Every incumbent that lost since WWII had to fight off serious opposition from their own party.
Ford had Reagan
Carter had Ted Kennedy
Geo h w Bush had Pat Buchanan
Several Never Trumpers, like Weld, put their names on GOP ballots this year, but they did not get any votes
This would be the first time a united incumbent party lost since WWII if Trump were to lose.
Is the GOP united? A phalanx of former administration officials, former military generals who served this administration, sitting Senators, sitting Congressmen, former GOP Presidents, all rooting against Trump.
Carter did not have such a solid groundswell of Democratic opposition in 1980, nor did GHW Bush face such stubborn and widespread GOP opposition in 1992.
It is near impossible to beat an incumbent and a unified Party which this is from being called racists for 4 years. The Independents don’t decide until the last week but it is likely they are going to stay where they were 4 years ago and more will come on board.
Everyone hates their boss but they put up with him for a paycheck. Trump has done more for the working man than the last 10 presidents.