Posted on 07/09/2020 8:30:05 PM PDT by SmokingJoe
Skip the first 2 minutes to avoid his commercials.
Nice piece from Dr Steve Hurley. Highlights.
1. New Express poll has Trump tied with Biden at 47% each.
2. In case you think it's an outlier, Zogby also had a poll June 30th with Trump and Biden tied at 46% each. (Not to mention the Harris poll which had the gap between Biden and Trump down to just 4%).
3. The Express poll had Trump on course to win the crucial swing states including Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin where Trump outpolls Biden by 48 percent to 44 percent.
4. Express poll: Given a choice between which phrases identified their views 71 percent chose “all lives matter” while 29 percent picked “black lives matter”. 77% are against defunding the police. Overwhelming numbers are against destruction of statues.
5. Historically, riots have always led to big swings to Republicans in voting. Reagan beat Gov Jerry Brown in a landslide in 1966 after the Watts riots for example.
6. Most polls under count White non college educated males who make up the strongest base for Trump. Politico did a piece on that recently.
7. In 2016, Trump did so well with non college education White male, he'd have won even if Hilary Clinton had the same Black voter turn out as Obana did.
8. Trump won over 200 counties that voted twice for Obama and in some cases hadn't voted Republican since the 1980’s mostly due to rural non college educated Whites.
Bottom line: Trump is poised to put Slow Joe out of business come November.
Worth watching if you have a minute or two.
(Excerpt) Read more at youtu.be ...
That the Express is conservative is a good thing. But when you’re looking at polls the most important thing is accuracy, not agreement. Though the Democracy Inst (the Express poller) got both Trump’s first election and Brexit right.
It shouldn’t take long to see if there’s a swing back to Trump. Should see further evidence this month if it’s happening.
Bump
True, but it’s impossible to have 40% approval and then get 8% of the vote.
It just doesn’t add up.
“Perhaps he has polling info internally that the vast majority of Americans now support all that? Seems that way to me. Cause people aren’t rising up against it in ANY way.”
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I’m not sure how they would show it. If someone says he’s against rioting and arson, he risks getting fired and his family being terrorized. And if people who are opposed to rioting and mayhem just aren’t likely to take to the streets themselves.
It may be that we’ll see the “Bradley Effect” at play in coming months and in the election as the way to rebel. Who knows?
Once people are afraid of answering even the tiniest truth on a phone call, it’s over. This country is over.
Seriously?
All the soul crushing, freedom stifling, end of america as we know it things on the dim agenda and our most serious question is how uncle joe will negotiate with foreign nations???
Well, the answer is uncle joe can not negotiate his order at the Burger King drive thru. His "staffers" will decide everything based on how they can make most money off Japan, china will get whatever they want for the pay off as well. They will wheel uncle joe in for the photo op and hair sniffing at the end.
quitting is the biggest killer of a campaign. Look at how Ross perot quit and then rejoined the campaign in 1992. It wiped out his support as reflected in polling.
Basically the media and basement Joe needs/wants trump to make a big blunder and is encouraging him to do it.
That’s the worst of it all. The popularity of a very mentally disabled man as a presidential candidate.
The only thing you can say is they’d vote for Satan instead of not voting or for Trump. And that’s the truth.
I don’t know why but Rasmussen polls seem to take 2-3 weeks after an event to show in their polls. Always has over the years.
Long night?
Try long weeks.
Mail in voting is going to be a nightmare. Democrats are going to demand that any vote postmarked after the election be tallied because "every vote counts".
We won't know for a week or more who won. Even after a winner is declared no one will trust the results.
Tucker Carlson has been much more effective against Biden than the Trump campaign or the Republican Party. He is extremely effective. No surprise Biden went after Tucker yesterday and his campaign is putting pressure on Fox to get rid of Tucker.
The thing is Brad Parscale may not be a war time consiglieri (to borrow from the Godfather). He is great with the online/IT stuff. He is just not effectively hitting Slow Joe rjght now. And there is a VAST amount of stuff to hit Biden with.
It may be time to bring back KellyAnne if her dopey husband doesn't go too crazy. At least as co chair.
You are right.
“We won’t know for a week or more who won. Even after a winner is declared no one will trust the results.”
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Took over a month for the 2000 election to be settled and people are still mad about how that ended. Could go as long or longer this time, unless it’s an obvious blowout landslide early on.
“Once people are afraid of answering even the tiniest truth on a phone call, it’s over.”
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I’ve never told strangers nuthin over the phone. Except if to tell them if they called the wrong number.
Nothing? No buying or dealing with banks on the phone ever? I find that hard to believe.
This is a totally different era of political cleansing and prosecution. There’s been nothing like it since the 50’s, and they were right back then.
“Nothing? No buying or dealing with banks on the phone ever? I find that hard to believe.”
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Nope - and most certainly no personal or financial information.I’m not giving out my private info to any Tom, Dick or Harry who demands it.
Also, giving out your financial info to strangers over the phone is pretty much strongly discouraged by every bank I’ve ever had an account with.
I honestly don’t flat out believe you’ve never done a financial transaction in your life. I mean, you have to have at some point. Unless you’re totally off grid, but you’d not be on FR if so.
“I honestly don’t flat out believe you’ve never done a financial transaction in your life.”
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I didn’t say that. You asked about giving personal financial information to strangers over the telephone. As I said, banks (and pretty much everyone else) don’t recommend that and I was never dumb enough to do it to begin with. Fools and their money, after all.
Nobody should give financial info freely, but you were acting all high and mighty about NEVER doing it period. I hate the high and mighty attitude stuff.
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