picking my Ducks against overrated Florida State in the Rose Bowl. Who had FSU beaten, and my Ducks were loaded which is why they won 59-20 while I was doing the tomahawk chop in the endzone.
I was the minority who picked against the majority and loved every minute leading up to the game and the win. I also picked Trump to win the minute he gave his speech after coming down the escalator who could read America like no other politician. He talks to the common man and not the pundiots who are offended by that. This is why I picked 44 of 50 states correctly and they were seen crying on the screen the night of the election being wrong on 20 of 50. If these people were picked on accomplishments, they would be replaced but that is not how the media complex works.
As hard as it is you have to ignore the propagandists and realize they are really cowards to not go against the groupthink. Even though they likely have huge doubts listening to babbling Biden, there is no way they are going against their team or the echo chamber to claim Trump will win. Just remember, just like my Ducks, the proclaimed experts will never pick them which is a good sign they will win.
Pray for the election
I was one of the only people I know who confidently said Trump would win in 2016. It’s the Dim cheating that has me worried this time. A little well-placed cheating in swing states, most of which are run by Democrats, can turn this one. The Dims were complacent in 2016 and were not prepared to manufacture the votes they needed. They won’t make that mistake again. We need to have massive Republican turnout in the swing states in order to achieve a cheat-proof majority.
Thanks for being negative and being above the fray. You go back to your groupthink doomsday crowd and lecture everyone about our upcoming loss. You can act surprised when he wins.
You made all my points far better than I did. You think you are the only one who is looking for fraud by mail?
Every incumbent that lost since WWII had to fight off serious opposition from their own party.
Ford had Reagan
Carter had Ted Kennedy
Geo h w Bush had Pat Buchanan
Several Never Trumpers, like Weld, put their names on GOP ballots this year, but they did not get any votes
This would be the first time a united incumbent party lost since WWII if Trump were to lose.
I think the vast majority of Americans understand this and will not allow the USA to be destroyed.
Democrat voter fraud is the greatest single thing Americans have to fear. Voter intimidation also, perhaps foreign interference, but mostly voter fraud.
Debbie Downers are exactly who I was talking about. It is easier to predict a loss than a win when the group is against you.
Walk Away Movement Is Surging - Skip ahead to 2:40 if you want to skip commercials
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LHlAcgQjV94
Patriots are reminded that PDJT cannot fire the worthless Congress left over from the lawless Obama Administration. That’s the responsibility of us ordinary voters.
Send “Orange Man Bad” federal and state government desperate Democrats and RINOs home in November!
Supporting PDJT with a new patriot Congress and state government leaders that will promise to fully support his already excellent work for MAGA and stopping SARS-CoV-2 will effectively give fast-working Trump a “third term” in office imo.
Is the GOP united? A phalanx of former administration officials, former military generals who served this administration, sitting Senators, sitting Congressmen, former GOP Presidents, all rooting against Trump.
Carter did not have such a solid groundswell of Democratic opposition in 1980, nor did GHW Bush face such stubborn and widespread GOP opposition in 1992.
It is near impossible to beat an incumbent and a unified Party which this is from being called racists for 4 years. The Independents don’t decide until the last week but it is likely they are going to stay where they were 4 years ago and more will come on board.
Everyone hates their boss but they put up with him for a paycheck. Trump has done more for the working man than the last 10 presidents.
Who is getting cocky? I am going completely against the grain and a 1 pt win is as good as a 20. You think we should go around flogging ourselves to be serious?
It is nearly impossible to change candidates at this point especially with a lead in the polls. Bernie would claim the rightful spot and there would be a large group pushing him.
Thus, in social situations, you actually have Trump supporters nodding their heads and pretending to agree when Trump is being bashed. In November, they will vote for Trump and "pretend" to be surprised with the rest of the lemmings when he wins, in order to stay in favor with the group think mob.
I do agree with your analysis on the election. I cannot think of a single state that Trump won in 2016 that he will lose in 2020. He will likely win these states by even larger margins and perhaps pick up a few other states that were close wins for Hillary in 2016.
So Trump supporters may be "nodding" their heads at summer barbecues when their Leftist neighbors go on anti-Trump rants. But these same people are angry and motivated and will vote for Trump in November all the same.
‘even if I don’t share your conclusion.’
it is way, way, way too early to come to any conclusions; it is now July 18, and the conventions are a full month away...come back after the conventions, and whatever if any bounce they provide (not much this year, scaled down as thy are), say, around early september, and if the polls look the way they do now, yeah I would say your pessimism maybe could be justified...
Agree.
Well said.
I am proud to say that I did the same thing in 2015 the first time I heard one of Donald Trump’s politically incorrect zingers. I thought: “There has got to be a HUGE pent up appetite for a leader with the balls to challenge the PC police. I can’t be the only one thrilled to be hearing this.”
My pro Trump siblings congratulated me on Election Day for being so early, outspoken and encouraging with my prediction of a solid Trump victory.
I did it the same way you described: just ignore the group think and look at the realities.
I agree that the same thing is happening again in 2020, maybe even more so. President Trump made all the right promises and has kept them. Biden is a pathetic loser. Only a few incumbents have lost a reelection bid in modern history.
In 1980, Jimmy Carter was so outmatched by Ronald Reagan that it wasn’t even a fair fight. Does anyone think that Biden is the next RR? Nobody.
George Bush Senior lost in 1992 because he had to split the pro business Republican vote with Ross Perot, whose third party challenge won an unprecedented 20%. Is there anything remotely similar happening now? No. And let’s face it: Bill Clinton was a sleaze bag con artist, but an effective one. He had a lot of people fooled. Is Biden fooling anyone? No.
In 1976, Gerald Ford was an incumbent - but not an elected incumbent. That makes a huge difference because Ford did not have his own “earned” voter base - he had inherited a tainted voter base from the recently humiliated Richard Nixon. Right or wrong, I think a lot of voters thought of Ford’s defeat as part of Nixon’s punishment. Another unique example that does not apply to the current scenario.
Group think predictions are always watered down averages, and they are too risk-averse to be of any use.
Thank you for articulating it so well.
You are my new best friend.
Right now I think most conservatives are biting nails, fearful to even relax at night, figureing out what we will do IF the election turns south, worrying about mail in voting fraud.........
Your comments are a breath of fresh air.
May it be so, is my prayer.
My father, who was a lifelong conservative, pulled the lever for Carter in 1976 for that very reason. He didn't care about the Watergate nonsense but felt that Nixon threw a lot of good people under the bus in order to protect himself.
Plus Carter was a southern boy and my father was born and raised near Plains, GA. Carter swept the Deep South. If not for that, Ford would have won easily.
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